Guardians vs Red Sox Odds: Moneyline, Over/Under, Props - April 28, 2023

CLE @ BOS

11:10 pm • NESN

Cleveland Guardians

20-10

5 - 2

Boston Red Sox

18-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
N.Pivetta			4.04	10-9
S.Bieber			3.80	6-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 20-10	-1.5+130	o9-105	-126
Red Sox 18-13	+1.5-160	u9-115	+106

Friday 11:10 p.m.

April 28, 2023

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Billy Ward•
Apr 28, 2023 UTC

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Josh Naylor has a miss rate of only 15% on elevated fastballs since last season -- tied for 15th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Nick Pivetta has located his fastball up 56% of the time since last season -- tied for second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Myles Straw is slugging just .220 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- second worst in MLB-- first Percentile. Nick Pivetta has thrown his curveball 28% of the time since last season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (92/143) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .082 (4-for-49) against Shane Bieber with two-strikes this season -- tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 -- 95th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (383/863) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (14/28) against Nick Pivetta on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 27% -- 99th Percentile.

The Red Sox are just 23-39 (.371) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season -- 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.

The Guardians are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Guardians are 27-7 (.794) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Red Sox are 8-8 (.500) as underdogs this season -- tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

CLE

BOS

CLE ML

BOS ML

Over

Under

No props found

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	@BAL	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	BAL +110
Apr 25th	@BAL	W 8-6	+1.5 W	O 9	BOS +133
Apr 24th	@BAL	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -120
Apr 23rd	@MIL	W 12-5	+1.5 W	O 8	BOS +142
Apr 22nd	@MIL	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	MIL +110

Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 11-5 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Red Sox' 15 last games at home

MLB Public Betting

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	17-14	6-9	11-5	5-8	12-6
Guardians	21-9	8-4	13-5	9-6	12-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	13-16-2	6-8-1	7-8-1	6-7	7-9-2
Guardians	16-12-2	8-3-1	8-9-1	11-3-1	5-9-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	18-13	7-8	11-5	9-4	9-9
Guardians	20-10	8-4	12-6	11-4	9-6

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Angel Martinez
IF
Martinez is out with foot
Out
Gavin Williams
P
Williams is out with elbow
Out

Trevor Story
IF
Story is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Nick Pivetta
P
Pivetta is out with elbow
Out
Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is day-to-day with knee
Day-to-Day
Triston Casas
IF
Casas is out with ribs
Out
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is out with back
Out
Vaughn Grissom
IF
Grissom is out with groin
Out
Romy Gonzalez
IF
Gonzalez is out with wrist
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Bieber, P	99	7	4	2
RT.Stephan, P	14	1	1	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-5	1	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-3	0	0	1
5J.Bell, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6A.Gimenez, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7M. Zunino, C	1-4	1	1	1
8W.Brennan, RF	1-3	2	1	1
9M. Straw, CF	1-4	0	0	1

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P		100	5	5	4
RK.Crawford, P		52	4	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	0-4	0	1
2M.Yoshida, LF	1-4	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	1-4	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, PR	0-0	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, DH	0-0	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	0
5T.Casas, 1B	0-3	1	0
6J.Duran, CF	3-4	0	0
7K.Hernandez, SS	2-4	1	1
8R.McGuire, C	0-4	0	0
9E.Valdez, 2B	1-4	0	0

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MatchupOverUnder
Guardians 20-10	N/A	N/A
Red Sox 18-13	N/A	N/A

CLE @ BOS

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday

Matchup Contrasts

Today's Starting Pitchers

Keys to the Game

Guardians

Public

Red Sox

Bets%

Money%

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Guardians Injuries

Shane Bieber

Angel Martinez

Gavin Williams

Red Sox Injuries

Trevor Story

Lucas Giolito

Nick Pivetta

Rafael Devers

Triston Casas

Garrett Whitlock

Brayan Bello

Vaughn Grissom

Romy Gonzalez

Guardians vs. Red Sox Team Totals