MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Model Predictions (Sunday, May 5)
We had just one pick yesterday, which unfortunately didn't work out for us, bringing the season record to 68-53 for 11.5 units of profit. Fortunately, we have more pitchers with sufficient sample size to project on Sunday.
That gives us four NRFI/YRFI picks and predictions for Sunday, May 5 with games scheduled throughout the afternoon today.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Model Predictions (Sunday, May 5)
Starting Pitchers: Alek Manoah vs. Mackenzie Gore
It's looking like a breakout season for Mackenzie Gore, which is making the Juan Soto trade from Washington to San Diego feel like a win for the Nationals. He has a 3.19 ERA, and slightly lower SIERA and xFIP numbers this season.
He's also been a strong starter, with a 2.03 xFIP his first time through the order.
It's the first start of the year for Alek Manoah who struggled overall last season, but to his credit his first time through the order stats were slightly better than his overall numbers. Manoah just needs to get three outs against the 23rd-ranked Washington offense for this bet.
The eight-run total means we don't have much wiggle room on the line, but it should be noted that "first inning tie" is the same price at Caesars, and a slightly better value thanks to the possibility of ties other than 0-0.
Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning vs. Carlos Carrasco
This game projects similarly as the one above, thanks to an identical eight-run total.
We're getting a better price on the NRFI, but that's because we're taking a bit of a leap on both pitchers regressing to their underlying metrics. Canning and Carrasco both have bloated ERAs this season, but much lower underlying metrics.
Crucially, these offenses aren't especially threatening at the top, at least with Mike Trout no longer a part of the Angels first three hitters.
Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller vs. Hunter Brown
Stop me if you've heard this one, but this game features an eight-run total and a pitcher due for some major positive regression. In this case it's Hunter Brown, who has an awful 9.78 ERA, but an xFIP less than half that at 4.22.
His first time through the order xFIP is an even better 3.35, and part of his struggles are matchup-based. Four of his six starts have came against top-11 offenses by wRC+, while Seattle ranks 22nd.
On the other side, Bryce Miller has been excellent both in actual production and ERA predictors, plus his first time through the order ERA is 1.26. He has a tougher task against the Astros, but his numbers suggest he's up to it.
If you don't have access to BetMGM, I'd take this line at BetRivers (-124) or Caesars (-125) but no further.
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. James Paxton
It's a strength-on-strength matchup, as two top-five lineups square off with two solid starting pitchers. However, James Paxton's 3.51 ERA is a bit misleading — he has xFIP and xERA numbers on the wrong side of six.
Fried's underlying numbers are excellent, but he has to get through the Dodgers stacked lineup. Their first three hitters rank first, second, and 18th in wRC+ among major leaguers this year.
Both teams are fairly equally likely to score here, with the Dodgers superior hitters taking on the tougher pitcher. If you can't get it at BetMGM, this bet is widely available within the listed threshold.
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