The Philadelphia Phillies host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 23, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Brewers are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +119 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction
- Brewers vs Phillies Pick: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR (-131), TB (+112) and 1+ Home Run (+502)
My Brewers vs Phillies best bet is for Jackson Chourio to have a big day at the plate. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis!
Brewers vs Phillies Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +123 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -144 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +119 |
- Brewers vs Phillies moneyline: Brewers -144, Phillies +119
- Brewers vs Phillies over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Brewers vs Phillies spread: Brewers -1.5 (+123), Phillies +1.5 (-149)
Brewers vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | W-L | 7-10 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.51 / 2.75 | ERA / xERA | 4.49 / 4.11 |
| 3.30 / 3.15 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78 / 3.88 |
| 26.1% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 30.6% | GB% | 40.8% |
| .218 | BABIP | .299 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 108 | Location+ | 103 |
Brewers vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
Logan Henderson takes the mound for the Brewers, while the Phillies will start veteran right-hander Aaron Nola.
Despite the longtime Phillie having completely turned around his 2026 campaign following the All-Star break, I still expect Brewers’ youngster Jackson Chourio to have a massive night at the plate on Wednesday.
In eight previous ABs against Nola, Chourio has recorded two hits — one of which was a solo home run.
Aside from his slight edge in the two’s previous head-to-head encounters, Chourio matches up well with Nola’s primary pitch mix on the mound.
Nola’s premier offering — a 78.4 VELO Curve thrown at a 33.2% USG per BARTOLO — has been a lot more consistent in recent weeks after a trying season.
Nola frequently falls behind early in counts when missing his spots, which has resulted in him having to rely far more on his high-velocity offerings to throw strikes.
This could be a recipe for disaster versus a slugger of Chourio’s caliber. He is known for an aggressive, early-count approach where he frequently jumps on first-pitch offerings — often fastballs — to do heavy damage.
He also has an exceptional knack for punishing breaking and offspeed pitches, keeping opposing pitchers from being able to safely rely on secondary stuff to get him out.
Also, Nola's 4-seam fastball and sinker have resulted in opposing hitters recording elevated xwOBA at .387 and .382, respectively.
If Nola fails to expand the zone, keeping both his curve and high-velocity stuff down, Chourio’s tremendous versatility, patience, and raw power at the plate should give him a massive edge over the aging Phils’ righty.
Picks:
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR (-131)
- Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run (+502)
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112)
