Bournemouth vs. Brentford Betting Preview: Low-Scoring Affair Expected on Saturday (October 1)

Bournemouth vs. Brentford Odds

Bournemouth look to take their unlikely unbeaten run under caretaker boss Gary O'Neil to four games when they host Brentford on Saturday.

Last season's second-place finishers in the League Championship parted with previous manager Scott Parker following a 9-0 away defeat to Liverpool. They've taken five points from nine since, and could have had more if not for an unlucky penalty conceded in a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United last time out.

Brentford have started their second season in the top flight brightly, with only two defeats in their first seven. However, the Bees were brought back to earth in a 3-0 manhandling at home again an Arsenal side that have the look of title contenders.

This is the teams' first-ever top flight league meeting for these teams, according to 11v11.com. Their last tussle came when Brentford defeated Bournemouth 3-2 on aggregate over two legs of a League Championship promotion playoff semifinal in 2021.

Bournemouth Seeing Real Improvement

So how exactly has O'Neil helped change Bournemouth's course?

For starters, he had the good sense to wait until after a brutal stretch of games to take over.

Bournemouth ran a three-game gauntlet of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, finishing the stretch with three losses and a -16 goal differential.

But, Parker's dismissal appeared related as much to a feud with club hierarchy as with on-the-field performances (though the nature of Bournemouth's effort against Liverpool may have been linked to that feud).

O'Neil has righted the ship so far against less elite opposition, but the underlying metrics suggest the real improvement — if it exists — is incremental.

The Cherries played to a -6.1 expected goal differential (xGDiff) in four matches under Parker, and a -2.9 xGDiff under O'Neil.

Brentford Reaching New Levels

It was once unthinkable for a player from Brentford to earn a call-up to the England national team.

But after Ivan Toney joined the Three Lions roster, Bees manager Thomas Frank is hoping the 26-year-old will re-channel that into his club form.

Toney has already been exceptional, scoring five goals and assisting two more, meaning he's been involved in just under half of Brentford's 15 goals scored this league season.

That's helped the Bees absorb the summer move of midfielder Christian Eriksen to Manchester United. When Eriksen was available and match fit late last season, he helped Brentford to a stretch of seven wins in their final 10 games.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

For a team that plays as openly Brentford, the price on the total over 2.5 goals at -105 odds may feel appealing.

However, the early data suggests it's not.

Teams have created about 1.7 combined xG per 90 minutes in Bournemouth's first three home matches. The usually over-matched Cherries are struggling even more to create chances in front of their home fans. But perhaps the home support is also steeling their defense.

Additionally, teams are creating about 2.2 combined xG per 90 minutes in Brentford's first three away games. When the Bees' away games have been higher scoring, it's because they've out-performed those totals.

One more thought here. High tempo teams like Brentford sometimes tend toward higher-scoring performances away. Generally, a home team that feels an impetus to attack can play into an opponent like the Bees who want to play in transition.

But survival-minded Bournemouth won't fit that profile and will probably implore the visitors to try and find the game.

It's not sexy, but a low total is a play here. At -130 odds, the implied 56.5 probability of the bet is lower than what you'd expect given the meager xG splits above.

The Pick: Total under 2.5 goals (-130)