There's no rest for the weary. After The Open Championship, we head to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN for the 3M Open.
Designed by the legend Arnold Palmer, TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 course spanning over 7,400 yards. The reigning champion, Kurt Kitayama, golfed 23-under last year and is a longshot bet at +2500 to retain his championship.
Let's dive into our staff's 3M Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
First Round Leader Pick: Max Homa (+6000)
By: Tony Sartori
This course plays perfectly to Max Homa's strengths.
His iron play has improved significantly, as he has gained true strokes on approach in four of his past five tournaments. As a result, he has made the cut in all five of those events, including a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic.
TPC Deere Run plays similarly to TPC Twin Cities, as both courses are long but easy to score on, with above-average fairway and green accuracy. With greens relatively easy to hit, converting putts will be critical in what is expected to be a birdie-fest.
The good news for Homa is that putting is his greatest strength. This season, he ranks in the 88th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting.
This course sets up well for him, which is why he recorded a T3 finish here and could contend again this week.
Top-20 Pick: Zachary Bauchou (+430)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Bauchou has never played this event, but he has a good track record on easy courses and on courses with a lot of water danger.
He already has seven top 25 finishes on TOUR this season, so +430 in a weak field like this screams value.
He should find this course to his liking, as he's an excellent iron player and one of the best in the field at avoiding bogeys.
Matchup Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout Over Jason Day (-115)
By: Spencer Aguiar
I like Christiaan Bezuidenhout a lot this weekend. And that's saying a lot given my affinity for Jason Day.
While I don't think it is as doom-and-gloom as the rankings show for Day, matchup betting is about finding safety and extrapolating projections to land on projected win equities for one-versus-one battles.
Outside of the recent production, Day has been okay this season. His ability to avoid trainwrecks is pronounced. His scoring on similar courses is fine. That said, the iron play is where things take a turn for the worse and could spell trouble if he locates the bottom of the lake with that faulty approach production.
My model ranks the Aussie 130th for Overall Proximity, 124th when water danger is increased, and 132nd when approach play is easy to separate from the pack. A hot putter is always there for him to turn those metrics around if he starts draining longer shots.
Still, I am willing to fade that profile when it is accompanied by one of the best Birdie: Bogey producers in this field when we dive into Bezuidenhout.
Outright Winner Pick: Max Homa (+5100)
By: Jake Zach
I like where Tony is going with his FRL pick. But I'll take it a step further.
This needs to be the week Homa gets back on the win train.
It has been a difficult stretch for Max, but anyone paying attention to the underlying numbers knows the tide is turning. Let's take a look at his recent results:
- T22 at the Charles Schwab Challenge
- T20 at the RBC Heritage
- Runner-up at the John Deere Classic
- T39 at the ISCO Championship
- T28 at The Open Championship
The ball striking has been absolutely beautiful. Green across the board in the strokes gained data. The game is rounding into form at exactly the right time.
But here's why Homa rises above being just a statistical pick this week… the man has guts. Cast your mind back to Marco Simone, circa 2023. Ryder Cup singles match on the line against Matt Fitzpatrick. Homa steps up and drains a clutch par putt to salvage a massive singles point for the United States. That is not a man who wilts under pressure. That is someone who takes over an event.
If I'm picking someone to go toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler on a Sunday at TPC Twin Cities with everything on the line, it's Max Homa. The form is there, the course suits him, and at 51/1 the number is simply too good to ignore. This is his week.
