Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, September 24.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- K.Leahy Under 4.5 (-125), 0.63u | Bet to -135
- Braves F5 -180, 1u | Bet to -200
- Padres +160, 0.5u | Bet to +145
Cardinals @ Pirates Picks
We have so little information the last few days of the season that of 12 scheduled games on Thursday, only six of them currently have lines as of this writing, which is began at 9 pm ET.
This is one of the lucky few that are on the board with two recently eliminated teams play out the four game string, which includes this early Thursday contact.
The Cardinals have been true to their intentions of limiting Kyle Leahy down the stretch, having not allowed him to surpass four innings in five straight starts in which he’s failed to complete the batting order twice.
He hasn’t exceeded three innings in any of his last four starts and has been piggybacked by Cooper Hjerpe in each of his last three.
As such, Leahy hasn’t exceeded four strikeouts in four of his last five starts either, the exception being a start at Coors where he struck out six of 14 Rockies.
This season, Leahy has struck out same-handed batters 23.8% of the time, but LHBs only 20.4% of the time. Even conservatively projecting 17 batters (the number of batters he faced last time out in just three innings), that would mean 12 from the left-hand side if BARTOLO’s projected lineup is correct (I substituted Henry Davis in at catcher for the early start after a night game).
The first 17 batters in the projected Pittsburgh lineup average a 21.9 K% vs RHP, which is around league average, so we’re already below five strikeouts even if Leahy makes two full trips through this lineup.
The environment is unlikely to affect strikeouts much, but the park, scheduled umpire and early forecast do suggest a further suppression from 3-5% and we certainly welcome any help.
I have two concerns here, keeping me from investing a full unit. First is that the Pirates may plan for the left-handed follower with an altered lineup. Second is that the Pirates could simply post an unexpected lineup in a meaningless early game.
Since Leahy has averaged 14.2 batters faced over his last five starts, the second point is likely a more realistic concern than the first, but I still can’t project Leahy for a 30% strikeout rate here, which is what it would take if he were to face fewer than 18 batters.
Pick: K.Leahy Under 4.5 (-125), 0.63u | Bet to -135
Reds @ Braves Picks
With the Braves having clinched the NL East and sitting five games behind the Dodgers at the start of play on Wednesday, they appear to be locked into the 3rd seed in the National League, making this a meaningless game.
Also pretty meaningless, Brady Singer’s entire second half. He’s allowed at least three runs in 11 straight starts and now 21 over his last 12.1 innings with 15 walks and eight strikeouts. Maybe it merits mentioning that all three of those starts were against the two teams the Braves trail in NL seeding, but you can go as far back as Singer’s last start of June and come up with a 6.44 ERA and 5.80 xERA since then.
Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Singer this season with LHBs above .360.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been absent since being hit in the leg on Tuesday, but appears to be fine. The Braves probably want to keep him in some sort of rhythm and there’s speculation he should be back sooner than later. He does lead the projected lineup with a 179 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Even without him, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris and Matt Olson all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .190 ISO against RHP, while Mike Yastrzemski (98, .166) has been perfectly average. Singer’s pitching might make everyone below average look average.
The projected defense behind him breaks down to -5 FRV with the infield being responsible for any positive value.
The Cincinnati bullpen is third worst in the league over the last 30 days with a 5.04 FIP, 4.7 xFIP and 4.17 SIERA. BARTOLO only ranks them a few spots better at 25th.
Chris Sale threw 97 pitches in a meaningless game on Wednsday, which gives some confidence in seeing at least five innings out of Tyler Mahle on Thursday.
He’s been on fire since joining the Braves, allowing just nine runs (seven earned) over 49.1 innings with a 19.7 K-BB% and just 5.1% Barrels/BBE. That breaks down to a 1.28 ERA, 3.38 xERA and 3.27 xFIP.
Mahle is probably going to want to go into the post-season continuing on that role and the projected Cincinnati lineup should give him every chance, averaging an 80 wRC+ on the road, 81 wRC+ vs RHP and 78 wRC+ over the last month.
Say all you want above Elly De La Cruz (231 wRC+ L30 days) and Sal Stewart (109), but this projected lineup includes five batters no higher than a 75 wRC+ over the last month with three batters below 5.
The Braves project a solid defense (13 FRV), while the bullpen has been middle of the league over the last month (4.08 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA). BARTOLO ranks them 5th best on the season.
I value Mahle a run and one-third better than Singer right now. With Acuna in the lineup, I have the Braves more than 20 points better (wRC+) than the Reds. If I replace him with an 85 wRC+ across the board, I still get nearly 15 points.
Add in 18 FRV and around two-thirds of a run via bullpens and I have the Braves winning this game around 70% of the time.
However, I also have them around 70% win the first five innings too. Not only does that market offer a better price, but I feel better about projecting Mahle’s five innings than bullpen usage in a meaningless game.
Pick: Braves F5 -180, 1u | Bet to -200
Padres @ Dodgers Picks
After missing most of the season, Nick Pivetta has returned for seven starts with his velocity intact at 94 mph and a 23.3 K-BB% that would be the best of his career, as would be his 35.9 HardHit%.
Although he’s held a K-BB above 19% each of the previous three seasons, his worst and only time below 20% being last season, his first with San Diego, Pivetta has had hard hit rates above 43% in three of the previous four seasons and double digit barrel rates for three straight seasons. 9.0% Barrels/BBE this year would mark his second lowest rate since leaving Philly.
Tyler Glasnow has made only 12 starts and been even more exceptional with a 24.2 K-BB% and 39.2 HardHit% (8.5% Barrels/BBE), all of which align with career rates.
These pitchers have very similar small sample numbers this season, though I have to give Glasnow at least a slight edge for his larger body of superior work.
With the Dodger lineup fully healthy (or at least present) again, we’re looking at a projected nine averaging a 118 wRC+ on the road, 119 wRC+ against RHP and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
However, we’re also looking at their San Diego counterparts averaging a 115 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+ against RHP and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Xander Bogaerts (95) and Jake Cronenworth are the only below average Padres against RHP this year. As much as I didn’t expect to see Samad Taylor (156), Ty France (146) and Luis Campusano (129) leading the charge, just about everyone else started so poorly, that it’s a victory to have them all reach 100 by the end of the season.
Jackson Merrill (152 wRC+ L30 days) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (133) have really turned their season around.
While the Dodgers project a solid defense (8 FRV), the Padres project 23 FRV better.
These teams also have the 2nd (Dodgers) and 3rd (Padres) best bullpen estimators over the last 30 days with BARTOLO ranking them 3rd (Dodgers) and 4th (Padres) in their season numbers.
Projected lineups are even separated by just 1 BRR (Base Running Runs).
I’m failing to see the separation that makes the Dodgers a significant favorite here. I have them closer to 55% (full game and F5), perhaps even less if Ohtani is still physically compromised.
The great caveat here is that the Padres and Dodgers have only played two on Wednesday night as this is being written and if San Diego should win, they may not be playing for much, though Wild Card seeding (all three spots) is still completely up for grabs.
Yet, so is the number one spot in the National League, should the Dodgers and Brewers look to compete for it.
Although I’m conflicted between calling this a lean or posting it as a play right now, with Novig currently floating 38.5% (or +160), I’m going to aggressively fire here on matchup alone without being sure of the stakes.
I might advise a bit more caution for those playing this on a more traditional sportsbook without the ability to trade out as easily.
Pick: Padres +160, 0.5u | Bet to +145
