2021 BMW Championship Betting Guide: 3 Picks for FedExCup Playoffs Event, Including Shane Lowry

2021 BMW Championship Betting Guide: 3 Picks for FedExCup Playoffs Event, Including Shane Lowry article feature image
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Tracy Wilcox/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Lowry.

  • We're one week away from the TOUR Championship, and only 30 of the 69-man field will make it to East Lake.
  • This week at the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, a course that players don't have much history with.
  • Joshua Perry breaks down his best bets for the BMW below.

Well Tony Finau finally closed one out.

Couple him with Abraham Ancer winning the WGC event a few weeks back, and it’s been a big week for guys who’ve struggled to find the win column.

Now we move on to the BMW Championship with 69 players left in the FedExCup Playoffs following Patrick Reed’s withdrawal.

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The Course

Caves Valley is making its debut as a PGA TOUR stop. The par 72 measures just over 7,542 yards and has played host to a couple majors on the Champions Tour (2002 U.S. Senior Open and the 2017 Senior Players Championship).

Scores were fairly low for those senior majors, so I’d expect these guys to have little trouble this week unless the weather plays a major factor.

Water is in play on five holes, so I imagine that’s where players will find the most problems. The front nine appears like it leads to low scores. Both par 5s will be reachable, and there are also a couple of shorter par 4s that guys like Bryson DeChambeau may be able to give a go if the conditions are right.

The par 3s can all stretch to over 220 yards and will represent a difficult test if the TOUR decides to play them at their max.

The Favorites

Jon Rahm opens as the clear choice at the top of the board, coming in at +650. He was the odds-on favorite with about six holes to go, before letting the lead slip away on Monday. But the form has really been at another level compared to the rest of the elite players right now.

Xander Schauffele is next in line at +1800 and is the only other player sub +2000. He’s still riding the high of that gold medal win. His form on TOUR hasn’t really been as good as we’ve seen in the past though. He’s coming off a good week, though, with the approach game and may just be hitting his stride ahead of East Lake.

Basically every other star makes up the +2000s range. I keep getting drawn to Patrick Cantlay in these events, but I want something in the mid +3000s.

The Mid-Tier

I’ll toss in a few plays in this range starting with Shane Lowry at +4500 on DraftKings. He’s coming off a good week with the irons and although the tee ball was a little below field average, it’s been a strength of his in the past.

We’ll also go with Sam Burns at +5500 on DraftKings. This appears like a driver-heavy course, and Burns is usually well above average in distance. He’s also coming off a playoff loss in the WGC to Ancer, so the game is in good enough shape to contend in these stronger fields.

The Longshots

I usually don’t play this range in the playoffs, but we’ll take a stab with Charley Hoffman here at 100/1 on FanDuel. Hoffman hasn’t played much recently, but he  did shake off the rust last week and finished 21st at Liberty National. He’s long and gains strokes off the tee almost every week. The irons looked good last week, so if the short game shows up, he could sneak into that top 10 and maybe cash a nice place bet.

The BMW Championship Card

  • Shane Lowry +4500 (.73 units)
  • Sam Burns +5500 (.6 units)
  • Charley Hoffman +10000 (.33 units)

Total Stake: 1.66 units

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