MLB Expert Picks, Future Bets: Odds for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year
Photo illustration by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Cristian Javier, Anthony Volpe and Juan Soto.
- Sean Zerillo has scoured the MLB awards markets for 2023 and has his picks.
- Zerillo has bets on MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in both leagues.
- Check out Zerillo's bets and breakdowns for all three awards below.
In addition to MLB win totals, divisional odds, World Series odds, and player props, I also bet on player awards — including Most Value Player, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year — before any MLB season.
If you missed Part I, my team futures Mega Guide, or Part II, my player prop predictions, you can see the remainder of my futures card for the 2023 MLB season.
It's worth noting that your risk profile for player awards should fall somewhere between the risk allocation for those two articles.
For example, I have placed 21 team futures for the 2023 season (World Series, divisional bets, or win total wagers) and have risked about 0.55 units per team future.
Conversely, I have provided 41 stat leaders bets over eight categories but only risked around 0.1 units per wager in those markets.
For my player awards bets below, I wagered 3.1 units across 27 wagers (0.12. units per awards future.)
Below, I'll provide my projected leaderboards for all awards categories and tell you where I'm placing my money for 2022.
Rookie of the Year
In 2011, a pair of pitchers (Jeremy Hellickson and Craig Kimbrel) swept the Rookie of the Year honors for the first time in 30 years (Dave Righetti and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981).
However, 18 of the past 22 winners (82%) accumulated more playing time on offense (including Shohei Ohtani, 2018), so I lean toward position players in this market, all else being relatively equal.
Moreover, Wins Above Replacement, or "WAR" ranking, has become increasingly crucial to award voters in the past decade.
Sixteen of the past 22 Rookie of the Year winners (73%) finished atop the rookies in their league in WAR, with an average rank of 1.5 among the 22 awards recipients. And that includes a pandemic-shortened 2019 season, where Devin Williams (sixth) and Kyle Lewis (second) claimed honors.
Here are my projected WAR leaders among rookies for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
American League
We might as well begin by discussing the biggest spring riser — Anthony Volpe (the No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) — who I bet and entered into the Action App at +2500 on February 23rd. When I ran early projections, Volpe was the only player who stacked up with presumptive favorite Gunnar Henderson (No. 1 prospect) based on average WAR as a component of playing time.
In late February, I only had Volpe slated for 250 plate appearances but was willing to speculate on his talent level (represented by the matching average WAR projection). After a strong spring, I now project Volpe for closer to 560 plate appearances, with the opportunity for even more depending upon his lineup spot, health and performance.
For context, three different projection systems have updated their numbers since Volpe won a roster spot; all have him projected between 3.0 and 3.5 WAR.
At this point, I would just about set Volpe as a co-favorite with Henderson, and considering the price differential, the Yankees' phenom is still my favorite bet in the AL, down to +500.
While pitchers typically don't win the award, there are a couple of potential studs in the 2023 class with Grayson Rodriguez (No. 7 prospect) and Hunter Brown (No. 43). Rodriguez will start the year in the minors after a shaky spring, while Brown is currently nursing a back injury. Still, both have the potential to emerge as frontline starters at the MLB level immediately.
The other players I'm interested in from an average production standpoint are both catchers — Logan O'Hoppe (No. 53 prospect) and Bo Naylor (No. 64 prospect).
As you'll see with the catchers on the MVP leaderboards, catchers generally rate very highly in WAR as a component of playing time. Still, with few exceptions, starting catchers rarely have a path to additional playing time beyond their initial projection, so there's not as much upside in their overall profile.
Naylor should get the call from Cleveland at some point this season, and if the race is still wide open by then, consider betting him to enter the mix.
O'Hoppe is worthy of a preseason wager. He technically owns a starting spot and could surpass playing time expectations (around 300 plate appearances), depending on various factors.
National League
Corbin Carroll (the No. 2 overall prospect) is a bit clearer of a favorite in the National League than Henderson is in the AL, despite the spring buzz surrounding Jordan Walker (No. 4 prospect), who I bet in late February on a scouting assumption, as opposed to a combination of scouting and projections (like Volpe).
While my projections for Walker have improved since the preseason (by about 150 plate appearances), his stats aren't in the territory to justify a wager as essentially a co-favorite with Carroll. Walker was my favorite rookie bet in the NL at +1000; however, I wouldn't play him below the best current price (+600 at bet365).
If you didn't speculate a month ago before spring training, you were already too late on Walker.
I potentially fired too early on top pitching prospect Andrew Painter (at +2500), but his number started to drop after one outing before his injury. Those are the risks we take betting players before spring training. I would avoid Painter since he's dealing with a UCL sprain, and the Phillies will be extremely cautious with his arm.
Other current NL targets include Ezequiel Tovar (No. 25 prospect), another 21-year-old starting shortstop like Volpe, who should get a boost to his offensive stat line at home; and a couple of Reds prospects, Spencer Steer and Elly de la Cruz (No. 10 prospect).
Steer has a path to full playing time as the Reds' everyday third baseman. The most optimistic projections put Steer at 2.6 WAR, which would put him in contention for the award.
De la Cruz will start the year in the minors, but he could see the majors by early summer, if not earlier. While you can wait for a better price on him, I'm comfortable with the current number. Upon his call-up, de la Cruz will immediately be among the most electric players in the major leagues. While he has similar physical gifts to Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz, he is more than three years younger. His upside is galactic.
The final player I would consider in the NL is Garrett Mitchell, who played well in a 28-game sample last season (136 wrC+) and should hold down an everyday outfield spot for the Brewers. In terms of prospect status, he pales compared to the other top contenders, but he is guaranteed a healthy amount of playing time (400+ plate appearances) with the opportunity for more.
Rookie of the Year Bets
- AL: Anthony Volpe (+700, 0.2u) at bet365
- AL: Hunter Brown (+1800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- AL: Grayson Rodriguez (+1300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- AL: Logan O'Hoppe (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Jordan Walker (+600, 0.15u) at bet365
- NL: Spencer Steer (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Ezequiel Tovar (+1200, 0.1u) at Caesars
- NL: Elly de la Cruz (+1600, 0.1u) at FanDuel
Most Valuable Player
Before breaking down the potential list of MVP candidates for 2023, let's talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.
Important
- Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP trophies (three in 33 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 14 of the 16 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions).
- OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player's ranking in batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001 except for Ichiro Suzuki has had an OPS greater than .850.
- WAR:Twenty-four of the past 26 MVP winners (92%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Seventeen winners (65%) finished as the league leader in WAR.
Irrelevant
- Making History: There have been four "40-40" seasons in MLB history, and 23 "30-30" seasons in MLB history. Just three of those 27 (11.1%) players (Jose Canseco in 1988, Jimmy Rollins in 2007, and Mookie Betts in 2018) won the MVP award. Those 27 players finished 9.7, on average, in MVP voting. Similarly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely wouldn't have won the MVP last season, even if he had captured the Triple Crown.
- Making the Playoffs: Eleven of the past 46 MVP winners (24%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason in 2022, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting. While five of the six MVP finalists made the playoffs in 2023, it's become almost irrelevant to discussing which player is having the best season.
Inconclusive
- Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammate in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, ranked around 10th, on average. One pair of teammates finished one-two (Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds, 2001). Four additional pairs finished in the top three of the voting, including Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. Four MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the Top 10. Similarly, there are four instances where multiple teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning the award.
Here are my projected WAR leaders in each league for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
American League
Ohtani is the obvious favorite, and toward the end of last season, I suspected he would be closer to even money for AL MVP heading into 2023.
Mike Trout closed between +110 and +130 during the height of his AL reign. Ohtani still received first-place votes for MVP last season, even though Aaron Judge posted the best individual season for a position player since Barry Bonds retired.
Assuming Ohtani stays healthy, someone else must post a historic offensive season to get into the conversation. If you want to fire a single bullet at an Ohtani MVP future (+225 at Superbook), I won't fault you; he is likely a once-in-a-lifetime type of talent and in the midst of his prime.
That's not how I bet baseball futures, though. I would prefer to structure a portfolio in each category at reduced risk for longer odds. A two or three-week IL stint is enough to derail any season-long player future.
Sorting by average production as a component of playing time, Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez and Corey Seager are the only players who approach Judge in terms of average production. In terms of value, Seager is likely the best bet in the AL.
Considering any player expected to average below 0.2 WAR per 25 PA as a potential MVP candidate is difficult.
I bet Judge last year (0.25u at +2500) among a group of six AL hitters. At the time, he ranked third in my average WAR filter (0.24 per 25 PA); health was the only question.
I could make a similar case for Alvarez (0.25 WAR per 25 PA), who drastically underachieved last season (.427 wOBA,467 xwOBA) and may be unstoppable without the shift. I have multiple stat leader bets on Alvarez, and the MVP wager is the final piece of the puzzle. However, I only risked 0.75 units across all of his wagers, so if Alvarez does miss time, it has almost zero impact on my overall futures bottom line. And if he wins the Triple Crown, we stand to profit around 10 units.
No hitter has been harmed by the shift in recent years as much as Seager, whose long odds are far too enticing to pass up relative to his projection bucket.
I was more interested in Ramirez over the past couple of years at around +2500, as opposed to his current price (+1500).
And the odds for Rodriguez (+1000 at Superbook) are likely too short given his projections, but I firmly believe J-Rod is bound for multiple MVP awards throughout his career, and I'll bet him blindly every year in this price range.
I'll speculate on two more young stars — and potential Hall of Fame talents — to outplay their projections: Wander Franco and Adley Rutschman.
If you liked Franco at +2200 last season (as I did), you should bet him at double the price after an injury-shortened sophomore campaign. Franco has insanely good plate discipline for a player his age and an elite hit tool for a shortstop.
Rutschman posted a 5.3-win season in 113 games as a rookie and has an extremely high floor as one of the top defensive catchers in the game. His bat making such an immediate impact (133 wRC+, 49 extra-base hits) was the biggest surprise. MVP-type catchers don't come around often (Joe Mauer in 2009, Buster Posey in 2012), but Rutschman may be an exception.
National League
I bet on Juan Soto to win the NL MVP before the pandemic-shortened 2020 season (at +1200), and before the 2021 season, I bet him at +850 and said that I would keep betting on Soto until he wins an MVP award.
Ultimately, I lied. Soto's odds dropped to +300 before last season, and I never pulled the trigger, but I'm back in for 2023 at a far more reasonable price point.
Aside from his teammate, Fernando Tatis Jr. — who is suspended for 20 games to start the season and, in my opinion, the worst player to bet in any market for 2023, and Dodgers catcher Will Smith — Soto laps the NL field in terms of production as a component of playing time.
Soto to win NL MVP is my favorite player awards bet; you can play him down to +400.
Overall, the NL MVP field is significantly weaker than the AL field. I could argue that seven of the best eight players in baseball all reside in the American League.
Aside from Soto, the most threatening competition comes from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts (both in the 0.21 tier) and Trea Turner (0.20), who is in a prime position to garner MVP consideration on the heels of his WBC publicity, with significant injuries to Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins giving him further opportunity to grow his star.
Generally, I prefer my future bets to correlate to one another, and I have a difficult time betting a Phillies player to win MVP, in contraction to my win total under. Still, you can make a decent case for Turner at +1200.
Smith caught my attention, too, given his price point. Smith has averaged 4.25 WAR over the past two seasons, but The Bat X projection calls for 5.7 WAR (with a 133 wRC+) in 2023, and if Smith cracks 30+ home runs, he'll undoubtedly enter the conversation on a new-look Dodgers squad.
Like Soto, I'll gladly bet Acuna in this price range every year until he secures some hardware.
Aside from the players I listed and Freddie Freeman, I would be relatively surprised by any other NL MVP; there is a reasonably significant drop-off beyond that group (all >0.20 WAR per 25 PA) in average production.
MVP Bets
- AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.2u) at Superbook
- AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1000, 0.15u) at Superbook
- AL: Wander Franco (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- AL: Adley Rutschman: (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- AL: Corey Seager (+5000, 0.05u) at bet365
- NL: Juan Soto (+550, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- NL: Mookie Betts (+950, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Will Smith (+15000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
Cy Young
Historically, four basic statistics correlate most strongly to Cy Young winners: Wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched).
However, there has been a clear upwards trend in recent seasons regarding WAR and Cy Young winners — which mirrors the trend between WAR and MVPs.
Until 2003, the Cy Young winner finished at least 1 WAR behind the pitching WAR leader (for that league) 48% of the time. Since 2004, that difference has only occurred six times (19%), a decrease of 29%.
Twelve of the past 14 Cy Young winners have finished in the top three in their respective leagues in pitching WAR — the only exceptions being Blake Snell (2018) and Robbie Ray (2021).
Here are my projected pitching WAR leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
American League
AL Cy Young is the most wide-open race of all the awards in 2023, and I Initially spread across eight pitchers before spring training, three of whom (Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino and Triston McKenzie) are already injured. I would avoid all three pitchers at this point.
From a projections standpoint, my favorite bet is Shohei Ohtani, who only ranks behind Jacob deGrom in average WAR contributions among all pitchers in baseball.
Since he's part of a six-man rotation, Ohtani won't generate more than 29 starts or 175 innings pitched – and any missed starts would cut into his win probability more significantly than it would for other pitchers – but Ohtani was a top-three starter last season (2.65 xERA) with increased emphasis on his breaking stuff. And given deGrom's injury concerns, Ohtani has a serious case for favoritism. And I much prefer his Cy Young odds to his MVP odds.
From a scouting standpoint, my favorite bet is Cristian Javier, who was arguably a better pitcher (2.43 xERA) than Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (2.66 xERA) last season, albeit in fewer innings and including relief stints.
From June 13th onward, Javier ranked second in strikeout rate and fourth in K-BB% among 58 qualified starters — and then he dominated in the postseason, too (12 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 16 K). Only his fastball and slider have proven to be above-average offerings; if Javier finds a third pitch (he throws a curveball or changeup around 12% of the time combined), he might turn into the best starter in the game.
I divide pitcher WAR by 10 IP because it presents a similar scale to position player WAR divided by 25 PA, and I generally look to select pitchers above 0.20 WAR per 10 IP as Cy Young candidates.
From the remaining AL pitchers, Kevin Gausman (0.22) and George Kirby (0.20) fill out my card. Gausman finished second behind Verlander in AL pitching WAR last season and projects in the top six by both average and overall production for 2023; Gausman has a very high floor.
Kirby offers substantial upside relative to his projected innings pitched (150). He's very efficient, and there's a universe where he logs closer to 190 innings this season. A four-win season would put Kirby in the conversation at long odds.
National League
Some interesting pitchers who missed the cut include Freddy Peralta (0.17) and Dustin May (0.17), both of whom offer All-Star upside, but neither of whom I expect to receive a Cy Young-caliber workload in 2023.
All but one of my NL Cy Young bets have decreased in price since I bet them a month ago.
Although I'm down on the Phillies' overall depth, they still have two of the best pitchers in the National League. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are seemingly underpriced relative to their WAR rankings as clear top-five starters in the NL.
Nola is my preferred bet for NL Cy Young. He offers a higher WAR projection and less injury risk than his teammate. However, his odds have dropped from +2000 to +1200 since I bet him. I would reduce my risk at that price.
Based on average production, Spencer Strider is the most efficient starter in the NL. I'll bet his Cy Young future defensively — Strider could run away with the award if he takes the ball six times per month.
The longshots who caught my attention are Reds teammates Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who are likely underrated, given their detrimental home ballpark and deteriorating organization.
Both pitchers put things together towards the end of last season (1.02 ERA, 2.63 xFIP for Greene; 2.48 ERA, 2.71 xFIP for Lodolo in their final six starts each), and one or both seem poised for ascension towards awards contention.
They have also dropped from +8000 and +7500 in the past month.
Lastly, I also bet on Logan Webb, whose average production (0.18) pales compared to his teammate Alex Cobb (0.20); and falls below my benchmark.
I've watched a lot of Webb's starts over the past two seasons, and I'm convinced he's better than his underlying metrics indicate. He prevents extra-base hits, generates a ton of groundballs (58.6% career) to kill rallies, and rarely allows the backbreaking three-run homer (0.60 HR/9). Webb is tough to barrel up (5.5%), and his skill set may be better suited to a playing environment with an increased number of balls in play.
That said, +3000 is far less enticing than the +4000 I locked in.
I've been fortunate with Cy Young bet, managing to hit Sandy Alcantara (+2500) last season and both Shane Bieber (+1600) and Trevor Bauer (+5000) during the shortened 2020 season.
We've presumably lost about a quarter of a unit on Cy Young bets to injuries before the 2023 season has started, but also still have roughly 0.9 units allocated across 10 pitchers who are currently healthy.
Rather than betting in a market that has already tightened relative to my reason projections, I would look to add awards bets during the season
Cy Young Bets
- AL: Shohei Ohtani (+1200, 0.15u) at Caesars
- AL: Cristian Javier (+2500, 0.15u) at bet365
- AL: Kevin Gausman (+2000, 0.1u) at bet365
- AL: George Kirby (+6000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- NL: Aaron Nola (+1300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL Zack Wheeler (+1800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Hunter Greene (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- NL: Nick Lodolo (+4000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- NL: Spencer Strider (+1000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Logan Webb (+3000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
Zerillo's 2023 Player Awards Futures
Cy Young
- AL: Shohei Ohtani (+1200, 0.15u) at Caesars
- AL: Cristian Javier (+2500, 0.15u) at bet365
- AL: Kevin Gausman (+2000, 0.1u) at bet365
- AL: George Kirby (+6000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- NL: Aaron Nola (+1300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL Zack Wheeler (+1800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Hunter Greene (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- NL: Nick Lodolo (+4000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- NL: Spencer Strider (+1000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Logan Webb (+3000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
Most Valuable Player
- AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.2u) at Superbook
- AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1000, 0.15u) at Superbook
- AL: Wander Franco (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- AL: Adley Rutschman: (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- AL: Corey Seager (+5000, 0.05u) at bet365
- NL: Juan Soto (+550, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- NL: Mookie Betts (+950, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Will Smith (+15000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
Rookie of the Year
- AL: Anthony Volpe (+700, 0.2u) at bet365
- AL: Hunter Brown (+1800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- AL: Grayson Rodriguez (+1300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- AL: Logan O'Hoppe (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Jordan Walker (+600, 0.15u) at bet365
- NL: Spencer Steer (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Ezequiel Tovar (+1200, 0.1u) at Caesars
- NL: Elly de la Cruz (+1600, 0.1u) at FanDuel
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