Angels vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2024

Angels at Guardians

5:40 pm • BSW

Los Angeles Angels

12-15

1 - 4

Cleveland Guardians

15-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Carrasco			5.64	3-10
G.Canning			5.19	6-13

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Angels 12-15	+1.5-162	o8-115	+130
Guardians 15-13	-1.5+136	u8-106	-155

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

May 05, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

CLE -1-110

1.82u

C.Carrasco u4.5 Ks-135

0.74u

Ballpark pal projects 3.84 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -175 giving value to this number

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-113

LAA +114

Cleveland already blew the division

C.Carrasco u15.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Under in 5/6. Not usually pushed past 90 pitches either (hasn’t happened this season, and was under 90 in 16/20 starts last year). Carrasco is 134th/145 in zone % amongst pitchers with 20+ IP, and is 95th in chase rate. Angels with the 7th lowest chase%, and the third highest pitches per PA. They will also likely have 5-6 lefties in the lineup today - Carrasco allowing a 1.021 OPS against lefties.

CLE -120

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -140

Over 4.5 (F5)-122

1.22u

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Featured Insight
Guardians have struck out just 19% since last season -- lowest in MLB. Angels RPs have a strikeout rate of just 22% since last season -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI Picks: Top 4 Bets For Sunday
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May 5, 2024 UTC

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The Angels are just 97-42 (.698) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

32% of Steven Kwan strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 10th highest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. 42% of Jason Foley strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Griffin Canning has allowed an OPS of 1.221 (54 PA's) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .685 -- first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .393 (55-for-140) against Carlos Carrasco's inside fastball since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .261 -- 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.482 (218 PA's) when he's behind in the count since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 1.059 -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 6-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Guardians' 13 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	12-16	6-7	6-9	6-4	6-11
Angels	11-16	5-4	6-12	1-7	9-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	15-11-2	7-6	8-5-2	6-4	9-6-2
Angels	12-14-1	3-5-1	9-9	2-5-1	10-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	15-13	8-5	7-8	8-2	7-10
Angels	12-15	5-4	7-11	4-4	7-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	LAA	W 7-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -130
May 3rd	LAA	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 7.5	LAA -205
May 3rd	@HOU	L 2-8	+1.5 L	O 9	HOU +120
May 2nd	@HOU	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	CLE +154
May 1st	@HOU	L 9-10	+1.5 W	O 9	HOU +143

Vince Velasquez
SP
Velasquez is out with elbow
Out
Shane Bieber
SP
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
Slade Cecconi
SP
Cecconi is out with oblique
Out
John Means
SP
Means is out with elbow
Out
Lane Thomas
CF
Thomas is out with wrist
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out

Anthony Rendon
3B
Rendon is out with hip
Out
Yoan Moncada
3B
Moncada is out with thumb
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Canning, P	87	6	5	2
RA.Cimber, P	14	1	2	0
LM.Moore, P	20	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Schanuel, 1B	0-4	0	0
2M.Moniak, CF	1-3	0	0
2K.Pillar, PH	0-1	0	0
2K.Pillar, CF	0-1	0	0
3T.Ward, LF	1-4	0	0
4W.Calhoun, DH	1-4	1	0
5B.Drury, 2B	0-4	0	0
6M.Thaiss, C	0-3	0	0
7J.Adell, RF	0-1	0	1
8C.Tucker, 3B	2-3	0	0
9Z.Neto, SS	1-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	71	6	3	1
RS.Barlow, P	16	1	2	0
LT.Herrin, P	9	1	0	0
RE.Clase, P	10	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Florial, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2A.Gimenez, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	2	1	2
4J.Naylor, 1B	2-4	1	1	2
5W.Brennan, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Laureano, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Naylor, C	0-2	0	0	0
8T.Freeman, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9G.Arias, SS	0-3	0	0	0