Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Picks: Outrights, Top 5 Bets Include Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth
Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay (left) and Tony Finau.
- Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth highlight two of our staff's seven favorite bets for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the first even in 2022 for the PGA TOUR.
- Eight of the world's top 10 are at Kapalua this week, and the elite 38-man field features PGA TOUR winners from the previous season.
- Check out our GolfBet staff's seven favorite picks for the week, from props to outrights, below.
2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +800 |
| Justin Thomas | +800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1100 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1200 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1300 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1300 |
| Sam Burns | +1800 |
| Cameron Smith | +1800 |
| Daniel Berger | +1800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2500 |
| Sungjae Im | +2500 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 |
| Patrick Reed | +3000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +3000 |
| Abraham Ancer | +3300 |
| Jason Kokrak | +3300 |
| Harris English | +3500 |
| Marc Leishman | +3500 |
| Talor Gooch | +4000 |
| Billy Horschel | +6000 |
| Kevin Na | +6000 |
| Seamus Power | +6000 |
| Max Homa | +8000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +8000 |
| Lucas Herbert | +9000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +10000 |
| Joel Dahmen | +12500 |
| Branden Grace | +12500 |
| Cameron Davis | +12500 |
| K.H. Lee | +12500 |
| Garrick Higgo | +12500 |
| Kevin Kisner | +15000 |
| Matt Jones | +15000 |
| Phil Mickelson | +15000 |
| Lucas Glover | +20000 |
| Stewart Cink | +20000 |
*Odds as of Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET and via PointsBet.
After a thrilling end to the 2020-21 season and an eventful fall swing, the PGA TOUR is back in full force. It starts this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui.
Eight of the top-10 players in the world are in this 38-man field (Cameron Champ withdrew on Tuesday after testing positive for COVID-19), which features some of golf's most established stars and a few of the up-and-coming variety who broke through last season in the win column.
Our GolfBet staff is back with their favorite picks for the tournament. While 38 golfers are living the life in Maui at Kapalua, our guys are grinding for you.
Check out their favorite bets and breakdowns for the tournament below.
Patrick Cantlay — Top 5 (+275)
Jason Sobel: Prepare yourself: You’re going to see Cantlay’s name pretty frequently in my weekly previews this year.
There aren’t many players on whom I’m more bullish over the next 12 months; as I’ve written in this year’s edition of my annual “The Leap” column, I think he’ll win his first major title – and it could come as soon as April. That might seem like recency bias after he won the FedEx Cup, earned Player of the Year honors and went 3-0-1 at the Ryder Cup all in the past five months, but it’s less about bias and more about what we witnessed. The understated Cantlay seems more comfortable in the spotlight than he ever did previously, which should equate to more success.
He was my pick at this tourney last year, when rounds of 68-68-67 gave way to a 72 on Sunday and ended in a T-13 finish, but I still feel like this one sets up really well for him. The other Patrick (Reed) got the nod as my favorite outright based largely on bigger opening odds, but don’t be surprised if Cantlay keeps the momentum rolling with another victory at this one, meaning a top-five play owns plenty of upside.
Marc Leishman — Top 10 (+200)
Chris Murphy: One player who I am high to bounce back and find a win this year is Marc Leishman. He has done well historically in these winter months, including when given the opportunity to play the Sentry TOC.
Leishman qualified for this event with his team win at the Zurich Classic, alongside Cameron Smith. That came after Leishman posted a top-five finish at the 2021 Masters. He notched three more top-five finishes last year, including two during the recent fall swing.
The big Australian has top-10s in two of his four trips to this event, and his putter was the key to success both of those times. He gained five strokes putting in those two trips, while losing 8.1 strokes on these greens when he finished outside of the top 20.
Leishman is a player who prefers Bermuda greens. If he brings the good version of his flat stick with him, I like his value at +200 on BetMGM (which pays ties in full) to finish in the top 10 in a short field.
Spieth & Thomas to Finish Top 10 (+350)
Rob Bolton: Greetings and libations, er, salutations! It’s early yet in 2022, and the year is still happy and new, so we might as well make that last for as long as we can. I’m raising a glass for your good health and good luck.
BetMGM is doing its part with this softball of a prop, which is brought to you by The Action Network's weekly PGA TOUR preview show, “The Gimme.” It's exactly what we want in a limited field of 38 with no cut.
JT is a two-time champion and twice a third-place finisher at Kapalua. He closed out 2021 with warning shots to the others that the distractions and inconsistencies of the early portion of the year were long gone. Slam dunk.
In four prior trips to Kapalua, Spieth has a win, a solo second, a T3 and a solo ninth. The expansive fairways and greens cater to his swashbuckling ball-striking, while the contours of the course and demands for strong short game, putter and creativity play into his strengths. It’s zero wonder why he’s done so well here.
The wild card is that this is Spieth’s first official competition as a father. He finished last of 20 at the Hero World Challenge, but the value in that experience is that he’s now logged one road game.
The assumption for new fathers among touring professionals is that they travel with the same disrupted sleep schedule that commands life at home.
However, the day job grants them a coveted reconnection with rest and routine, even if for a short period of time. Furthermore, of course and as always, never sleep on the Nappy Factor.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
Matt Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama feels like a great place to start in terms of value this week. There are 10 golfers ahead of him on the odds board, which doesn't reflect his win equity. Having won twice last year including a major championship, 'Deki has answered the question that is often asked, "He's a great player, but can he actually win?"
If 2021 was a sign of things to come, I could see a few more victories in ‘22 for the Japanese star.
Known for his work ethic, Matsuyama is one of the golfers in the field who I would wager put his off time to good use. The appearance this week is likely an "all business" trip, with the 28-year-old looking to continue his momentum from his best season to date.
With the exception of last year's appearance (41st), Matsuyama has an excellent course history at Kapalua. His previous three trips to the course resulted in three top-five finishes: third in 2015, second in ‘17, and fourth in ‘18. It is undeniable that Matsuyama loves this place and last year's anomaly should be attributed to his abysmal putting display, where he lost 9.7 strokes on the field.
Matsuyama rates out as an excellent value for Kapalua and has the confidence to begin his 2022 with a bang.
Jordan Spieth (+2200)
Landon Silinsky: It felt like we were never going to see Spieth back at Kapalua after his game deserted him for the better part of two years. Thankfully, however, he found himself last season and won at the Texas Open last April.
There are no real glaring values on the board to start the week, with the majority of the game’s elite priced between +700 and +1400. Enter Spieth, who will be teeing it up for the fifth time in Hawaii.
His record at this tournament? Ninth, T3, win, second. Clearly, he’s quite fond of this track.
The four-time major champion averages 2.3 Strokes Gained: Total per round on the field at Kapalua, which trails only last year’s champion Harris English among the 38 players this year. Surprisingly enough, it’s Spieth’s ball-striking that has propelled him here, as he’s averaged 1.64 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round in his four career starts at the Tournament of Champions.
We know Spieth can catch fire with his flat stick, so if he’s even hitting it semi-straight he needs to be on the short list this week at 22-1.
Tony Finau (+2800)
Bryan Berryman: Kapalua is a course that will welcome Tony Finau’s often sporadic driving accuracy with open arms this week. Home to some of the widest fairways on tour, Tony will have clearance to grip and rip without much fear of his ball finding hazards. The winner of this event is likely going to eclipse the 20-under mark, so I’m looking for players who will give themselves the most birdie looks.
Finau’s elite driving distance, combined with his hot iron play to close out his 2021 calendar year, gives great value in this number at +2700. This could be the start of a historic season for Finau, who has been knocking on the door of the game’s elites for far too long.
Daniel Berger (+2200)
Justin Bailey: Daniel Berger is one of my favorite targets in this range. The first event in January is always tough to gauge because we don’t really know what these guys have been doing over the last month or so.
However, if we’re looking at recent form, Berger leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 20 rounds (Data Golf). If you’d prefer to rely on long-term form — which is a good way to target a golfer’s baseline — then we’re in luck.
Over the last 12 months, Berger still ranks second in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Overall, it’s hard to ignore Berger when he rates well in recent and long-term form and has historically played well at Kapalua, ranking 11th in average strokes gained at this course.
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