Updated 2022 American Express Odds: 5 Picks Who Fit PGA West Best, Including Justin Rose

Latest 2022 American Express Odds

The PGA TOUR heads out west to California for the 2022 The American Express.

The tournament is usually a Pro-Am played at three different courses: PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Last year, with the Pro-Am being dropped, the round at La Quinta Country Club was also dropped. This year the event will be played at all three courses once again.

Therefore, each golfer will play two rounds at PGA West Stadium Course, one round at PGA West Nicklaus Course, and one round at La Quinta Country Club. The Stadium Course is a 7,113-yard par 72 that was designed by Pete Dye in 1986. The Nicklaus Course is a Par 72 measuring 7,159 yards. La Quinta Country Club is a par 72 measuring 7,060 yards. All of the courses are short for a Par 72 and typically play easy, resulting in some low winning scores.

The 2022 The American Express field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. Some notable entrants to the event include Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Phil Mickelson, Matthew Wolff, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, and Tony Finau.

We've back tested past tournaments at these two courses to see which metrics matter this week.

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Past Winners at The American Express

• 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
• 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
• 2019: Adam Long (-26)
• 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
• 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
• 2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
• 2015: Bill Haas (-22)

Let's take a look at several metrics for PGA West to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

The American Express is another tournament where distance off the tee is not going to be a major factor. With none of the three courses being long this week, strong iron players tend to do very well at PGA West.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Luke Donald (+23.5) (+30000)
2. Russell Henley (+22.2) (+3300)
3. Tom Hoge (+21.9) (+11000)
4. Talor Gooch (+21.0) (+3000)
5. Jon Rahm (+19.8) (+650)

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Opportunities Gained

All three courses this week are among the easiest on TOUR. In order to win, golfers are going to have to go very low. Creating as many chances as possible to make birdies from 15 feet and in this week will be crucial.

Total Opportunities Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Jason Dufner (+37.1) (+27500)
2. Russell Henley (+25.6) (+3300)
3. Tom Hoge (+23.2) (+11000)
4. Jon Rahm (+21.5) (+650)
5. Chan Kim (+20.8) (+35000)

Proximity 150-175

Approach shots from 150-175 are the most common yardages year after year at The American Express.

Proximity 150-175 in past 24 rounds:

1. Christian Bezuidenhout (+12.0) (+5500)
2. Adam Svensson (+11.9) (+14000)
3. Russell Henley (+11.8) (+3300)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+10.7) (+900)
5. Sepp Straka (+10.4) (+22500)
   

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Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

With small greens, there are very few three-putts in this event. Golfers will need to ball strike their way to low scores with smaller greens than TOUR average.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in past 24 rounds

1. Jon Rahm (+38.4) (+650)
2. Russell Henley (+26.9) (+3300)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+26.4) (+900)
4. Corey Conners  (+25.1) (+2200)
5. Russell Knox (+23.9) (+10000)

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SG: Pete Dye 

With two of four rounds on the Pete Dye designed PGA West, it will be important to target players who excel on Pete Dye tracks. Golfers with good history at these styles of course tend to pop up on leaderboards of Dye designs on a regular basis.

Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye in past 24 rounds:

1. Abraham Ancer (+45.7) (+2500)
2. Patrick Cantlay (+43.5) (+900)
3. Brian Harman (+39.5) (+7500)
4. Justin Rose (+34.0) (+4000)
5. Jon Rahm (+32.1) (+650)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27%); Opportunities Gained (22%); SG: Ball Striking (22%); Proximity 150-175 (13%); and SG: Pete Dye (16%)

1. Russell Henley (+3300)
2. Talor Gooch (+3000)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+900)
4. Jon Rahm (+650)
5. Tom Hoge (+11000)
6. Chez Reavie (+10000)
7. Adam Svensson (+14000)
8. Emiliano Grillo (+11000)
9. Jason Dufner (+27500)
10. Scottie Scheffler (+2000)

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2022 American Express Outright Selections

Justin Rose +5500

I am incredibly bullish on Justin Rose overall for the 2022 season. At 41 years old, he should still have a few seasons left where he can play at a high caliber level before moving to the next stage in his career.

Rose seems intent on being committed to the PGA TOUR this season and playing in The American Express this week (an event he rarely plays) is proof of that. At the Hero World Challenge, Rose finished in a tie for 9th and ended the week hot as he fired a -6 on Sunday.

Sitting at 47th in the Official World Golf Rankings, "Rosie" is highly motivated and should begin his 2022 season with a chip on his shoulder. Although he hasn't played at PGA West much, he does have some recent success at Pebble Beach, another shorter West Coast track where he contended for the U.S. Open in 2019. The Englishman has the ability to get hot with the putter on Bermudagrass, which is what we've seen many winners of this event do in the past.

In a week where it will be tough to beat the two superstars at the top (Rahm and Cantlay), there is a lot of value on starting a betting card at a great price on Justin Rose.

Michael Thompson +9000

Michael Thompson was one of the most impressive golfers at last week's Sony Open. The 36-year-old gained 6.5 strokes on approach, which was good for third in the field. He struggled a bit off the tee, but that shouldn't be much of a detriment at The American Express with the rough not being overly penal on any of the three courses.

In addition to his performance last week, Thompson also has shown he likes playing at PGA West. Last year, he finished in fifth place and also finished ninth at the event in 2019. Early in the season, journeyman golfers who get hot tend to stay hot for a stretch, and Thompson has been a streaky player throughout his career. At close to triple digit odds, it makes sense to see if he can roll the momentum into another strong performance this week.

Phil Mickelson +12000

I still am of the belief that despite being 51 years old, Phil Mickelson is still capable of winning on the PGA TOUR in certain spots. PGA West is one of those spots.

In 2019, "Lefty" finished in second place at The American Express, despite losing 2.0 strokes the field putting, which is uncharacteristic. He also has a third place finish in 2016 with some other solid finishes sprinkled throughout his career. The veteran lives close to the course and has always played some excellent golf in the area. There also might be something to be said for his affinity to socializing during the pro-am. Two weeks after his second-place finish here in 2019, Mickelson won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

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Lucas Glover +13000

Lucas Glover put in an excellent performance last week at the Sony Open, finishing in fifth place. Glover gained 9.5 strokes on approach, which led the field by a large margin. At a course where approach play will be a major factor with smaller than TOUR average greens, it should be a nice fit for his hot irons.

Glover's course history at PGA West is a bit up and down, but he may be in a bit of a career resurgence have just won the John Deere Classic in July after a ten-year winless streak (2011 Wells Fargo Championship).

It's rare that you can bet a golfer who led the field in approach the previous week at well over 100-1 on the odds board. If he can find a way to putt to field average, he has a great chance to contend for the second consecutive week. DraftKings has the best number on Glover.

James Hahn +28000

Despite some up and down form in 2021, I believe James Hahn has some win equity relative to his odds heading into 2022. With two TOUR wins on his resume, he has shown he is capable of getting it done on a week where he finds himself in contention.

The 40-year-old has played some of the best golf of his career on desert tracks on the west coast. He has a fourth place at PGA West back in 2013, but it's his recent performances on corollary courses that make him stand out this week. Hahn has a fifth place finish at the Shriners in 2020 and a 10th place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last season. The South Korean always plays TPC Scottsdale well, and there has been some obvious carry over on leaderboards between that event and The American Express.

Hahn is a volatile golfer, but as win only bet on a course where longshots have historically come through quite often, he is worth a shot. The best number on Hahn can be found at FanDuel.