The show goes on! No major championship hangover for the players in this field who have decided to make the trip across the ocean and tee it up in Blaine, Minnesota.
Of course, that factor fails to account for the overall weaker field. Not every golfer is making their way from Royal Birkdale to TPC Twin Cities. However, the wide-open nature of this field (when we remove the fact that Scottie Scheffler is lurking) could make this a great betting tournament to take some shots in various markets.
Let's dive into my 3M Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
3M Open Outright Picks
Doug Ghim 50/1
Par-four scoring has been a big indicator of success at TPC Twin Cities in the past. We have an onslaught of holes that will test every part of your game, and players who have been able to thrive at the shorter locations/hold steady on the longer ones have worked their way up the leaderboard at a higher rate in past iterations of this contest.
I say all of that because of this immaculate profile Doug Ghim brings to the mix when we look at his par-four scoring acumen throughout the bag.
Ghim ranked first in this field (even over Scottie) for Weighted Par-Four production, and his additional top-five grades for Birdie:Bogey Rate and Weighted Scoring when measuring all 18 holes should only help to amplify that belief.
Max Homa 55/1
I’m not someone who typically bets on Max Homa. In fact, I usually fade him in matchups more often than I back him in any capacity. That said, my model did believe we had reasons to be optimistic about the American this week at odds stretching into the 50/1+ range.
I don’t want this to come across as if everything looks perfect for him inside my sheet. The negative trajectory he’s showing on the upside totals is noteworthy—especially entering a winner-take-all type of market where, if you’re not first, you’re last (queue the Ricky Bobby gif).
But are there reasons to believe that some of that trajectory is stemming from a golfer who destroyed his metrics because of a multiple-year absence from his standard form? And if so, can we find value on a golfer who has shown to be one of the 10 best players in the world in the past? I believe those answers are yes.
Homa's TPC success is noteworthy, and his ability to avoid water has been pronounced. I am happy to take a swing here on a golfer that we know is one of the elite names in this field when he is at his very best. Being able to find that form consistently is the true question.
Pierceson Coody 65/1
To me, there is a three-step process to finding success at the 3M Open.
- Locate the short grass off the tee. Wide misses are quickly punished by the newly added fescue grass or tournament-ending water.
- Hit a green in regulation. Essentially, that means avoiding the water once again.
- Create opportunities at a higher rate than your opponents. Not every putt is going to be made, but golfers who can create looks do have a chance to thrive because of the easy-putting outlook that we get on these greens.
Coody's safety has its questions. You can see some of that with the higher upside and lower safety marks in my sheet. However, let's not forget that winning this tournament means beating Scottie Scheffler. I know he hasn't won in a few months, but we are going to need everything that anyone has to rip this trophy away from the world number one. Coody has the tools to do that.
Mac Meissner 66/1
Another week, another Mac Meissner bet. Some things never change.
I continue to live in a world where Meissner is very close to winning a golf tournament. Whether that is a fairytale or real life remains to be seen, but the data tells a story of someone who is one of the best approach + putting players in the world.
I don't know if the driver can be good enough to avoid the implosion potential off the tee, although that's something I am willing to find out for this price. As you can see below, my model is a Meissner believer.
Davis Chatfield 500/1
Look, we are throwing darts when we get this far down the board, but I don't want this recent stretch of golf from Davis Chatfield to get completely overlooked.
The 27-year-old has posted 12 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better, with a top-25 Weighted Strokes Gained Total output within my model when I merge the metrics to fit TPC Twin Cities.
None of that can overlook the floor that saw him miss nine of 11 cuts before this recent onslaught at secondary events. However, I am fine riding the hot hand here for a tournament that has questions at the top when we ignore the fact that Scottie Scheffler is teeing it up. Perhaps his birdie-making skills can shine through. I also took him to make the cut at +100.
Other Bets: Taylor Moore 150/1, A.J. Ewart 175/1
3M Open Matchup Pick
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -115 over Jason Day
I don't think it is as doom-and-gloom as the rankings show for Jason Day, but matchup betting is about finding safety and extrapolating projections to land on projected win equities for one-versus-one battles.
Outside of the recent production, Day has been okay this season. His ability to avoid trainwrecks is pronounced. His scoring on similar courses is fine. That said, the iron play is where things take a turn for the worse and could spell trouble if he locates the bottom of the lake with that faulty approach production.
My model ranks the Aussie 130th for Overall Proximity, 124th when water danger is increased, and 132nd when approach play is easy to separate from the pack. A hot putter is always there for him to turn those metrics around if he starts draining longer shots. Still, I am willing to fade that profile when it is accompanied by one of the best Birdie: Bogey producers in this field when we dive into Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
