How bad of an idea is it to fade Scottie Scheffler this week at Pebble Beach? I am not talking pure fading for the sake of taking someone on in an event because they are a poor fit when I ask this question, but what I mean by that inquiry is how bad is it to fade Scheffler when we dive into the course/odds on the board in comparison to other events he will be entering this year?
We will know Scheffler is the man to beat every week. The insight has to be more data-intensive in response to a value-based retort when that question is asked.
Statistically, it is not ideal. Scheffler has been an immaculate Poa putter over the past season, highlighted by a par-four and par-five return on similar setups that far surpasses the other competitors in this field. I don't see this 'poor fit' for Scheffler that you are hearing from a lot of the pundits in the space.
Honestly, some of the +320 prices are very close to accurate if you even want to take a small shot on the American.
That is not going to be my game most weeks due to the fact that I prefer finding actual value and not overindulging my exposure in negative-EV situations, something you are unlikely to get out of the No. 1 player in the world at his current price points weekly. However, decisions have to get made this season. Are we taking him on and hoping for the best, or are we bypassing the board entirely?
If we are looking for reasons to put our feet in the sand and fight back, there are two factors for me at Pebble Beach that I do like. For starters, blustery conditions on Sunday could throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings. Scheffler is the most dialed-in golfer in the world, where he almost gets rewarded for knowing his stock yardages and consistently hitting the right shots. Wind adds an additional factor that introduces some 'luck' into the mix.
Secondly, the odds board doesn't have quite as high a hold percentage as we have seen in his first two starts of the year. It is still noteworthy, but some drift has occurred in sections that warrant consideration of value propositions.
There is probably a one-in-four to one-in-five chance that Scheffler makes all these discussions moot and wins the title. You would have to decide which area it lands in between the two, because it directly alters the correct path here, although I am going to take a few shots against him this week and hope for Sunday carnage.
It wouldn't be the first time I was rewarded with that answer at this tournament.
2026 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Predictions: PGA Picks From Proven Model
Outright Winners
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
In the scenario where winds do ravage this tournament, having a certain European flair to my card is something I am perfectly fine signing up for this week.
Tommy Fleetwood has often been labeled as a golfer who can't win on American soil, but a lot may have changed for the current world No. 4 after he took down the 30-man Tour Championship in August.
I get that winning a 30-man tournament isn't quite the same as going four days against 156 players, but it is not as if an 80-man field, where all the top golfers in the world are present in both situations, is too dissimilar for someone who might be ready to surge after getting his feet wet last year.
Fleetwood ranked as my third-highest win equity golfer on the slate (behind Scheffler and McIlroy) and was the first name to do so while maintaining long-term value at his price. I didn't see much difference between where his outright number should have been and McIlroy's.
That is typically where value needs to be grabbed.
Viktor Hovland +3500
I've always liked Viktor Hovland's profile for this event. I just don't know if he has ever entered the week in prime form to show the true upside he has for this course.
We have seen nothing better from him than an 18th during a five-week lead-in to this event (most were much worse), which makes his 10th-place result at the WM Phoenix Open last week all the more encouraging if we believe Hovland is finally going to get to take on Pebble Beach in a more in-form state.
There are past iterations within my model before the days of Scheffler's dominance that thought Hovland was the best upside play on the board at his various price points throughout the year, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him quickly erase a disappointing 2024 season by re-cementing his status as a top-five golfer in the world.
Of the seven statistical categories that I weighed this week, Scheffler landed first in six of the areas. The only zone that he didn't exhibit that return would be 'similar iron play in comp conditions.' A category that is niche, to say the least, but one that saw Hovland take the crown over Scheffler.
Maybe there is something to that answer.
Russell Henley +3500
There are a couple of American golfers who have that European style to their game. Names that I would trust in windy, wet conditions. One is Patrick Cantlay, a player who might get me banned from writing Action Network articles if I ever mention him again for a big event (what is new… he makes sense within various markets this week).
The other is Russell Henley, a golfer I have been pounding the table on for over the last 18 months as being a legitimate top-five golfer in the world.
Henley's profile is that of a short-iron savant; someone who is going to find a lot of fairways and be able to use his proximity from within 125 yards to create a gap over the field. We have seen long-distance hitters win recent iterations of this contest, if we are trying to find a blueprint that might dissuade us from a pure upside answer.
Still, my model has always believed that the top-ranked category to look at when playing this course is 'Putts Per GIR.'
That was an area where Wyndham Clark dominated in 2024. McIlroy saw a similar boost in 2025 (I realize he also bludgeoned this course off the tee and made putts), but here are the top-12 golfers for me this week in that area.
Matchups
Sepp Straka -120 over Keegan Bradley
It has been a quality start to 2026 on the matchup front. I'd love to see the outright success follow. Sure, a mixed bag for this article since we keep rotating wins and losses every week, but about 57% through 55 plays since the start of the season in the fall. A total that I will take and run with for a season if we can maintain the success.
I have five matchups on tap this week. You can get the rest of the plays if you follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports.
As you can see from the Henley discussion above, Sepp Straka landed as this high-end golfer who can excel in similar 'Pitch and Putt' contests. We have yet to see the putter cooperate for us in 2026, but the Austrian had a respectable profile when running his data to feature 'Putts Per GIR versus pure make-or-miss returns.
Bradley had a few metrics that liked him fine, but 69th out of 80 players on Short Par 72s and 54th for Strokes Gained on California Poa were enough for me to view this as a fade spot against the American.
As always, these numbers are subject to move throughout the week. A lot of the totals shift fast after they are released on Monday.
