Rays vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 13, 2025

Shane Baz owns the Jays – 2-0 lifetime, 2.12 ERA vs TOR. Berríos struggles vs Rays – 4.52 ERA in 13 starts. Baz’s xwOBA sits at .300 vs Berríos’ .350 – better contact quality. Rays lineup familiar with Berríos' sequencing. Mental edge + matchup edge both lean Tampa. Rays hot on the road – won 7 of last 8 away. Won 6 of last 8 in Toronto – comfort at Rogers Centre matters. Jays offense surging, but due to regress – 29 runs in last 4, but injuries piling up. Santander, Kirk banged up. Varsho recovering. Regression spot vs Baz dominance. Rays lineup due – went 3-for-24 w/ RISP last series, unsustainable for this talent. Berríos hittable, underwhelming vs TB. Rays bullpen stronger recently – 3.22 ERA vs Jays’ 4.03.

Mostly just an off line at Caesars , don't go past the -125 at FD

Strikeout rate has been up since the second half of 2024 with a potential shift in how he's throwing his changeup (velocity is increased on that pitch). Has gotten to eight-plus strikeouts in consecutive starts. Now that he's at home in a plus matchup, I have Berrios projected for 6.33 strikeouts.