Twins vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2023

Twins at Reds

4:35 pm • MLB Network

Minnesota Twins

36-36

5 - 3

Cincinnati Reds

38-35

pitcher		team	era	w-l
H.Greene			4.82	4-7
B.Ober			3.43	8-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 36-36	+1.5-192	o8.5-120	+114
Reds 38-35	-1.5+160	u8.5-105	-135

Wednesday 4:35 p.m.

September 20, 2023

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

B.Ober o14.5 Outs-168

0.6u

CIN -125

1.88u

CIN -1.5+161

0.5u

CIN -1.5+160

0.75u

Godamnit Biev

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Sep 20, 2023 UTC

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The Reds are just 22-9 (.710) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

Elly De La Cruz has struck out in 34% of PA's this season -- 10th highest among hitters with at least 225 total PA's-- second Percentile. Jhoan Duran has a strikeout rate of 33% this season -- tied for 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Carlos Correa is slugging just .259 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- fifth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. 99% of Hunter Greene fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (166/477) of left-handed batters he faced since last season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (84 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .584 -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 19-19 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 14 of Reds' 34 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	38-34	19-15	19-19	14-16	24-17
Twins	40-32	20-12	20-20	26-21	14-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	32-38-2	14-19-1	18-19-1	8-20-2	23-18
Twins	29-39-4	13-18-1	16-21-3	21-24-2	8-15-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	38-35	18-16	19-19	15-15	22-19
Twins	36-36	20-12	16-24	26-21	10-15

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 19th	MIN	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 9.5	MIN +105
Sep 18th	MIN	W 7-3	+1.5 W	O 9.5	CIN +130
Sep 17th	@NYM	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 9	NYM +115
Sep 16th	@NYM	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN -104
Sep 15th	@NYM	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	CIN -105

Royce Lewis
3B
Lewis is out with hamstring
Out

Noelvi Marte
3B
Marte is day-to-day with side
Day-to-Day
Brandon Williamson
SP
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Graham Ashcraft
RP
Ashcraft is out with groin
Out
Julian Aguiar
SP
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
SP
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
RP
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Ober, P	97	5	3	2
RJ.Winder, P	29	2	2	1
RJ.Duran, P	21	1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, DH	1-4	0	0	1
1M.Wallner, PR	0-0	0	0	0
1M.Wallner, DH	0-0	0	0	0
1R.Jeffers, PH	0-0	0	0	0
1R.Jeffers, DH	0-0	0	0	0
2J.Polanco, 2B	1-5	0	0	2
3D.Solano, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
4M.Kepler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5W.Castro, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
6K.Farmer, SS	1-4	1	0	1
7A. Stevenson, LF	1-3	0	0	0
7A. Stevenson, CF	1-3	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	2-3	2	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Larnach, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9T.Larnach, LF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	92	7	14	1
RI.Gibaut, P	16	1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	15	0.1	0	3
LS.Moll, P	14	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
2T.Friedl, CF	1-5	0	0	1
3S.Steer, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Fraley, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Encarnacion-Strand, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
5N.Senzel, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6J. Votto, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6S.Fairchild, LF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Marte, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8W.Benson, RF	1-3	2	0	0
9L.Maile, C	1-3	0	0	1
9N.Martini, PH	0-0	0	0	0