If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Oklahoma Sooners (0-2, 1-1 SEC) take on the No. 1 Texas Longhorns (4-0, 1-0) for another edition of the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma has struggled to get going this season, led by the downfall of quarterback John Mateer. Mateer has had problems holding onto the ball thus far, as the Sooners have fumbled six times this season and lost all six.
He'll look to get back to his Heisman Trophy contender ways against the top-ranked Texas Longhorns and Will Muschamp's defense.
The Longhorns, meanwhile, enter this game ranked No. 1, which can be largely attributed to their incredible over Ohio State in Week 2.
Texas is coming off a close 20-17 win over Tennessee two weeks ago.
While the Longhorns haven't been knocked off yet, quarterback Arch Manning's numbers aren't too far off from Mateer. Perhaps that's why this spread comes in at one possession, with Texas favored by 7.5 and the over/under sitting at 39.5.
So, who holds the advantage?
We polled nine of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our Oklahoma vs. Texas and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 10.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Oklahoma vs. Texas Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Texas -7.5
By Joshua Nunn
This line has ballooned to Texas -8.5, and most of our staff agrees with the move.
The Oklahoma offense has been disastrous since the opening week of the season against UTEP, with an output of 13 points while ranking outside of the top 100 nationally in Offensive Success Rate and explosiveness.
Quarterback John Mateer has not developed as a passer over the last two seasons after coming over from Washington State, and the receiver group isn't making plays in the clutch.
More concerning is the lack of rushing production, with Oklahoma averaging 75 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry over the last three weeks.
There's very little likelihood of the Sooners effectively running football against the Longhorns' defensive front, so Mateer will have to make plays in the pocket in medium- to long-yardage situations where the Texas defensive line should feast.
Oklahoma is converting just 18% of third-down attempts against Power 4 competition and went back-to-back games against Michigan and New Mexico without scoring a red-zone touchdown. It's hard to imagine that Texas is going to allow this offense to score many points on Saturday.
The Texas offense caught life in the fourth quarter against Ohio State, but this bunch hasn't overwhelmed in follow-up performances.
The Longhorns will have to see Arch Manning make plays against a secondary that ranks 12th in explosiveness surrendered and 22nd in Passing Success Rate allowed.
OU is going to have to gamble at times, which could leave the secondary exposed trying to cover Texas’s excellent receiver trio of Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman and Emmett Mosley V. One or two explosive plays could be back-breaking against this Oklahoma defense.
There's a massive field-position disparity here with Texas ranking in the top 20 nationally in average starting field position, while OU ranks 136th. If OU is backed up and the Texas defense is feasting, a defensive touchdown or short punt could lead to an immediate change in game flow in favor of the Horns.
I can see this team extending the lead in the fourth quarter to win this game by double digits.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Over/Under Pick
Over 39.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 39.5 | 2 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Over 39.5
The Red River Rivalry probably won’t live up to its billing as an offensive shootout.
Yet, the Texas vs. Oklahoma total Saturday is simply too low to not take the over. Two-thirds of the Action staff essentially believes these two teams can combine for at least 40 points.
The Sooners and top-ranked Longhorns will play the lowest over/under of any game in Week 6 (39.5).
Texas and Oklahoma boast identical spread and over/under records: The Sooners and Longhorns are both 1-3 against the spread and 3-1 to the under, which immediately highlights both teams’ concerns moving the football.
The Longhorns rank No. 87 nationally in yards per play (5.1). Oklahoma, which hasn’t scored more than 14 points in three straight games, comes in at No. 95 (5.0).
Saturday’s the second-lowest total for Oklahoma under Brett Venables. Last year, LSU-Oklahoma closed at 35.5.
Of course, this game’s drawing heavy interest via Action’s betting data. It’s the third-most bet game of Saturday’s Week 6. With more than 17,000 tickets submitted, 78% of the tickets and 78% of the money is on the over.
The Sooners offense has been on a milk carton recently in the series. They’ve scored six points or fewer in three of the last four. The Action team expects things to change Saturday.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Player Prop Pick
John Mateer Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-115)
Even with health back on his side, John Mateer has looked like a shell of his Washington State self.
Not only has he struggled to connect with his pass-catchers, but Mateer has also generated turnover-worthy plays at a stunningly high rate, plummeting Oklahoma’s chances of competing in the SEC.
Mateer’s lack of production under center is reflected in the Sooners' metrics on offense, limping into the Red River Rivalry ranked near the bottom of the board in Success Rate, Explosiveness and Havoc Allowed.
Mateer’s inability to take care of the ball makes the Sooners vulnerable to stalling out, leading to empty trips.
Heading into a highly anticipated matchup against Texas, Mateer’s struggles in the pocket are poised to persist while battling it out against a secondary that thrives in coverage, with top-35 marks in Pass Success Rate allowed, PPA allowed and Explosiveness allowed.
With a body expected to be near the point of contact, the Longhorns will be able to continue to disrupt Mateer, making it difficult for him to connect with his wideouts.
The Longhorns' pressure up front will also give Mateer less time in the pocket, forcing him to either throw on the run shortly after the snap or extend the play with his legs.
When forced to get the ball out of his hand quickly, the Sooners will struggle to break away from their assignments at the line of scrimmage, lowering their chances of creating an explosive play.
If Mateer can take off and run, every carry will chip away at his total number of pass attempts, improving the probability he stays under the total on his longest completion prop.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 39.5 -105o / -115u | +260 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 39.5 -105o / -115u | -325 |
