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Sobel’s 2020 Masters Power Rankings: Best Bets for All 92 Players in the Field

Sobel’s 2020 Masters Power Rankings: Best Bets for All 92 Players in the Field article feature image

Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Rory McIlroy

It’s Masters week … finally.

And I think I just might know what’s been running through your mind.

I’m obviously going to fire some bets on this weeks’ tournament. Outrights, top-10s, make/miss cut, FRL – everything. But what if I want to bet on every single player in the field?

Good news, golf fans. I’ve got you covered.

My usual pre-tourney ranking of the entire field includes a new twist this time around, as I’ve listed best bets for all 92 players who are competing this week.

Good luck. There’s something in here for everyone – literally.

1. Justin Thomas

Best bet: Outright (+1300, $10 bet wins $130)

On a second-shot golf course, I want to bet the guy who’s proven to be the game’s best iron and wedge player. Thomas is indeed that guy.

2. Patrick Reed

Best bet: Top former winner (+470)

His biggest competition could be Bubba Watson, but this should be a sweet spot for Reed – and nothing would be sweeter than a repeater for the ’18 champ.

3. Tony Finau

Best bet: Top-five (+550)

Can he win? Sure, but regular Finau backers understand the value in simply playing him to come close. He was T-5 here a year ago.

4. Jon Rahm

Best bet: DFS (DK $10,500; FD $11,700)

With two wins, five top-10s and nine top-30s in his last 10 starts, there’s less volatility on the fiery Rahm as a plug-and-play option than most top players.

5. Dustin Johnson

Best bet: Top-10 (+110)

No reason to get overly creative with a DJ wager. He’s been top-10 in six of the last 10 majors and each of the last four editions of the Masters.

6. Rory McIlroy

Best bet: Live outright (TBD)

Speaking of volatility, few in the field have more finishing possibilities than Rory. I like him, but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach while hoping for a better number.

7. Xander Schauffele

Best bet: Top-10 (+164)

There are no sure things in golf betting, but top-10 major wagers on Xander have cashed more than half the time.

8. Brooks Koepka

Best bet: Live outright (TBD)

After a 65-65 weekend in Houston, his outright price dropped to +1700. I’d hold off for now, but don’t be scared to jump at a bigger number if he gets off to a sluggish start.

9. Bubba Watson

Best bet: Top lefty (-175)

Let’s see … do you think Bubba can handle Phil Mickelson, Yuxin Lin and Mike Weir? He’s a heavy fave in this group, but that’s only because he’s free money.

10. Patrick Cantlay

Best bet: Top American player (+1100)

At +500 for a top-five, I’d rather bank on the recent Zozo Championship winner to beat DJ, JT and the other U.S. players.

Patrick Cantlay is 28/1 to win the Masters. Credit: Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images.

11.Jason Day

Best bet: Top Rest of World player (+470)

He’s the fave in this group and will have to contend with the likes of Matsuyama and Scott, but it’s a similar price to his top-five number, with a better chance of happening.

12.Bryson DeChambeau

Best bet: Fade in H2H matchups

One of the great things about betting a major is the increased possibilities. You can get the likes of JT, Rahm, Rory and Brooks at plus-money against Bryson.

13.Tyrrell Hatton

Best bet: Top European player (+750)

Yes, I have Rahm and Rory ahead of him on this list, but I do love this number for a player who’s been one of the world’s best over the past 12 months.

14.Hideki Matsuyama

Best bet: FRL (+3300)

He was R1 leader before The Players was canceled and is fresh off a Sunday 63 in Houston. If the putter gets hot – admittedly, a big if – he can go low here.

15.Scottie Scheffler

Best bet: Top debutant (+650)

I still think the books’ use of “debutant” sounds too swanky – rookie? first-timer? – but Scheffler has the game to cash this bet.

16.Corey Conners

Best bet: Top-20 (+350)

Fresh off one of the better ball-striking performances during the final round in Houston, iron play is a strength for this Canadian – and that should pay off this week.

17.Sebastian Munoz

Best bet: Top South American player (-430)

OK, I don’t often recommend plays of -430, but if you think Munoz is going to beat amateur Abel Gallego – and he is – then take the bet.

18.Webb Simpson

Best bet: Bogey-free round (+500)

It should come as little surprise, but Webb led the PGA TOUR last season in bogey avoidance. At 5/1, it could be a smart play to see him avoid ‘em for any of the four rounds this week.

19.Matthew Wolff

Best bet: Leader after R3 (+3800)

This isn’t a bet for the faint of heart, but if you think Wolff can equal his U.S. Open performance – a Saturday night lead – then it could be worth a shot.

20.Abraham Ancer

Best bet: Top-30 (+125)

Great value here on a world-class ball-striker who hits it further off the tee than most people realize. This is one of my favorite plays.

pga dfs-breakdown-strategy-picks
Abraham Ancer is 125/1 to win the 2020 Masters. Credit: Stan Badz/PGA TOUR via Getty Images.

21.Danny Willett

Best bet: Top former winner (+2200)

On the surface, this seems like it’d be one of the tougher props to cash, but there are really only a few in-form champs and Willett is certainly one of them.

22.Justin Rose

Best bet: Outright (+8000)

I know what you’re thinking: He’s way down here on the list, so why should we bet him to win? Because this is crazy value on Rose, who has win equity, might be close to finding his game and fits this course well.

23.Cameron Smith

Best bet: Top-30 (+110)

Smith has been remarkably consistent lately, with six finishes of 22nd-or-better in his last seven starts. I don’t completely dislike a bet on him as Top Aussie, either.

24.Louis Oosthuizen

Best bet: To beat Fleetwood (-106)

We’ve got a player with solid form and course history matched up against one with poor form and course history – and the former is the ‘dog in this one.

25.Jason Kokrak

Best bet: To beat Fowler (-112)

Fresh off his first career win at Shadow Creek three weeks ago, Kokrak is the bigger price in a matchup against Rickie Fowler, who’s been struggling with swing changes.

26.Si Woo Kim

Best bet: Top South Korean player (+240)

He ranks second on the board in this four-ball and as anyone who’s previously bet on Si Woo knows, he owns huge upside. (And yes, huge downside, as well.)

27.Paul Casey

Best bet: Top English player (+600)

Hatton is combustible; Rose and Fleetwood haven’t played very well; and Fitzpatrick keeps MCing at majors. So, maybe the door is open here for Casey.

28.Dylan Frittelli

Best Bet: Top South African player (+550)

One of a half-dozen countrymen in the field, I really like this number on Frittelli to beat the likes of Oosthuizen, EVR and Schwartzel.

29.Matthew Fitzpatrick

Best bet: Top-30 (-136)

I’d be extra careful with this one, as Fitz was a popular pick for this year’s first two majors, only to miss the cut at each of ‘em.

30.Sungjae Im

Best bet: Top-30 (+110)

It’s been a bit of a disappointing stretch for Im, so keep this play to a cautious one in his first career Masters start.

31.J.T. Poston

Best bet: To make the cut (-110)

One of my favorite sneaky plays on the board, Poston is trending in the right direction and should have a bit of a comfort level in his first career Masters start.

32.Kevin Kisner

Best bet: DFS (DK $7,100; FD ($8,900)

With some massive GPPs this week, you’re going to need some differentiation and Kiz – who grew up not far from Augusta – could be the type who flies under the radar.

33.Shane Lowry

Best bet: Top Irish player (+340)

I mentioned Rory’s volatility earlier; if you think he’ll crash and burn in the grand slam spotlight, Lowry is the sensible play to win this group.

34.Collin Morikawa

Best bet: Fade in matchups

If the world’s fourth-ranked player didn’t show form on his preferred West Coast, I don’t think he’ll find it here. Among the H2H possibilities against him are Matsuyama, Simpson and Wolff.

35.Cameron Champ

Best bet: Top debutant (+900)

On a long golf course, Champ is always enticing. Now that he’s contended for a major championship, the sky is the limit and it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him contend again.

36.Lanto Griffin

Best bet: Top-40 (+110)

This is an ultra-conservative play on a guy who’s shown solid form lately, but you’re still getting plus-money on him to beat just 57% of the field to cash this bet.

37.Tiger Woods

Best bet: To make the cut (-375)

He’s not in any semblance of form right now, but the defending champion hasn’t missed a cut at Augusta National since 1996. I think he’ll grind and make it, but gotta admit, I don’t love this number.

38.Lee Westwood

Best bet: To beat Poulter (-125)

It’s too bad The Open wasn’t played this year, because I really believe Westwood would’ve made a serious run at it. This course might not suit him anymore, but I do like this matchup.

39.Adam Scott

Best bet: DFS (DK $8,900; FD $10,100)

Most top players look like bargains this week, but Scott feels overpriced. Combine that with very average recent form and he could be a low-owned gem for bigger contests.

Adam Scott is 50/1 to win the 2020 Masters. Credit: Carmen Mandato, Getty Images.

40.Kevin Na

Best bet: Top-40 (+110)

Not gonna lie: A plus-money wager on a guy like Na to finish top-40 feels like betting something just because it’s available to bet, but I mean, that’s never stopped us before.

41.Matt Wallace

Best bet: Top English player (+1400)

Of the nine English players in the field, Wallace owns the highest odds in this market, but he’s capable of beating ‘em all on any given week.

42.Tommy Fleetwood

Best bet: Fade in H2H matchups

One of my favorite players to bet at majors in recent years, Fleetwood has finished 57-59-MC-44-59 in his last five U.S. starts. Tough to envision him turning it around this week.

43.Rickie Fowler

Best bet: Live outright (TBD)

No, I’m not recommending Rickie, who hasn’t finished inside the top-20 in his last half-dozen starts. But I do believe he can win a tourney of this magnitude, so he’s worth keeping an eye on.

44.Francesco Molinari

Best bet: To make the cut (-120)

He’s played less golf than any of his peers over the past eight months, but Molinari looked like he might’ve found something on Sunday in Houston.

After finishing T5 at the 2019 Masters, Francesco Molinari is 110/1 to win this year’s tournament. Credit: Carmen Mandato, Getty Images

45.Jordan Spieth

Best bet: FRL (+5000)

Can he win this week? I don’t think so. But I do think he can get us thinking about it. It’s not a coincidence that Spieth has been Masters FRL three of the last five years.

46.Bernd Wiesberger

Best bet: Top Continental Euro player (+1400)

Alright, so it’s a big ask to beat Rahm this week. But if you think Molinari isn’t battle-tested and Stenson has no form, this could essentially become a H2H at 14/1.

47.Erik Van Rooyen

Best bet: To make the cut (-150)

It’s not a huge sample size, but EVR has competed in a half-dozen previous majors and he’s never missed a cut.

48.Chez Reavie

Best bet: To make the cut (Even)

This isn’t a course which should suit Reavie’s strengths, but he’s a grinder who can make enough pars to get himself to the weekend.

49.Charles Howell III

Best bet: To make the cut (-150)

Since there’s no “Top Augusta native” prop where we can take him over Mize, let’s just take CH3 to make the cut in just his third Masters start since 2008.

50.Ian Poulter

Best bet: To make the cut (-225)

With 13 made cuts in 14 career Masters starts, his record for reaching the weekend far outweighs the implied probability of these odds.

51.Tyler Duncan

Best bet: To make the cut (+105)

He won’t wow anyone with his game, but the steady Duncan has made the cut in 75% of his starts over the last six months.

52.Andrew Putnam

Best bet: To make the cut (Even)

There could be some value in this play, as Putnam had made three straight cuts before missing the weekend in Houston, but I’ll admit to some indifference on this one.

53.Phil Mickelson

Best bet: To beat Woods (+118)

I’ve got Tiger listed higher in this ranking, but it should be fairly close. With Lefty as a heavy ‘dog in this matchup, what do you think he’d suggest here?

54.C.T. Pan

Best bet: To make the cut (Even)

This is a sneaky little play that I really like, as Pan has reached the weekend now in six consecutive starts, dating back to the end of last season.

55.Charl Schwartzel

Best bet: Top former winner (+2600)

Similar to the Willett play above, I don’t necessarily think the 2011 champion has the firepower to beat the likes of Reed and Bubba this week, but I don’t mind taking the 26/1 to find out.

Justin Harding is 500/1 to win the 2020 Masters. Credit: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

56.Justin Harding

Best bet: Top South African player (+1000)

This will be a tough regional group to win, but the six players included are probably closer than the odds are suggesting, so I don’t mind a shot in the dark on Harding at 10/1.

57.Bernhard Langer

Best bet: Top senior player (+430)

He’s 63 years old. His results on PGA TOUR Champions this year were: 7-10-2-20-3-8-14-4-2. Did I mention he’s 63 years old?

58.Brandt Snedeker

Best bet: FRL (+9000)

Can lightning strike twice? Sneds was last week’s Thursday leader, posting a 65 to claim an early two-stroke advantage.

59.Billy Horschel

Best bet: To miss the cut (+146)

Just using recent history in our favor here, as Horschel has MC’d in two of his five previous Masters starts and only has one finish better than T-37.

60.Zach Johnson

Best bet: Top-10 after R1 (+600)

During the season that ended just a few months ago, Johnson ranked fourth in opening-round scoring average at 68.94 in 18 total starts.

61.Marc Leishman

Best bet: Top Australian player (+500)

It’s been a frustrating year for Leishman, but this is a depressed price to beat Day, Scott and Smith, which might be worth a flier.

62.Fred Couples

Best bet: Top senior player (+600)

Not only has he made the cut in seven of his last nine Masters starts, he’s been top-40 in each of those, too.

63.Graeme McDowell

Best bet: Top Irish player (+700)

If you really want to fade Rory, a play on both Lowry and G-Mac as low Irishman would still turn a net profit this week.

64.Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Best bet: DFS (DK $6,600; FD $7,900)

Once again, it’ll take some contrarian plays to take down a bigger GPP and Bezuidenhout offers some high-end upside while undoubtedly having low-ownership among the masses.

65.Byeong-Hun An

Best bet: FRL (+8000)

There are some bettors who blindly back Benny every single Thursday. So far this season, they’ve been treated to one sub-70 round in five starts, though he did post some low ones last season.

66.Adam Hadwin

Best bet: Top Canadian player (+175)

I happen to really like Conners this week, but if you’re not sold on him being able to successfully navigate Augusta’s slick greens, Hadwin is the next logical choice in this Canadian foursome.

67.Lucas Glover

Best bet: Top-20 after R1 (+400)

Following the PGA TOUR’s restart back in May, Glover ‘s first five Thursday rounds were 67-69-66-67-69. Moral of the story? He knows how to get off to a hot start.

68.Matt Kuchar

Best bet: To miss the cut (+138)

In his last two starts, Kuch finished outside the top-50 in limited-field, no-cut events. The cut line is top-50 and ties this week, so he’ll need to improve upon that.

69.Henrik Stenson

Best bet: To miss the cut (+112)

With results of MC-WD-MC in his last three starts, Stenson’s game clearly isn’t where it needs to be right now.

70.Brendon Todd

Best bet: To miss the cut (+122)

He’s been one of the best stories in golf over the past year, but on a soft course, those fairway-finders off the tee and going to leave him with some long clubs into the greens.

71.Victor Perez

Best bet: DFS (DK $6,500; FD $7,800)

Look, I don’t love him this week or else I’d have him ranked higher. But … for a guy ranked higher than Day and Bubba in the OWGR, I can guarantee he’ll be low-owned in big contests.

72.Rafa Cabrera Bello

Best bet: Top Spanish player (TBD)

This prop is currently off the board, but if it pops up you could be looking at a good price.

With Sergio out of the field, the Spanish contingent is down to just three players. Olazabal shouldn’t present much of a battle, so all RCB needs to do is beat that other guy. Some dude named Rahm.

73.Nick Taylor

Best bet: Top-20 after R1 (+550)

The more I see these Thursday-only wagers, the more I like ‘em. Taylor – or anyone else, for that matter – just needs to be in the top 22% for a single round in order for this one to pay off.

74.Max Homa

Best bet: To miss the cut (+105)

If Mr. Roastyaswing has ever, well, roasted your swing on his social media account, here’s your chance to bet against him, as he’s MC’d in four of his last seven starts.

Max Homa is 350/1 to win the Masters. Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images.

75.Andrew Landry

Best bet: Live Top-20 (TBD)

I would hold off on this one for now, but you might want to jump on it if Landry makes the cut, as he’s proven to be a strong player in the wind and gustier breezes are expected for the weekend rounds.

76.Nate Lashley

Best bet: Top-20 after R1 (+450)

I can’t help myself now. I’m starting to envision a sleepless Wednesday night, as I spend hours constantly betting everyone in the field to share a T-20 position after the first round.

77.Gary Woodland

Best bet: To miss the cut (+120)

In his last three starts, he MC’d, finished 72nd in a 77-man field and withdrew with a back injury after just seven holes in the opening round of the Zozo. Tough to think he’s where he needs to be right now.

78.a-Andy Ogletree

Best bet: Top amateur (+300)

Currently at No. 7, Ogletree is the top-ranked amateur in this week’s field and should have a bit of an upper hand, playing his college golf just a few hours down the road at Georgia Tech.

At 750/1, Jazz Janewattananond is one of the biggest longshots at the Masters. Credit: John McCoy/PGA TOUR via Getty Images

79.Jazz Janewattananond

Best bet: Top Debutant (+3800)

He hasn’t been playing close to his best brand of golf lately, but Jazz showed he could hang with the big boys at last year’s PGA Championship, so 38/1 could be enough to get you interested again.

80.a-John Augenstein

Best bet: Top Amateur (+350)

The runner-up to Ogletree at last year’s U.S. Amateur, Augenstein might be the more complete player, as he’s ranked ahead of him in the current collegiate listings.

81.Jimmy Walker

Best bet: To miss the cut (-150)

Hate to root against a guy, but this feels like a solid play, based on the fact that Walker has MC’d in four of his last five starts and eight of his last 10.

82.Shugo Imahira

Best bet: To miss the cut (-150)

Though he did make the cut in this year’s U.S. Open, finishing in 61st place, Imahira failed to reach the weekend in each of his previous seven career major appearances.

83.Sung Kang

Best bet: To miss the cut (-125)

He’s posted scores of 76 or higher in four of his five starts this season, including an 82 and an 86. And in his last three major starts, he owns a 79th-place finish and two MCs.

84.a-Abel Gallegos (+280)

Best bet: Top South American player

Do I think he’ll finish ahead of Munoz? Nope. But close to 3/1 to beat just one other player is at least a fair-value offer.

85.Vijay Singh

Best bet: Fade in H2H matchups

It wasn’t a terrible PGA TOUR Champions season for Singh, who posted three top-10s in 10 starts, but if you can get either Langer or Couples at a decent price against him this week, pull the trigger.

86.a-James Sugrue

Best bet: Top Amateur (+500)

The world’s eighth-ranked amateur likely hasn’t seen much of Augusta National yet, which could put him behind the 8-ball against his fellow U.S.-based amateurs.

87.a-Yuxin Lin

Best bet: Fade in H2H matchups

If you’re reading this far, then you’re probably the kind of person who will bet matchups between amateurs this week. I’d take either Ogletree or Augenstein against him.

88.a-Lukas Michel

Best bet: Fade in H2H matchups

Same deal here. Michel is ranked 90th in the current WAGR, so I’d take Ogletree, Augenstein or Sugrue – each in the top-12 – over him in any potential matchups.

89.Mike Weir

Best bet: To beat Mize, Lyle, Olazabal

Sure, I’ve got Weir at 89th on this list, but that just means I have other players at 90th, 91st and 92nd. If you’re so inclined, I’d take him against each of them.

90.Larry Mize

Best bet: To miss the cut (-910)

Since the PGA TOUR Champions restart, he competed in 10 events with a best finish of T-35 in limited fields. But hey, just the fact that he’s still playing doesn’t make this one a total slam dunk.

91.Sandy Lyle

Best bet: To miss the cut (-1430)

He hasn’t made the cut since 2014. He’s not going to do it this year. If you’re the kind of bettor who likes to bet $1,430 to win $100, well, here’s your chance.

92.Jose Maria Olazabal

Best bet: To miss the cut (-670)

You’re getting the same result here as you would on Lyle, but at more than half the price. There’s actually a bit of value here.

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