Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, September 23.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Nationals vs Tigers — NRFI
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
- Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Braves -1.5
- Braves F5 -0.5
- Ronald Acuna Over 2.5 HRR
Nationals vs Tigers Picks
Veteran left-hander Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Tigers on Wednesday afternoon in a spot where I expect reverse platoon splits to play a key role. On the other side, left-handed reliever Richard Lovelady (3-4, 3.86 ERA, 30 SO) gets the call to open a bullpen game for the Nationals.
Despite Valdez's vast struggles this season, posting an ERA upwards of 3.66 (4.06) for just the second time in his nine-year MLB career, the former Astro is set to face a Nats lineup loaded with left-handed hitters.
In 15 previous at-bats against Valdez, Washington’s lineup has collectively recorded just a single hit, given the likes of CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Daylen Lile, among others who boast far superior splits versus righties.
While I expect Valdez's inherent edge over the top of the Nats’ lineup to produce a scoreless first inning, the Nationals' side of the NRFI equation hinges on Lovelady set up as an opener.
The 29-year-old southpaw features heavy home-and-away and platoon splits that make him an ideal opener to get through Detroit's top of the order cleanly before handing the ball over to the Washington relief corps.
Given Valdez’s matchup advantages and a scripted, short-burst opening stint for Lovelady, look for both pitching setups to navigate the frame quietly early on.
Picks: NRFI (-122)
Brewers vs Phillies Picks
Logan Henderson takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers, while the Philadelphia Phillies will start veteran right-hander Aaron Nola.
Despite the longtime Phillie having completely turned around his 2026 campaign following the All-Star break, I still expect Brewers’ youngster Jackson Chourio to have a massive night at the plate on Wednesday.
In eight previous ABs against Nola, Chourio has recorded two hits — one of which was a solo home run.
Aside from his slight edge in their head-to-head encounters, Chourio matches up well with Nola’s primary pitch mix on the mound.
Nola’s premier offering — a 78.4 VELO Curve thrown at a 33.2% USG per BARTOLO — has been a lot more consistent in recent weeks after a trying season.
Nola frequently falls behind early in counts when missing his spots, which has resulted in him having to rely far more on his high-velocity offerings to throw strikes.
This could be a recipe for disaster versus a slugger of Chourio’s caliber. He is known for an aggressive, early-count approach where he frequently jumps on first-pitch offerings — often fastballs — to do heavy damage.
He also has an exceptional knack for punishing breaking and offspeed pitches, keeping opposing pitchers from being able to safely rely on secondary stuff to get him out.
Also, Nola's 4-seam fastball and sinker have resulted in opposing hitters recording elevated xwOBA at .387 and .382, respectively.
If Nola fails to expand the zone, keeping both his curve and high-velocity stuff down, Chourio’s tremendous versatility, patience and raw power at the plate should give him a massive edge over the aging Phils’ righty.
Picks:
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR (-131)
- Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run (+498)
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Reds vs Braves Picks
Lefty ace Chris Sale will take the mound for the Braves on Wednesday evening while the Reds will trot out Andrew Abbott in a southpaw duel.
Sale has been exceptional in his 16th season, ranking amongst baseball’s top starters in nearly every pitching metric.
Atlanta’s veteran southpaw has a 14-9 overall record this season, and is posting a 2.18 ERA (third), 0.99 WHIP (fifth), and 190 Ks (13th).
The same can't be said of Abbott, who enters Wednesday night’s contest posting a 4.70 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP in 159 innings.
With Atlanta being home and trotting out a superior pitcher, I like taking the Braves in the F5 and full-game runline.
I'm also targeting Braves’ superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. to have a massive night at the plate.
Acuña is in the midst of an incredible heater and is arguably the hottest hitter over the last three weeks, hitting .340 with five homers and 13 RBIs over his last 15 games.
Abbott has struggled mightily with his command this season, frequently falling behind in the count, thus forcing him to throw strikes over the plate, which has left him quite susceptible to heavy damage.
Acuña's elite exit velocities and raw power at the plate should result in him holding a definitive edge over Abbott, who has consistently struggled finding his spots against right-handed hitters in 2026.
Picks:
- Braves -1.5 (-111)
- Braves F5 -0.5
- Ronald Acuna Over 2.5 HRR (-140)
