The UFC heads back to the Apex this weekend with what is, for now, an 11-fight card. We've got a fun main event between former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling and fast-riding featherweight Youssef Zalal, where the winner will be inserted into title contention
We've got our usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time, with the event streaming on Paramount+ and CBS.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 117 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 117 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Youssef Zalal (-162) vs. Aljamain Sterling (+136)
Aljamain Sterling is officially 2-1 since moving up to featherweight, though he has a pretty strong case to be undefeated with a win over the top-ranked challenger in the division, Movsar Evloev. Fans and media were pretty evenly split on who deserved to get their hand raised in that fight, even though the three judges scored it unanimously 29-28 for Evloev.
Across from him is Youssef Zala, who went 3-3-1 in his initial UFC run, before leaving and returning in 2024. Since then, he's 5-0 with four finishes, all of them being submissions.
The reliance on the grappling is what separates Zalal's second stint in the Octagon from his first. While he always hunted takedowns, he's made massive strides in his ability to land them, as well as finish fights from top position. However, it's probably not an ideal path against Sterling, one of the division's (if not the sport's) best all-around grapplers.
Combining that with Sterling's five-round experience and the fact that he arguably beat Evloev has me leaning his way. However, money has poured in on Zalal already. He opened as an underdog on fast-posting books and was around -140 domestically a few days ago.
For that reason, I'm taking my time on betting Sterling, since it seems like we'll get a better price later. However, if the momentum starts to shift the other way, I'm happy to get the former champ at +130 or better.
Verdict: Sterling Undervalued (But Wait)
Davey Grant (-120) vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (-106) via FanDuel
I'm not sure why DraftKings doesn't have lines posted for this fight, since it is one of the few on the card that hasn't been reshuffled at some point prior to fight week.
Regardless, we have a classic matchup between a veteran, the 40-year-old Grant, and a UFC newcomer in 30-year-old Martinetti. Martinetti was the other half of the DWCS fight of the year against Mark Vologdin that led to me fading Vologdin last week, and the latter's performance en route to a draw makes me feel even better about Martinetti moving forward.
The Ecuadorian fighter landed three takedowns on seven attempts against Vologdin, while John Castaneda was unable to bring the Russian to the ground. That grappling could bey key against Grant, who was submitted in his last fight and was taken down in three of the four prior.
Plus, the ten-year age gap and, in my view, considerable athleticism differential both point to Martinetti. I expect the line to shift his way this week, so I'm jumping in early, with the best current line being -104 at BetRivers.
Verdict: Martinetti Undervalued
Victor Valenzuela (-142) vs. Max Griffin (+120)
This is another bout pitting a 2025 DWCS veteran against a 40+ year old opponent, with Max Griffin as the old dog.
Valenzuela, unlike Martinetti, didn't pick up a win on last season's Contender Series. However, he faced one of the best prospects of the 2025 show in Michael Oliveira, so he never had much of a chance.
Max Griffin is a much better opponent to showcase the power and explosive ability that Valenzuela used to win the Fury FC title and also pick up a post-DWCS knockout win just a few weeks ago. The quick turnaround isn't ideal, but I don't think Valenzuela cuts a ton of weight to make 170lbs, so it's less of a hindrance than it would be for some other fighters.
Griffin is 2-4 over his last six, with both wins coming via split decision against fighters around his age. That's not a great sign when being thrown in there with a much younger prospect, even if the prospect took the fight on short notice.
Plus, the line has already begun to move towards Valenzuela, with this fight opening as roughly a pick 'em. I'm jumping on his moneyline now before it moves even more, with the best odds coming via Caesars at -130.
Verdict: Valenzuela Undervalued
