We were a lip-out away from having Collin Morikawa in the playoff with Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland last week at the Travelers Championship. It was another week without a win. It feels like we are close, but we still have a long way to go if we want to close the year with a profit. Luckily, I am changing up the strategy moving forward.
With a lack of outright success this year, I decided to try my hand at some simulations. Late last week, I built a new model that allows me to simulate golf tournaments.
I simulated the John Deere Classic 5,000 times. I'm excited to go over the results. My bets this week will be based on a combination of the sims and some common sense.
Let's take a look at my John Deere Classic picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's major tournament at TPC Deere Run.
John Deere Classic Preview: TPC Deere Run
We have another full-field event this week, which means we get to enjoy the Friday cut sweat. There are 144 golfers set to tee it up at TPC Deere Run, which is a Par 71 that measures 7,327 yards. Each of the last 5 winners of the event finished with scores of at least -18, so we can expect a lot of birdies to be made in Silvis, Illinois, this week.
Many think of this course as more of a technical track where golfers are more conservative off the tee, but that's not what the numbers tell us. In 2025, golfers hit driver on 76% of non-Par 3 tee shots and averaged 299 yards off the tee. Both of those marks are well above the TOUR average, which means this is more of a driver-heavy course than most realize.
When you look at the course specifics, it's easy to see why golfers have become more aggressive off the tee at this event. The fairways are generous (36 yards wide), and there are long Par 4s and long Par 5s on the scorecard. There's also not a huge difference in greens in regulation rate from the fairway compared to the rough.
The greens here are small (5,500 square feet) and feature pure bentgrass. Despite their size, the greens are easy to hit in regulation, especially when the wind is down. The forecast calls for a little wind on Thursday and Friday, but the weekend looks calm with some potential rain, which would soften up the course.
Strokes Gained: Approach is always the most important statistic in golf, but I created a new statistic to help decipher which golfers should hit their irons the best on this specific course. I take the expected approach shot distributions and apply those to the proximity numbers from each yardage bucket.
Ultimately, the name of the game at TPC Deere Run is making birdies. Whether you are an elite ball striker or an elite putter, you have to make birdies in bunches to put yourself in contention at this course.
John Deere Classic Predictions, Picks
As noted in the introduction, I created a new model that runs 5,000 simulations of this event based on all of the inputs in my model (which change based on the course). Rather than going off gut feel and who projects the best on a ratings basis, I want my bets to lean into these simulations.
Before we get into the picks, here are the win, top 5, and top 10 probabilities from the model compared to market odds:
Jackson Koivun to win +2700 (DraftKings)
The best college golfer has officially turned pro and will make his pro debut at the Travelers Championship. While this will be his first pro start, he's no stranger to the PGA TOUR. He just finished in the top 25 at the U.S. Open, and he finished T11 or better in 4 straight starts on TOUR last year, including a T11 finish at the John Deere Classic.
This event has been a springboard for young stars to pick up their first wins (Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Davis Thompson), so I could see Koivun adding his name to that list.
He's played great in much stronger fields than this. I like his chances this week.
Eric Cole to win +3300 (BetMGM)
Cole has been on my betting card a few times this season, and he's come so close to picking up his first win on TOUR. He finished runner-up at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he posted top 10s at the Memorial Tournament and the Myrtle Beach Classic, and he led last week's Travelers Championship for a significant amount of time in the first couple of rounds.
He's always been excellent on approach, around the green, and on the green, but the strides he has made with his driver have paid big dividends. He's one of the best birdie makers in the field, so +3300 feels more than fair.
Jackson Suber to win +5600 (DraftKings)
All of the attention is on the other young star named Jackson in this field, but we shouldn't be so quick to count out Suber. He has 2 top 5 finishes in his last 6 starts on TOUR and has some very appealing statistics on his resume this week.
Over the last 6 months, he's 9th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in Birdie or Better %. In my new weighted proximity metric (which is based on approach shot distances expected at TPC Deere Run), he's 2nd in the field.
He missed the cut here last year, but I like that he's seen the course.
Blades Brown top 5 +1300 and top 10 +700 (FanDuel)
My card is full of potential stars this week, as I'm also betting on Brown to finish in the top 5 and the top 10. His T55 finish in last week's limited field wasn't anything to write home about, but he had 5 straight top 20 finishes in a row before that.
Most of those events had stronger fields than this one. He's solid off the tee, he's an excellent iron player, and he makes as many birdies as anyone. The only golfer who rates out better in my new weighted proximity metric than Suber is Brown.
I don't hate the outright at +6600, but I am just betting the top 5 and top 10.
Kevin Yu top 5 +1700 and top 10 +850 (FanDuel)
Yu hasn't flashed on the first page of many leaderboards this year, but this could be one of his best events of 2026. This course is more driver-heavy than most realize, and Yu is one of the best drivers of the ball in the field.
He grades out well in my weighted proximity metric for this course, and he's top 10 in this field in Birdie or Better %. While the recent form has been spotty, he's coming off a T29 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, where he gained over 8 strokes in ball striking.
When you couple that with the fact that he's posted 3 straight top 25s at this event, it's hard not to like him at these odds.
