Few presidential races in U.S. history have been as wide open as the one set for 2028. Donald Trump cannot run again — by then, he will have served two terms in the White House, the constitutional limit — and that reality widens the field of unknowns.
On the Republican side, no single figure has emerged as Trump’s clear successor, and the party remains divided over whether its next standard-bearer should continue embracing Trump’s political imprint. For Democrats, the situation is even cloudier, with no clear direction following their loss in the 2024 election.
For those looking to place a long-shot wager on this topic, one platform allows users in all 50 states to put real money on the outcome. That platform is Kalshi, which blends traditional financial markets with advanced prediction systems.
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2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds
The most obvious candidate to carry on Trump’s legacy is his Vice President. Unlike Mike Pence during Trump’s first term, Vance has remained loyal to every one of the administration’s policies, putting him atop Kalshi’s board with 50% odds of becoming the nominee.
A distant second is Marco Rubio, at 9%. The Secretary of State belongs to Trump’s tight inner circle and has become one of the most visible architects of the administration’s foreign policy.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is third at 4%. Initially viewed as Trump’s main challenger for the 2024 Republican nomination, he has since aligned himself more closely with the White House agenda — particularly on immigration — and, unable to seek a third gubernatorial term in 2026, could attempt a return to national politics.
Also at 4% is Donald Trump himself. The president has, at times, floated the possibility of seeking a third term, though he has offered no explanation of how he would do so, given that the 22nd Amendment prohibits anyone from being “elected” to the presidency more than twice.
Also coming in at 4%, and rising in recent weeks, is Marjorie Taylor Greene. Once one of the staunchest MAGA loyalists, the Georgia congresswoman broke with the administration amid the scandal surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein documents and will resign from the House in January.
2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
No Democrat has officially announced their candidacy, but no one appears closer than Gavin Newsom. The California governor leads the board at 35%, positioning himself as one of Trump’s highest-profile critics. He launched a podcast in March and expanded his social media presence to grow his following.
A potential shift to the left within the party puts Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the most notable progressive option at 9%. AOC has a strong base among young voters, the working class, and immigrant communities, who see her as one of the party’s most powerful voices, alongside Bernie Sanders and New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
Kamala Harris may seek redemption after last year’s defeat and has 6% odds of becoming the nominee again. With no current official role, she has left the door open to another run and recently re-emerged on the national stage with a memoir about her short-lived presidential campaign.
Sharing that same 6% tier is Pete Buttigieg. Since serving as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, his career has been on a continuous upward trajectory: he sought the 2020 nomination, later became Biden’s Transportation Secretary, and — despite currently holding no office — maintains a high national profile through podcasts, town halls, and social media.
Slightly lower is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. A vocal opponent of Trump’s policies, he has emerged as a pragmatic, moderate voice who could also appeal to Republicans disillusioned with the current president. Amid rising polarization, his rhetoric often centers on rejecting political violence, including the April incident in which a man intentionally set fire to his official residence.
With November 7, 2028, still far away, there is also room for surprises and new faces. Further down the list are names such as Maryland Governor Wes Moore, comedian Jon Stewart, and Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, among others.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
