The latest NFL picks today focus on Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football, with Denver trying to extend its three game winning streak against Kansas City at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN. Patrick Mahomes returns after tearing his ACL and LCL last December, while the Broncos bring back a defense capable of putting immediate pressure on Kansas City's offense.
Our top play among the NFL picks today is Denver to win outright, with Broncos contracts trading around 44¢ on the prediction market winner board. New users can also activate the Polymarket promo codeACTION, deposit $10 and receive a $50 trading bonus before kickoff.
Broncos vs. Chiefs is the only NFL game on Monday night's schedule, putting the AFC West matchup at the center of the betting and trading markets. Below, we'll break down our pick, the latest prediction market prices and how the Polymarket promo code ACTION works for eligible new users.
Best NFL Picks Today for Broncos vs. Chiefs
Kansas City is still the favorite on Polymarket NFL odds entering Monday Night Football, but the prediction-market price leaves room to take a shot on Denver outright.
| Outcome | Contract Price | $100 Stake Pays |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs to Win | About 56¢ | About $179 |
| Broncos to Win | About 44¢ | About $227 |
A Chiefs contract around 56¢ represents roughly a 56% implied probability of a Kansas City victory, while Denver offers the larger potential return at about 44¢.
- NFL pick today: Broncos to win at 44¢ or better
Denver's pass rush is the main reason to back the underdog. Kansas City will be without left tackle Josh Simmons, leaving undrafted rookie Khalil Benson to protect Patrick Mahomes' blind side in his first career start at left tackle.
That is a difficult assignment against a Broncos defense that led the NFL in sacks per game last season. If Denver can consistently pressure Mahomes without committing extra rushers, the Broncos should have enough defensively to keep this game within one possession and give the outright contract a chance to cash.
At roughly 44¢, Denver is my preferred play among the NFL picks today. Contract prices can move before kickoff, so confirm the live number before entering a position.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
Denver's defense gives the Broncos a legitimate path to an upset beyond the matchup at left tackle. The unit finished third in yards allowed last season, while Nik Bonitto and the front remain capable of creating pressure without forcing the secondary into constant one-on-one coverage.
The Broncos also have more offensive upside around Bo Nix after adding Jaylen Waddle. Nix enters the season with a 24-10 record as a starter, and Denver should have opportunities to attack a Kansas City secondary that will be without safety Chamarri Conner.
Kansas City still has the advantages of Arrowhead Stadium and Mahomes, but there are enough questions around the Chiefs to avoid paying 56¢ on the favorite. Chris Jones has dealt with a calf issue, the offensive line is already being reshuffled, and Mahomes is returning from a significant knee injury.
The Chiefs are capable of winning a close game, but Denver's defensive front makes this a tougher matchup than the market price suggests. My Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction is a Denver upset, with the Broncos winner contract playable at 44¢ or better.
Polymarket Promo Code ACTION Details
The Polymarket promo code ACTION gives eligible new users a $50 trading bonus after a qualifying $10 deposit. There is no qualifying first trade required to unlock the offer.
| Polymarket Promo Code | Polymarket Offer | States Available |
|---|---|---|
| ACTION | Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus! | AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY |
The low $10 deposit requirement makes this one of the easier prediction market promos to activate. Once the bonus is available, users can trade Broncos-Chiefs or another eligible contract on the platform.
Prediction market apps differ from traditional sportsbooks because contracts trade between buyers and sellers rather than using fixed moneyline odds. A winning contract settles at $1, while a losing contract settles at zero.
Compare the platform with another major exchange in Kalshi through Action Network's Kalshi vs. Polymarket guide.
How to Claim the Polymarket Promo Code ACTION
- Register through the Polymarket promo code ACTION sign-up link.
- Create an account and complete the required identity verification.
- Deposit at least $10 using an eligible funding method.
- Receive the $50 trading bonus after completing the qualifying deposit requirement.
- Use the account balance on Broncos-Chiefs or another eligible prediction-market contract.
Polymarket Terms and Conditions
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
