Premier Lacrosse League Betting Preview: 5 PLL Prop Bets for Week 10

The Premier Lacrosse League heads to Salt Lake City, Utah for Week 10 and there are several matchups with playoff implications. There are also several player matchups that I’m looking to take advantage of this weekend. So, let’s take a look at my favorite prop bets for PLL Week 10.

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Atlas vs. Whipsnakes (-1.5)

Odds via BetMGM.

Atlas seeks its first win against the Whipsnakes this weekend in the teams’ second meeting of the season. In their previous meeting, the Whipsnakes handed Atlas their first loss of the season, 12-9. Despite the loss, the Atlas had a significant possession advantage and were plagued by poor shooting and the Whipsnakes' ability to put three two-pointers past Jack Concannon.

Dan Bucaro scored two goals in the first meeting and has managed to record at least one point in six of his seven games. Bucaro has traditionally thrived as a goal scorer, but as Joe Keegan highlighted in his 10-Man Ride Newsletter, Bucaro has recently been pairing with Jeff Teat on the left wing. Following their first meeting, Teat discussed how he didn’t take enough of an active role in the offense when playing the Whips, which was underscored by his one-goal, two-shot stat line. 

I think the Atlas are going to try and get Teat more involved against this Whipsnakes defense and are going to do so via the pairing of Bucaro and Teat. Last week against the Waterdogs, the duo connected on a goal and I think we’ll see some similar opportunities this week. Even if the Whips try to prevent Teat from getting his hands free on the catch-and-shoot, Bucaro should be able to connect on other assist opportunities with any one of Atlas’ offensive weapons. That’s why I’m betting the over on Bucaro’s 0.5 assists prop at +185 (BetMGM). The plus-money value on Bucaro recording one assist is too high to pass up and I would bet it down to +150.

Pick: Dan Bucaro Over 0.5 Assists

Waterdogs (-1.5) vs. Redwoods

Odds via BetMGM.

The Waterdogs are the hottest team in the PLL and are riding a five-game win streak that includes wins against the three teams ahead of them in the standings (Whipsnakes, Atlas, Chrome). Their week 10 opponent is the Redwoods, who — despite their 3-5 record — are playing better down the stretch. While I don’t like betting on either side in this game, I think there is an opportunity to fade one of the Waterdogs star players in Connor Kelly.

Kelly had a monster game last week, recording five points thanks to three singles and a two-pointer. He’s also managed to have at least one goal in all but one of the Waterdogs games. However, his points prop is currently set at 3.5 and is juiced to the over. While Kelly has played well, he’s only had four or more points in four of 22 games as a member of the Waterdogs. 

I think his points prop this week is just too high and you can get some plus money on betting under 3.5 points (+110 on DraftKings).  There is always a risk he could score a two-pointer, but 3.5 is still a safe number when considering his threat from range and that the Redwoods have given up the second-fewest two-point goals (4) through eight games this season. 

Pick: Connor Kelly Under 3.5 Points

Archers (-1.5) vs. Chaos

Odds via BetMGM.

The Chaos take on the Archers for the second time this season and once again we are fading a Chaos defense that has lived and (often) died by its refusal to slide when defenders are beaten. Blaze Riroden is a phenomenal goalie, but he can only do so much against the Archers' sharpshooters, who are shooting a league-best 34%. This year, Chaos has allowed the second-worst shooting percentage in settled situations and is giving up the highest percentage of unassisted goals. While many of the Archers points and goals props are too high for my liking, there are two players whose props I’m eyeing this week.

The first is Grant Ament, who returned to the Archers lineup three weeks ago after dealing with a hamstring injury to start the season. He’s taken some time to get up to speed, but has seen steady progress and hasn’t been afraid to shoot the ball, averaging more than four shots per game. Given the Chaos’ propensity to not slide early, I think Ament will be more likely to dodge to score than feed on Saturday and think his goals prop at 1.5 (-115 on DraftKings) is worth betting. Ament has recorded two goals in his past three meetings with the Chaos and that was when the Chaos defense was playing significantly better.

Another player I like is Ryan Ambler, who has been flying a bit under the radar. Ambler makes the most of his limited touches, averaging exactly 1.5 points per game in the past two seasons, which is what his points prop is set at this week. However, the Archers have been utilizing Ambler more, particularly in inverted sets (dodging behind the cage against short-stick defenders), and he’s had three goals on 12 shots through the past two games. Ambler has also thrived against this Chaos defense recently, recording two points in the past two meetings. I think it’s worth betting Ambler to go over 1.5 points (-115 on DraftKings) this Saturday.

Picks: Grant Ament Over 1.5 Goals, Ryan Ambler Over 1.5 Points

Chrome (-2.5) vs. Cannons

Odds via BetMGM.

Needing to win out in the final two weeks, the Cannons face a Chrome defense that boasts the second-best settled defensive efficiency in the past three seasons (22.2%). Despite a 1-7 record and playoff hopes dwindling, Lyle Thompson has done all he can to save the Cannons’ season. He currently leads the league in points (36) and goals (22), averaging 4.5 points per game. I think Thompson’s points prop is too high to bet against this Chrome defense, but, as we’ve seen in every game this year, Thompson is going to put up points. That’s why I like betting over 1.5 assists (-150 on BetMGM).

The Chrome managed to hold Thompson to his lowest goal total of the season (two) when these teams faced off in Week 4. However, Thompson used that as an opportunity to distribute the ball to his teammates and tied his highest assist total of the season (3). I think the Chrome defense is going to try and take away Thompson’s strengths as a goal-scorer, which will force him to look to feed. With his assist total set at only 1.5 assists, I think it’s worth betting over that mark at its current price of -150.

Pick: Lyle Thompson Over 1.5 Assists