J.T. Poston joined the likes of David Lingmerth and William McGirt as long-shot winners at the Memorial Tournament. He had the lead for most of the front nine, but he gave the lead up on the back nine. It looked like he had played himself out of the tournament, but he birdied 3 of his final 5 holes to force a playoff with Ryan Gerard.
Try as I might, I didn't have Poston winning at Muirfield Village on my bingo card last week. I haven't seen a breakdown, but I have to assume it was a great week for the sportsbooks, as I didn't see Poston on anyone's outright card.
We now turn our attention to the RBC Canadian Open. It's the week before the U.S. Open, so we have a pretty strong field set to tee it up in Toronto.
With plenty to get to, let's take a look at my RBC Canadian Open picks and PGA TOUR predictions for this week's event at TPC Toronto.
2026 RBC Canadian Open Course Preview: TPC Toronto
The RBC Canadian Open typically changes venues each year, but TPC Toronto signed a deal to host the event for 3 straight years. This is the second year in the deal, so we only have one year of course history to work with. The North Course is a Par 70 that measures 7,369 yards.
The course didn't play very difficult in 2025. Ryan Fox won with a score of -18, and 35 golfers finished the week with a score of -10 or better. With some rain and strong winds in the forecast, we could see some tougher scoring conditions here in 2026.
The fairways at TPC Toronto are generous (35-37 yards) in size. There aren't a lot of driver-heavy Par 70s on the PGA TOUR, but this is one of them. Despite only having two Par 5s, the field hit driver on 81% of non-Par 3 tee shots here last year. There are a lot of long Par 4s on the scorecard.
While it's a driver-heavy course, it's not exactly a bomber's course. Hitting the fairway is still important, as the Greens in Regulation rate was 30% higher from the fairway than it was from the rough at this course in 2025.
The greens here are average in size (6,500 square feet) and feature a mix of bentgrass and poa annua. They weren't particularly tough to hit last year, but that could change with the windy conditions expected this week.
Approach play is always important, but I'm bumping up the importance of around the green play as well. This is a unique setup, as golfers will hit a lot of wedges and long irons, yet there will be very few approach shots with short and mid irons.
Proximity metrics can be noisy, but it's not the worst idea to look at proximity from 50-150 yards and from 200+ yards this week.
2026 RBC Canadian Open Predictions, Picks
Outright Winner: Sam Burns
Odds: +1500 (FanDuel)
Burns has been in contention several times this year, but he hasn't broken through with a win… yet. He was the favorite last week at Muirfield Village with only two holes remaining, but a bad approach shot on 17 took him out of contention.
He's been one of the best putters on TOUR for years, and he's finally starting to show some consistent ball striking. He regularly gains off the tee and has gotten better with his approach play over the last 12 months, 6 months, and 3 months.
While I'm not putting a ton of stock into a single year of course history, it certainly doesn't hurt that he finished runner-up here last year. A win feels imminent. I like the +1500 number this week.
Outright Winner: Justin Rose
Odds: +3000 (BetMGM)
If I could only make one outright bet this week, it would be Rose. Like many, I was extremely skeptical when he announced a change to his irons. I'll be honest, I didn't even know McLaren made golf clubs.
The worries were proven valid in his first couple of starts after the switch, but he seems to have them dialed in now. In his last two events, he has finished in the top 15 and has gained over 7 strokes on approach.
He is quietly having one of his best seasons on TOUR, and he's rounding into form just in time for the year's third major. Rose missed the cut here last year, which is likely why we are getting such a generous number.
Outright Winner & Top 10: Eric Cole
Outright Odds: +4700 (DraftKings) | Top 10 odds +500 (FanDuel)
Cole comes into this event with as good of form as anyone. He has finished T8 or better in 4 of the last 5 events.
This run of form reminds me of a few years ago when he was finishing in the top 10 of seemingly every event. He's a streaky golfer, and he's currently locked in. He's still searching for that first win, but he's lost in two playoffs in his career.
He should feel more comfortable the next time he finds himself in contention. The underlying statistics are certainly encouraging, as he's top 10 in this field on approach, around the green, and putting.
The driver has always been an issue, but he has gained strokes off the tee in back-to-back events. That's a feat he hasn't accomplished since the summer of 2024.
Top 20: Shane Lowry
Odds: +185 (FanDuel)
I usually only include my outrights in this article, but I am placing sizable top 20 bets on two golfers this week.
The first is Lowry, who has cooled off a bit after posting 3 top 10 finishes in the first two months of the year. I'm encouraged by two statistics in particular — he's had a solid year putting (which isn't usually the case), and he gained 5 strokes on approach last week.
He didn't play this event when it was held here last year, but he has an elite track record at the other courses where the RBC Canadian Open has been held. In this weaker field, I love his top 20 odds.
Top 20: Mac Meissner
Odds: +275 (BetRivers)
My final bet of the week is Meissner to finish in the top 20. There's nothing that jumps off the page when you look at his statistics, but he's a solid all-around golfer. He's above the field average in all four of the strokes gained categories.
He comes into the week in great form, posting top 10s in 3 of his last 5 events. Grab the +275 while you still can.
