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Premier Lacrosse League Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Archers vs. Cannons, Redwoods vs. Chaos

Premier Lacrosse League Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Archers vs. Cannons, Redwoods vs. Chaos article feature image
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Week three of the 2022 Premier Lacrosse League season continues with two Saturday afternoon matchups.

The Archers take on the Cannons at 1 p.m. ET, with both teams looking to remain above .500 in the win column.

The other matchup features the winless Redwoods and Chaos each seeking their first victory of the season.

Let’s look at the best betting angles for each game.

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Archers (-1.5) vs. Cannons

Archers Odds -180
Cannons Odds +145
Total 24.5
Time Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
TV ABC

Odds via DraftKings

The Archers enter this Saturday afternoon game as 1.5-point favorites for the third straight week. The Cannons open as underdogs for the third week in a row, although they are only getting +1.5 this weekend compared to +2.5 last week.

The total is set at 24.5 across all sportsbooks.

Grant Ament and Lyle Thompson, two of the game’s biggest stars, were listed as questionable heading into the game, but were confirmed as activated on Friday night.

Ament returns after missing the first two weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury. His presence provides another initiator to a team that saw an offensive explosion in week two.

He joins an offense that ranked second in offensive efficiency heading into this week, converting on 35.7% of its scoring opportunities despite having the second-fewest possessions.

The Archers’ defense has also played well through two weeks, but will once again be without starting defender Warren Jeffrey for one more week while he plays in game three of the National Lacrosse League Finals.

The Archers’ defense is at its best when playing settled defense, ranking first in defensive efficiency with opposing offenses only converting at a 16% rate.

However, they’ll face the Cannons, who are most efficient in transition, converting on 50% of their scoring chances on the break.

Transition is an area that the Archers’ defense looks a bit more mortal. They’ll have a disadvantage at the face-off stripe for the second week in a row, which should lead to plenty of transition chances for the Cannons.

On the other end, the Cannons welcome star attackman Thompson back in the lineup after being sidelined in week two with a wrist injury. Thompson’s addition to the lineup is an important one, even if he’s not able to be as effective coming back from injury.

His presence draws the attention of the defense, and opens up opportunities for other players like Asher Nolting and Stephen Rehfuss, as seen in the team’s first game against the Waterdogs.

We’ve already highlighted that the Cannons can score at a high rate in transition, and that should get a boost via Stephen Kelly’s advantage at the face-off this weekend.

However, through two weeks the Cannons rank even higher in settled offense, converting on 31% of scoring chances, which sits right above the Archers’ 30% settled offensive efficiency.

On the other end of the field, the Cannons’ defense struggled in week two against the highly-efficient Atlas offense, and those same struggles will likely manifest against this Archers team.

While the Cannons currently rank second in settled defensive efficiency behind the Archers, they have relied heavily on goaltender Nick Marrocco, who made a league-high 32 saves through the first two weeks.

The Cannons will have a much tougher time against this Archers offense, especially with Ament back in the lineup.

Ultimately, these two offenses are too efficient to not have a lot of success finding the back of the net on Saturday. Coupled with the fact that this game should be played at a fast tempo, I suggest betting Over 24.5 goals.

Although betting against Thompson is never fun, I also like betting the under for his points prop of 4.5. The fact that Thompson was held out of week two with a wrist injury shouldn’t be overlooked, and he’ll have to face the league’s best settled offense in his return.

As dominant as Lyle looked in week one and has been during his pro lacrosse career, he’s only recorded more than 4.5 points three times in 11 PLL games.

I’m banking on Thompson not being 100% heading into this game, and I think there is value in taking under 4.5 points at -115 on DraftKings.

Pick: Over 24.5 | Lyle Thompson Under 4.5 points

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Redwoods (-1.5) vs. Chaos

Redwoods Odds -140
Chaos Odds +110
Total 22.5
Time Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+

Odds via DraftKings

The Redwoods open as 1.5-point favorites for the second straight week, despite an abysmal performance in week two that saw them fail to score more than three goals — a PLL record for fewest goals by a team in a game.

The Chaos will be once again without four offensive starters and their leading face-off man, Max Adler, due to the NLL Finals.

The total is currently set at 22.5 across all sportsbooks.

A lot of the Redwoods’ success in 2021 was generated by TD Ierlan’s impact at the face-off stripe. Yet, through two games in 2022, Ierlan has gone just 43% — a concerning rate when you consider his 65% face-off rate before he got injured last season.

He’ll have a favorable matchup this week with Adler still absent, though.

The Redwoods will also have a slightly favorable matchup in terms of scheme, since the Chaos defense prefers to press out and limit sliding. The Chaos trust their defenders to win their one-on-one matchups and let 2021 MVP Blaze Riorden make saves during the rare times they get beat.

This works in the Redwoods’ favor simply because they have a handful of offensive weapons who can beat their man off the dodge. Their struggles have been a stagnant offense that lacks ball movement and lacks finishers.

While those issues shouldn’t be amplified by the Chaos defense, they’ll still be going up against Riorden, who’s averaged a 63.4% save percentage through five games against the Redwoods.

It’d be an overreaction to expect the Redwoods’ offense to put up less than four goals again this week, but another poor offensive showing is not off the table.

The offense ranks last in offensive efficiency (20.6%) and has not converted on any of its six transition opportunities this season. The team prefers to play settled six-on-six offense despite ranking second-worst through two weeks.

The Redwoods’ defense will also benefit from facing an offense that doesn’t rank in the top three.

The Chaos’ offensive woes in week one were not as prevalent in week two, which can be attributed to the return of Wes Berg and Austin Staats. Still, it’d be naive to expect this team to improve much more while still missing key starters like Dhane Smith, Josh Byrne, Chase Fraser and Chris Cloutier.

The Chaos’ offense will also have to make the most of what could be a limited amount of possessions if Ierlan is able to dominate at the face-off stripe.

They only generated 57 shots through their first two games, which ranks last in the league. The next closest team was the Redwoods with only 59 shots through two games.

If the Redwoods do gain a substantial possession advantage and are able to limit the Chaos’ transition opportunities, they’ll be able to control the pace of this game.

For bettors, that often means fewer, longer possessions. Converting on those possessions will be a tougher task when facing Riorden.

Ultimately, I think the offenses will struggle to generate enough to push this total over 22.5. I like backing under 22.5, as I expect a slow-paced, close finish between these two winless teams.

Pick: Under 22.5

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