The regular season is winding down, and Wednesday's slate features 16 games thanks to a Blue Jays vs. Orioles doubleheader.
We have picks for five top matchups throughout the day: Nationals vs. Tigers (1:10 p.m. ET), Twins vs. Giants (3:45 p.m. ET), Cardinals vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET), Angels vs. A's (9:40 p.m. ET), and Astros vs. Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET).
Read below for our 5 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, September 23.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 3:45 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ryan Minion's Nationals vs Tigers Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
Veteran left-hander Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Tigers on Wednesday afternoon in a spot where I expect reverse platoon splits to play a key role. On the other side, left-handed reliever Richard Lovelady (3-4, 3.86 ERA, 30 SO) gets the call to open a bullpen game for the Nationals.
Despite Valdez's vast struggles this season, posting an ERA upwards of 3.66 (4.06) for just the second time in his nine-year MLB career, the former Astro is set to face a Nats lineup loaded with left-handed hitters.
In 15 previous at-bats against Valdez, Washington’s lineup has collectively recorded just a single hit, given the likes of CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Daylen Lile, among others who boast far superior splits versus righties.
While I expect Valdez's inherent edge over the top of the Nats’ lineup to produce a scoreless first inning, the Nationals' side of the NRFI equation hinges on Lovelady set up as an opener.
The 29-year-old southpaw features heavy home-and-away and platoon splits that make him an ideal opener to get through Detroit's top of the order cleanly before handing the ball over to the Washington relief corps.
Given Valdez’s matchup advantages and a scripted, short-burst opening stint for Lovelady, look for both pitching setups to navigate the frame quietly early on.
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Pick: NRFI (-122)
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Action PRO's Twins vs Giants Prop
By Action PRO
There is tremendous value on Luke Keaschall in the props market for Wednesday's series finale.
Action PRO projects Keaschall for 1.61 hits against San Francisco, unlocking a clear 12% edge with his current prop line of over/under 1.5. This makes the Over an absolute slam dunk, earning a top-tier A grade in the rating systems.
Keaschall enters the contest locked in at the plate, collecting 13 hits over his last 40 at-bats (.325 average) alongside a double and a triple across his past 10 games.
Facing Perdomo—who carries a elevated 1.50 WHIP—gives Keaschall a favorable matchup to stay hot.
Securing this prop at lucrative plus-money prices delivers massive value.
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Pick: Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 Hits (+178)
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System-Based Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under Pick
By Action Network Staff
The best play for this matchup is taking the Under 7.5 runs, heavily supported by Evan Abrams’ trusted trend system, "Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games."
This situational model focuses specifically on regular-season series where both clubs enter the second game or later following sluggish offensive output in their previous outing.
When offenses go through quiet stretches early to mid-series, betting lines frequently overcorrect or undervalue the likelihood that these bats remain quiet.
Because both teams are struggling to build offensive momentum, the market presents a great window to capitalize on a low-scoring rhythm. Rather than expecting an sudden explosion of run production, the underlying situational factors point toward a slow-paced battle dominated by cold bats and situational pitching.
Expect both lineups to continue their low-output trends in this park environment, making the Under 7.5 runs the target.
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Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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Derek Carty's Angels vs Athletics K Prop
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 4.06 strikeouts for Angels starter Walbert Urena compared to 5.00 strikeouts implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value in fading him in this matchup against the Athletics.
If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 62% of the time, resulting in a 42% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $41.54. This play is good down to at least -130.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
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Pick: Walbert Urena Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)
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BARTOLO Astros vs Mariners Best Bet
By Action Network Staff
Sean Zerillo's BARTOLO projects the Astros for 3.29 runs and the Mariners for 3.89 today, which gives the total under the current 8.5 line.
If you want to dive deeper into this game, it'd be wise to check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
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