Premier Lacrosse League Betting Preview: 8 PLL Prop Bets for Week 11

The Premier Lacrosse League regular season wraps up in Seattle with four games – all with playoff-seeding implications. Once again, we have a plethora of player props available to bet on during the final weekend of the regular season. So, let’s take a look at my favorite prop bets for PLL week 11.

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Chrome (-1.5) vs. Redwoods

Odds via DraftKings.

Both Chrome and Redwoods enter the first Saturday matchup riding two-game winning streaks. While the Redwoods offense has finally found its groove, the Chrome defense’s ability to shut down some of the top offenses has arguably been more impressive. In their past three games, the Chrome held each of their opponents to just nine goals. Their scores against average (SAA) of 10 goals per game ranks second in the PLL and their 22% efficiency in settled defense ranks first this season and second all-time.

The success of this Chrome defense is why I think Ryder Garnsey’s recent hot streak ends this weekend. After an underwhelming start to the season, which included being held scoreless by the Chrome in Week 2, Garnsey has come alive, averaging more than three points per game through the past seven games. A lot of his success has come from being a recipient of assists from Rob Pannell, who leads the league in assists with 21. Yet, Pannell draw one of his toughest matchups of the year this week in defender of the year favorite JT Giles-Harris. Giles-Harris held Pannell to just one point in the teams’ first meeting an Garnsey failed to record a point. While I think the Woods will have more success than they did previously, Garnsey’s points prop of 2.5 feels lofty against this defense. I recommend betting the under on his points prop, which you can get at even money on DraftKings.

The Chrome defense isn’t the only group that could give the Woods trouble. The Chrome offense, which features rookie of the year favorite Brendan Nichtern, will go up against a Redwoods defense that ranks last in settled defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the defense will be without its leader Eddy Glazener, who suffered a partially torn Achilles last week, and could be missing starter Arden Cohen and veteran LSM Kyle Hartzell. This sets up a great opportunity for Nichtern to go over his assists prop of 2.5. Nichtern has surpassed this mark in four of Chrome's games this season and will likely draw the top pole this weekend, which may limit his scoring chances, but should prompt him to try and feed his teammates more. This is why I’ll be betting over 2.5 assists (+105 on DraftKings) for Nichtern.

A Chrome midfielder who could be on the receiving end of a Nichtern assist is Jordan MacIntosh, who has averaged 1.75 points per game and gone over his current points prop of 1.5 in five of eight games this season. MacIntosh missed Chrome’s first meeting with the Redwoods to be present for the birth of his first child, so he’ll get a fresh crack at a banged-up Redwoods defense on Saturday. Given his consistency and the Woods’ shortcomings on defense, I’m betting over 1.5 points for MacIntosh (-135 on DraftKings).

Picks: Brendan Nichtern Over 2.5 Assists | Ryder Garnsey Under 2.5 Points | Jordan MacIntosh Over 1.5 Points

Archers (-1.5) vs. Waterdogs

Odds via BetMGM.

The Archers and Waterdogs face off with seeding on the line and a potential first-round rematch on the horizon. The Waterdogs have gotten a ton of offensive production from stars Michael Sowers, Kieran McArdle and Connor Kelly. Yet, their unsung hero has been the workhorse who does it all over the field: Zach Currier.

While Currier hasn’t been lighting it up in the points column, he’s contributed heavily between the lines when it comes to securing ground balls and generating transition. Lucky for him, he’ll face an Archers defense that has allowed goals on 33% of transition opportunities (tied for the second-worst). While the Waterdogs offense (and defense) has also struggled mightily in transition, I think Currier will be more inclined to try and make things happen this weekend. 

The veteran midfielder has had a point in every game this season and is averaging 1.78 points per game. Last year, against an Archers defense that has experienced little to no turnover, Currier recorded two points on five shots. Given his production and a favorable matchup against the Archers, I like betting him to go over his points prop of 1.5, which you can get at -130 on BetMGM.

On the Archers’ side, Ryan Ambler continues to fly under the radar despite being one of Archers’ most consistent weapons. Last week, we cashed in on over 1.5 points for Ambler at -115 thanks to the midfielder’s hat trick, and the sportsbooks rewarded us by giving us the same exact number this week, despite a similarly favorable matchup.

Ambler always makes the most of his opportunities and has been averaging more than 1.5 points per game in the past two seasons. He’s also gotten more use, particularly in inverted sets (dodging behind the cage against short-stick defenders), and has taken an average of more than seven shots per game in the last three games. Similar to Currier, Ambler recorded two points in these teams’ last matchup, and the Waterdogs have been susceptible to getting beat at the substitution game, which is where Ambler and his Archers teammates thrive. Based on all this, I’m once again betting Ambler to go over 1.5 points (-115 on BetMGM) this Saturday.

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Pick: Zach Currier Over 1.5 Points | Ryan Ambler Over 1.5 Points

Whipsnakes (-2.5) vs. Cannons

Odds via DraftKings.

The Whipsnakes and Cannons enter their final game of the regular season on completely different trajectories. The 8-1 Whipsnakes locked up the top seed and a bye last week and have nothing to play for in Week 11. The 1-8 Cannons are fighting for their playoff lives and need to not only win, but hope Chaos loses potentially by two goals or more in order to sneak into the playoffs. It’s due or die for Lyle Thompson and the Cannons.

Thanks to a subpar game by Thompson’s standards last week, his goals prop remains at 2.5 this week, despite failing to surpass this mark just three times this season. Two of those times came when facing defenseman of the year favorite JT Giles-Harris, and in all three of those games, Thompson fell just one goal shy of a hat trick. In last year’s matchup with a Whipsnakes defense that wasn’t yet worn down by the season, Thompson dropped four goals.

Whipsnakes head coach Jim Stagnitta has made it clear that he intends to have his starters play, but you have to wonder if a Whips team that has nothing to play for can keep a desperate Thompson in check. Lyle Thompson in an elimination game is not someone I want to fade, and given his output this season, I am betting him to go over his goals prop of 2.5 (-125 on DraftKings).

Pick: Lyle Thompson Over 2.5 Goals

Atlas (-1.5) vs.  Chaos

Odds via BetMGM.

Atlas and Chaos wrap up the weekend with a game that could determine the final PLL playoff spot depending on whether Cannons take care of business. 

While we know that Jeff Teat can score goals, we’ve recently seen him play the role of facilitator more than goal-scorer. A lot of this has to do with how many PLL defenses play Teat. Teat is someone you stick your top defender on and prepare to slide early too. This is why Teat has recently taken fewer shots and has failed to notch a hat trick since Week 4. 

Lucky for him, he’ll get to face a defense that refuses to slide and has allowed the most shots by a wide margin. Even reigning MVP Blaze Riorden, who is listed as questionable heading into this weekend, is rarely going to be able to stop Teat when he gets his hands free. 

His goal prop is currently set at 2.5, and I think that he’ll be able to go over this number like he did last season against the Chaos in the regular season, scoring four goals on 10 shots. Teat has had a hat trick in every game in which he’s taken eight shots or more, and I think he’ll be able to register a high number of shots, especially if Baptistes continues to win Atlas an unproportionate amount of possessions. Against other bottom-tier defenses this season (Cannons and Redwoods), Teat has averaged more than three goals per game. I expect a similar output on Sunday and am betting over 2.5 goals at +105 on DraftKings.

On the Chaos side, I’m betting a player to go under their points prop. Dhane Smith is a player who consistently puts up two or three points per game, but he rarely records four or more (at least in professional field lacrosse). 

Since Smith’s seven-point game in Dallas, his points prop has remained high at 3.5. Although Smith has gone over this number twice in six games this season, he’s only recorded more than three points just six times in his PLL career. We were able to cash in when betting under his points prop a few weeks ago, and I think this week is another good time to fade Smith and bet under 3.5 points (+100 on BetMGM).

Picks: Dhane Smith Under 3.5 Points | Jeff Teat Over 2.5 Goals

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