Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 28, 2023

Guardians at Red Sox

11:10 pm • NESN

Cleveland Guardians

1-2

5 - 2

Boston Red Sox

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
N.Pivetta			4.04	10-9
S.Bieber			3.80	6-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 1-2	N/A	N/A	N/A
Red Sox 1-2	N/A	N/A	N/A

Friday 11:10 p.m.

April 28, 2023

Fenway ParkBoston

Under 9-120

Over 8.5-117

Under 9-112

0.5u

Bet to -115 or 8.5 (+103)

BOS +120

0.5u

Bet to +115

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday
Billy Ward•
Apr 28, 2023 UTC

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Josh Naylor has a miss rate of only 15% on elevated fastballs since last season -- tied for 15th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Nick Pivetta has located his fastball up 56% of the time since last season -- tied for second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Myles Straw is slugging just .220 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- second worst in MLB-- first Percentile. Nick Pivetta has thrown his curveball 28% of the time since last season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (92/143) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .082 (4-for-49) against Shane Bieber with two-strikes this season -- tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 -- 95th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (383/863) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (14/28) against Nick Pivetta on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 27% -- 99th Percentile.

The Red Sox are just 23-39 (.371) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season -- 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.

The Guardians are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Guardians are 27-7 (.794) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Red Sox are 8-8 (.500) as underdogs this season -- tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	87-75	43-38	44-37	53-50	34-23
Guardians	86-76	39-42	47-34	33-36	51-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	76-82-4	33-45-3	43-37-1	50-50-3	26-30-1
Guardians	69-87-6	37-41-3	32-46-3	34-34-1	34-50-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	89-73	48-33	41-40	61-42	28-29
Guardians	88-74	45-36	43-38	44-25	43-46

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	@BAL	L 2-6	-	-	-
Apr 25th	@BAL	W 8-6	-	-	-
Apr 24th	@BAL	L 4-5	-	-	-
Apr 23rd	@MIL	W 12-5	-	-	-
Apr 22nd	@MIL	L 4-5	-	-	-

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out

Johan Oviedo
SP
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Jovani Moran
RP
Moran is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Bieber, P	99	7	4	2
RT.Stephan, P	14	1	1	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-5	1	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-3	0	0	1
5J.Bell, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6A.Gimenez, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7M. Zunino, C	1-4	1	1	1
8W.Brennan, RF	1-3	2	1	1
9M.Straw, CF	1-4	0	0	1

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P		100	5	5	4
RK.Crawford, P		52	4	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	0-4	0	1
2M.Yoshida, LF	1-4	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	1-4	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, PR	0-0	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, DH	0-0	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	0
5T.Casas, 1B	0-3	1	0
6J.Duran, CF	3-4	0	0
7E.Hernandez, SS	2-4	1	1
8R.McGuire, C	0-4	0	0
9E.Valdez, 2B	1-4	0	0