The PGA TOUR heads to Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, an Arnold Palmer-designed layout built on a former sod farm that plays nothing like a typical Midwest course. With 27 bodies of water in play on 13 of 18 holes, thick four-inch rough, and a flat exposed property vulnerable to wind, the course has more of a Florida feel than a Minnesota one.
TPC Twin Cities is one of the most interesting venues on Tour. It ranks among the easiest courses for birdies yet produces one of the highest double bogey rates on the schedule. Tournament founder Hollis Cavner described the vision perfectly: "We want birdies and train wrecks." That philosophy has played out almost exactly as intended.
Ball striking is everything here. A remarkable 59% of strokes gained comes from tee-to-green play, with past champions Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama, Jhonattan Vegas, and Matt Wolff all winning on the back of elite driving. Long iron play is equally critical, with over half of all approach shots coming from beyond 175 yards. The bentgrass greens are among the purest on Tour and consistently produce elevated putting stats across the field.
The closing stretch is among the most volatile on the schedule, with water threatening all three finishing holes, including the par 5 18th, where eagles and double bogeys are equally possible.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler makes his tournament debut this week alongside defending champion Kurt Kitayama in a field of 144 players competing for an $8.8 million purse. With only three events remaining before the FedExCup Playoffs, expect an aggressive leaderboard and a winning score somewhere in the high teens to low 20s under par.
Jake Knapp (+3500)
I fear Scottie Scheffler heavily this week, but if there are two men I trust to go head-to-head with the world's best and win, Knapp is the first name I see on the odds board worth the price.
After a strong start to 2025, Knapp went through a bit of a lull, but the ball-striking numbers coming out of his last two trips across the pond tell a different story than the missed cuts suggest. He gained strokes ball striking at the Scottish Open and at Royal Birkdale for The Open Championship. The swing is there. The game is there. And now he comes back stateside to a course where he has a third-place finish from a year ago.
TPC Twin Cities is built for Jake Knapp. High water danger, premium on total driving, long iron play critical, this is his profile. My main comp course here is PGA National, one of the most demanding water-danger venues on Tour. Knapp shot a 59 there.
At 35/1, this is one of the best numbers on the board this week.
Max Homa 51/1
This needs to be the week Homa gets back on the win train.
It has been a difficult stretch for Max, but anyone paying attention to the underlying numbers knows the tide is turning. Look at his recent results: T22, T20, a runner-up, T39, T28 at The Open Championship. The ball striking has been absolutely beautiful. Green across the board in the strokes gained data. The game is rounding into form at exactly the right time.
But here's why Homa rises above being just a statistical pick this week… the man has guts. Cast your mind back to Marco Simone, circa 2023. Ryder Cup singles match on the line vs. Matt Fitzpatrick. Homa steps up and drains a clutch par putt to salvage a massive singles point for the United States. That is not a man who wilts under pressure. That is someone who takes over an event.
If I'm picking someone to go toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler on a Sunday at TPC Twin Cities with everything on the line, it's Max Homa. The form is there, the course suits him, and at 51/1 the number is simply too good to ignore. This is his week.
