It has always been very important to me, when writing any piece of betting content, to go into the week with the understanding that not all of us have the same matchups or prices available for any particular sector. That is not necessarily the easiest route to navigate in golf, when these boards can often look like the Wild West from one shop to the next, but it has always been imperative that these articles become a source of "teaching" ratherthan pure "touting."
At the end of the day, people want picks. I understand that narrative and will always do my best to highlight a few of the plays I may have grabbed early in the week. You might get a combination of matchups, placements, round one targets or other avenues for any given concept I decide to touch on for an event. Still, with that answer in mind, I want readers to get a deeper dive into additional names I may be trying to target or fade on the board.
That is where the true edge of writing these articles will always come into play when you consider that: 1. numbers are always going to move fast when giving a specific singular action, and 2. availability shifts between shops. That is one of the reasons I release my model weekly on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). If you ever want a full dive into my thoughts, that will give a total blueprint of where I am at for the week.
2026 Sony Open Data-Driven Picks
Players I Am Looking To Back In Matchups
Russell Henley
It is hard to stomach the idea of starting your season with a virtual one-person card that features Russell Henley at his 12/1 or 13/1 prices, but there are plenty of ways to consider him across the market if you are looking for exposure. I grabbed him early in the week at (-134) against Ben Griffin.
My model thought Henley's fair outright number landed right near that 12/1 total, helping him post an implied win probability over 2% higher than any golfer in the field.
For what it is worth, Griffin was not a top-four projected win equity golfer for me and landed a little over four percent lower than Henley did on the board. CollinMorikawa, J.J. Spaun, and Hideki Matsuayama were the names that landed between 2-4.
Adam Svensson
Your options will likely be limited when it comes to finding a way to back Adam Svensson. However, the Canadian enters the week having made all five cuts in his career at Waialae Country Club, including landing inside the top-45 during each iteration of the contest.
My preferred route was to take him in a head-to-head matchup against Adam Schenk, and I found data indicating about a 15% made-cut advantage between the two golfers (65% to 50%).
Yes, Schenk has a ceiling output that can reach a higher level, which we have seen from him in the past, but I am going to ignore Schenk's putting-intensive returns he got in Hawaii last year and focus more on his results before that sixth-place result. Safety is king in this matchup and likely makes Svensson playable as a top-40 wager.
Brian Harman
I placed a straightforward threshold requirement in my model to show only the players who ranked in the top 35 in both projected Proximity 150-175 and 175-200 yards, as well as Expected Total Driving. That reduction left us with the following eight names.
Waialae is a venue that delivers narrow fairways and an extreme uptick in production from specific ranges. Nearly 11% more shots fall in that 50-yard bucket than the PGA Tour average, which starts to deliver this high-end putting acumen needed to work your way up the leaderboard. It is why my model respects spike putting as much as it does this week and devalues some of the short-game stats when only looking for win potential.
We haven't necessarily gotten that expectation from Harman consistently on most Bermuda surfaces in the past. That is one of the main reasons I prefer using someone like him in the head-to-head sector rather than as a pure outright target. Of those eight names, Henley, Spaun, Morikawa, Nico Echavarria, and Matthew McCartyalso landed in the top 50 for their baseline Bermuda putting over a two-year sample size. There may be extra winnability on those targets if the ball-striking stays hot.
Other notable targets: Corey Conners, Maverick McNealy, Harry Hall
Players I Am Looking To Back As An Outright
Collin Morikawa +2200
There are reasons why Collin Morikawa could open this season at 25/1 (or higher) at some locations when all is said and done. That troubling floor shows up in a few ways when diving into the data, but I found my model landing with an interesting return for win equity in this field — an area that saw only two players with an implied win probability over 5%. Those two names would be Henley at 7.69% and Morikawa at 5.13%.
We have seen this song and dance from Morikawa throughout his career of starting hot to begin a season. My model placed him number one in this field over the last few seasons for Strokes Gained: Total over the opening month of the year.
I understand the concerns about his short game as I type this response, though winning this tournament has a lot more to do with spike putting and ball-striking than it does with around-the-green or overall putting woes. My numbers have Morikawa as an expected climber on Bermuda greens with the flat stick, not to mention the 4.7% decrease players typically need to win this tournament versus just making the cut around the green.
Here is where the Strokes Gained Dispersion lands for players who have landed under each threshold over the past five years:
Winners
- OTT – 17.6%
- APP – 33.2%
- ATG – 7.6%
- Putt – 41.4%
Cut Makers
- OTT – 18.4%
- APP – 33.5%
- ATG – 12.3%
- Putt – 35.6%
Other notable targets: J.J. Spaun
Long-shot Players To Consider In Various Markets
Mac Meissner +7500 | Matt McCarty +6500 | Denny McCarthy +6500
These three next to each other feel like an Eminem triple entendre of sorts. M&M, and M&M, and another M. Hoping to find a gem, while backing all of them.
While my rhyme scheme could use a little work in its progression (I will stick to my day job of writing golf content versus raps), there are reasons to be optimistic about all three names here this weekend in Hawaii. Let me give two-to three-sentence fillers for each to try to convince you to throw a dart.
Mac Meissner closed his season by saving his tour card, making seven cuts in a row. A lot of that good run stemmed from an overall rendering of his stats across the board. I am not so sure his upside is quite as high as my model believes (+3650 proper), but I will always take my shots when an edge like that presents itself.
Matt McCartywas mentioned earlier when I talked about the eight golfers to deliver in the top 35 for both projected Proximity 150-175 and 175-200 yards, as well as Expected Total Driving. My biggest takeaway from that offering was how he also cracked the final five names to add an expected Bermuda putting return inside of the top 50 after further condensing that list. We will see if that is enough to overcome a measly 65th at this course in his only career attempt.
Denny McCarthy has been knocking on the door of a career breakthrough for a few seasons now. We have seen him go from 48th to 32nd to 24th and then 16th last season in his previous four attempts at the venue. If we continue that progression of eight or 16 spots, his first title may come from within that data. My model ranked him as a top-10 golfer in projected win equity.
Other notable targets I considered: Daniel Berger — I couldn't do it for the 20th consecutive week
