Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Including Chelsea vs Brighton

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Including Chelsea vs Brighton article feature image

LEICESTER, ENGLAND – MARCH 11: Mateo Kovacic of Chelsea celebrates with Kai Havertz. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

The Premier League title, top four and relegation battles are as close as they can be heading into another fantastic slate of Premier League action.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Aston Villa vs Newcastle

Aston Villa Odds+260
Newcastle Odds+105
Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | TimeSaturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Aston Villa have been running way too hot recently, especially defensively. Over their last seven matches they’ve allowed their opponents to create 8 xG, but their opponents have only put the ball in the back of the net twice.

Aston Villa also run into problems when they have to face good pressing teams because of Unai Emery’s insistence on playing out from the back. Against Chelsea, they got overwhelmed by the counter-press, as Chelsea had a PPDA of 4.6, a 30% counter-press success rate and allowed seven high turnovers.

Newcastle are top five in the Premier League in both PPDA and high turnovers. Although it was under a different manager, the last time they faced Aston Villa they gave them all sorts of problems with their press and in transition.

The Magpies have been on fire offensively as of late. Since the 2-0 loss to Manchester City, they’ve ripped off four straight wins and have created 12.5 xG in those matches. Alexander Isak is also in incredible form at the moment and is the reason why their attack has improves so drastically, as he’s scored eight goals and created 6.4 xG in just nine full 90s.

Aston Villa’s defense under Unai Emery has not been good either when they have to play good competition. They had two really good defensive performances in his first two matches in charge against both Manchester United and Brighton, but in seven matches with him in charge against the top half of the Premier League table, Aston Villa have allowed 13.1 xG.

I have 2.75 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+105)

Chelsea vs Brighton

Chelsea Odds+162
Brighton Odds+162
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Another week, another bet on Chelsea to score goals for me. The Blues lost to Wolves last week and were outplayed in the Champions League at Real Madrid. I’m targeting goals in this matchup, not only because Chelsea remain due for an attacking outbreak based on their performances, but because Brighton play a style that can force even the most boring defensive possession teams into a high tempo and high octane clash.

The Seagulls lost a dramatic 2-1 game at Spurs last weekend despite creating more than 1.5 xG. Brighton have the best attack in the Premier League since Roberto de Zerbi became manager and they do that by inviting pressure in their own half and then breaking said pressure to create chances.

Spurs have played plenty of low event matches of late vs West Ham, Chelsea, Milan and Everton. Brighton forced them into an up tempo and chaotic match and the game could have had four or five goals without some controversial decisions.

My projections have 2.71 goals for this match and I’ll bet over 2.5 at -115 or better.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-110 via bet365)

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United

Nottingham Forest Odds+450
Manchester United Odds-163
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Manchester United have been a well below average team away from home this season and they’re in a tricky spot at Nottingham Forest on Sunday. The Red Devils are in the middle of their competitive Europa League matchup with Sevilla (2-2 aggregate) and are likely to be without Marcus Rashford once again. United have a -0.42 xG differential on the road per 90 minutes and even with Casemiro and Christian Eriksen returning to the team, there’s a real question of whether United will produce enough consistent shots to get margin in this matchup.

United only managed 12 shots in the match at home against Sevilla on Thursday without Rashford’s 2.98 shots per 90. Antony takes a lot of shots from distance, but Wout Weghorst, Jadon Sancho and Antony as a potential front three of attackers is light on high quality shot production. Erik ten Hag could turn to Anthony Martial to solve this problem, but even he is just returning from injury and doesn’t link the play nearly as well as Weghorst.

Rashford’s red-hot form has made United look better than the team actually is, and that could get exposed at Forest. The Trees have been a league average side at home based on xG difference and they’re undervalued to get at least a point here.

Pick: Nottingham Forest +1 (-130 via BetRivers)

Leeds United vs Liverpool

Leeds Odds+320
Liverpool Odds-138
Over/Under2.5 (-175 / +137)
Day | TimeMonday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Since Javi Garcia has taken over at Leeds, they’ve been abysmal defensively. In his seven matches in charge they have allowed a whopping 14.9 xG. It hit rock bottom this past weekend when Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace put five in the back of the net against them.

Their pressing numbers are down a tad from what they were under Jesse Marsch because they’ve played a lot of top sides and are trying to have more defensive structure. It hasn’t worked because the roster as currently constructed is not set up to be a low block defensive type team, especially with Tyler Adams injured.

Liverpool had their best offensive performance of the season against Arsenal, creating 4.4 xG. The Reds have looked better and better offensively lately and Jurgen Klopp inverted Trent Alexander Arnold into the midfield against Arsenal, which provided Liverpool with more ball progression going forward.

Even though the Reds have gone through rough patches this season, this is still one of the best offenses in the Premier League. They're averaging 1.74 npxG per 90 minutes and have created 43 big scoring chances in their 29 matches. Having Luis Diaz healthy only makes this attack more dangerous and for Liverpool to be at their best the match has to be fast paced and played in transition, that is the exact type of match where Leeds are at their best as well.

I have 3.71 goals projected for this match, and I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3 (-106 via BetRivers)

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