MLB Prop Picks: Expert Bets for Home Run Leader, More for 2023 Season
Photo Illustration by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Max Fried.
- Sean Zerillo has run his numbers and found his favorite stats to bet for the 2023 MLB season.
- Zerillo has picks for hitters and pitchers that range from 10-1 to 200-1.
- Check out Zerillo's full preseason betting card below.
In addition to MLB win totals, divisional odds, World Series odds and player awards futures, I also bet on statistical category leaders before each MLB season.
Generally, these markets encompass wins, strikeouts and saves for pitchers, home runs, runs scored, runs batted in, steals and hits for batters.
Additionally, player futures are all long shots relative to the odds for team futures. As a result, your risk profile should be significantly smaller.
For example, I have placed 21 World Series, divisional bets, or win total wagers for the 2023 season — and I have risked more than 11.5 units on those team futures (an average risk of 0.55 units per wager).
Conversely, I have provided 41 stat leader bets below but only risked around four units in total across those bets (an average risk of around 0.1 units per wager).
Below, I’ll provide my projections for these statistics, guide you through each category, and tell you where I’m placing my money for the 2023 season.
Also, check out Part I: my team futures article, and look out for Part III, my upcoming player awards futures piece, on Tuesday.
Most Wins
Here are my projected pitching wins leaders for the 2023 season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook — which typically has the best available odds for any player in this market:
In any stat leader market, I’m looking to identify players near the top of the projection leaderboard who aren’t correctly bucketed — on the odds board — relative to their projection peers.
For example, Max Fried (+2500) immediately stands out on the list above. I have him tied for the league lead with Gerrit Cole and project Fried for the most starts on the team with my highest projected win total.
Fried is my favorite bet in the wins market — and if you're searching for one prop in each category, I'll highlight my favorites.
The 14-win tier, with Shane Bieber, Framber Valdez, and Julio Urias, is either worth playing across the board or leaving alone entirely. Valdez moved from +2500 to +2000 since I bet him, but I would still play him there.
All four starters that I have mentioned rank low (each less than 12%) in Eno Sarris's injury probability model, in addition to ranking highly in my wins projections. The big difference between betting on Cole and Valdez at similar odds is injury risk (projected 70% for Cole).
In the 13-win tier, Logan Webb (100-1) is the apparent outlier and another safe bet for volume (11% injury probability). As you'll see in my awards article, I prefer Webb as a Cy Young bet rather than relying on him to approach 20 wins — or roughly 25% of his team's overall projection.
In the pitcher wins the market, I'm looking to target starters on teams with high projected win totals and elite bullpens; Webb has neither in his favor.
I could apply similar reasoning to Aaron Nola (50-1). I can't justify betting on a player to lead the league in wins when his own team's Win Total Under is one of my favorite preseason wagers. Otherwise, the price is right. Either way, you'll see Nola in my awards piece again.
The only player I'll sprinkle from the 13-wins tier is Cristian Javier — Houston's projected No. 2 starter — who should see a substantial volume increase this season and will repeatedly pop up in my future selections.
Most Wins Bets
- Shane Bieber (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Max Fried (+2500, 0.15u) at Superbook
- Cristian Javier (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Julio Urias (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Framber Valdez (+2000, 0.1u) at Superbook
Most Strikeouts
Here are my projected pitching strikeout leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at BetMGM:
Last season I only placed one strikeout leader bet (Dylan Cease). I projected 11 pitchers for 200+ strikeouts in 2022, but only two were listed at +2000 or higher on the board.
The betting landscape for strikeout leaders has changed for 2023. I have 14 pitchers projected for 200+ strikeouts, but six are +2000 or higher on the odds board, and four of those pitchers are +3000 or higher.
I included a more profound list in the graphic this season because it's interesting to show how Jacob deGrom and Sandy Alcantara can arrive at a similar projection. At the same time, deGrom should average nearly two additional strikeouts per projected start.
If deGrom exceeds playing time projections (24 starts), he could easily lead the league. And even though the price isn't super enticing at +1200, I would rather play deGrom than Cole at half the number.
Conversely, I wouldn't go near Carlos Rodon at this point, especially at his price. Rodon got injured since I bet him in the preseason, but his number is now grossly mispriced considering he will miss the first month of the season and seemingly has no path to leading any stat category. Awards consideration isn't out of the question, however.
Among the projected strikeout leaders, I prefer Nola, a workhorse with a low injury risk (13.4%) who ranks second behind Cole in total strikeouts since the start of the 2019 season. If the other projected leaders miss time — and all except for Corbin Burnes present a higher injury risk — Nola could grind his way ahead of the pack. He has a higher floor than anyone else.
My favorite speculative strikeout plays are Javier, Luis Castillo and Hunter Greene, each offering drastically superior odds compared to their projected contemporaries, all of whom improved in the second half of the 2022 season.
Typically, I try to limit my selections to about five or six bets per category. If I had gone deeper into the strikeout market, I'd look at Kevin Gausman and Brandon Woodruff. However, both pitchers saw a decreased workload per start last season relative to previous years.
There is a +7000 on Gausman at FanDuel. You could do worse at those odds.
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Shohei Ohtani (who operates in a six-man rotation) will struggle to surpass 30 starts in an entirely healthy season, otherwise he would be easier to justify at his price point.
I love Gausman and Ohtani, but I would rather bet both in the Cy Young market than the strikeout leader market (and I already have). We'll talk about both of them more in Part III of my MLB futures guide.
I don't necessarily have a favorite bet in this category, but I am partial to Greene and Javier at their prices.
Most Strikeouts Bets
- Luis Castillo (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Jacob deGrom (+1200, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Hunter Greene (+4000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Cristian Javier (+3500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Aaron Nola (+1500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
Most Saves
Here are my projected saves leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at bet365:
We might find some value in the saves market with the projected leader and favorite Edwin Diaz out for the season.
Similar to the pitcher wins market, I'm merely looking for players that are mispriced relative to their projection bucket, and three closers on potentially playoff-bound teams — Devin Williams, Clay Holmes, and Pete Fairbanks — seem mispriced.
Unfortunately, the odds for all three pitchers have decreased since I bet them (at +2000, +3300, and +8000, respectively). Still, based on their projections alone, they should be lined closer to +1500, +2000, and +5000, respectively — so there is still room to bet each.
While Williams is locked into a closer role, he's on the team projected for the fewest wins of the three.
Holmes is the head of a committee in the Bronx — since Aaron Boone won't always save his best reliever for the ninth inning. Still, I have the Yankees projected as the best team in the American League, and if Holmes does emerge as the full-time closer (2.41 xERA in 2022), he'll offer sensational value.
Fairbanks was my favorite bet a few weeks ago, but his velocity is down in spring training. Like Holmes, he is the head of a committee in Tampa Bay and the Rays don't necessarily save their closer for the final three outs.
Fairbanks was ridiculous in 24 innings last season (1.03 xERA) and arguably the best pitcher in baseball after returning from injury. His price is attractive considering his elite skillset. Still, he's never pitched more than 42 innings in an entire season — and may already be hurt again. Otherwise, I would have bet more at these odds.
Most Saves Bets
- Pete Fairbanks (+6600, 0.1u) at bet365
- Clay Holmes (+2800, 0.1u) at bet365
- Devin Williams (+1800, 0.1u) at PointsBet
Most Hits
Here are my projected total hits leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at DraftKings:
In the past five seasons, the hits leader finished with between 0.27 and 0.31 hits per plate appearance.
Note that this is a curated leaderboard — I left off the following players, all of whom projected for more than 150 hits but at 0.25 hits per plate appearance or fewer: Rafael Devers, Alec Bohn, Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez, Corey Seager, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, Alec Bohm, Bobby Witt Jr., Bryan Reynolds, Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Marcus Semien, Jose Abreu, Nolan Arenado and Pete Alonso.
Last season, I found Luis Arraez at long odds thanks to the hits per plate appearance qualifier (few players break the 0.27 hits per PA tier).
And I'll run Arraez back as my favorite hits leader bet for 2023. He only played in 144 games last season — both because he wasn't in the starting lineup to begin the year and also because he occasionally sat against lefties. The Marlins will attempt to play Arraez as often as possible and also hit him out of the leadoff spot (he occasionally hit third last season).
The projections are selling him short on playing time (around 138 games) and a 200-hit season is within reach, especially without the shift, because he doesn't strikeout (league-low 7.1%) and owns an average walk rate.
Like Arraez, longshots Jeff McNeil, Nico Hoerner or Luis Robert Jr. could cash if they exceed playing time projections (roughly 130-140 games each). Of the three, I prefer Hoerner, who put up a quiet four-win season as he continues to improve his bat-to-ball skills (fifth among qualified hitters in strikeout rate).
McNeil has better contact skills than Hoerner but hits too low in the lineup (5th), and the Mets have too much offensive depth not to occasionally platoon him against lefties.
I bet Bo Bichette at +1200 before his line moved, and I wouldn't play him below +1000. However, you can find matching prices for my other bets in this category.
Amed Rosario finished fifth in hits last season (180) and should continue to improve. He's a lock for everyday playing time and a top-two lineup spot, and I much prefer him to his teammates Kwan and Ramirez (both at 0.25 hits per PA) in the same category, given the production filter.
Most Hits Bets
- Luis Arraez (+2200, 0.15u) at bet365
- Bo Bichette (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Nico Hoerner (+6000, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- Jeff McNeil (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Luis Robert (+6600, 0.05u) at bet365
- Amed Rosario (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365
Most Runs Scored
Here are my projected runs scored leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Caesars:
The runs scored leader has averaged between 0.175 and 0.21 runs per plate appearance in the past five seasons.
Therefore, I would largely discount players listed in the lowest projection tier (0.14 runs per plate appearance). And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 89-94 runs scored) from the leaderboard: Paul Goldschmidt, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Kyle Tucker and Austin Riley.
Mookie Betts should be a co-favorite, and he's my favorite bet in this category at +900 or better.
Still, I don't mind the odds on his teammate, Freddie Freeman, either. Freeman ranks second in baseball in runs scored (495) since 2018. about 40 runs ahead of third place. Betts ranks first by a wide margin (521) over Freeman.
The odds for Julio Rodriguez have dropped since I bet him (at +2000); his current pricing (+1400) is more appropriate, but I'm inclined to bet J-Rod in any category where he has a realistic chance of winning. Runs scored is probably the likeliest considering his lineup spot.
Yordan Alvarez — who is likely priced appropriately given his projection — and Michael Harris II — who moved down from +7500 since I bet him — are my favorite longshots in this category.
Alvarez may threaten a quadruple or quintuple crown — for at least one season — based on his career trajectory.
Harris would move to the top spot in Atlanta's lineup — in the event of a Ronald Acuna Jr. injury — and if he were the expected Opening Day leadoff hitter for the Braves instead of a middle-of-the-order bat, his runs-scored projection would be closer to 100 than 90.
Most Runs Scored Bets
- Mookie Betts (+1100, 0.15u) at Caesars
- Freddie Freeman (+1800, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Julio Rodriguez (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Michael Harris (+6000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.1u) at Caesars
Most Runs Batted In
Here are my projected RBI leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Caesars:
The RBI leader has averaged between 0.18 and 0.22 RBIs per plate appearance in the past five seasons.
Therefore, I would largely discount players projected below 0.16 RBIs per plate appearance. And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 84-93 RBIs) from the leaderboard: Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Anthony Santander, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez and Christian Walker.
Yordan Alvarez is the only player projected for 0.17 RBI per plate appearance, and he's my favorite bet in this category.
I have to bet the players projected on either side of him at superior numbers too, although Jose Ramirez, Matt Olson and Manny Machado don't have much to gain from a playing time standpoint.
Conversely, Giancarlo Stanton is grossly mispriced compared to players in the 0.16 RBI per plate appearance tier. If Stanton manages to stay healthy for an entire season, it would be his first since 2018. But it would also come with massive counting stat upside, considering he's only projected to play around 125 games.
And I will add a bet on Kyle Schwarber, with him moving behind Trea Turner in the Phillies order into a more prominent RBI spot, instead of leading off like much of last season.
Most Runs Batted In Bets
- Yordan Alvarez (+1000, 0.2u) at BetMGM
- Jose Ramirez (+2000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Manny Machado (+2500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Matt Olson (+1600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kyle Schwarber (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Giancarlo Stanton (+5000, 0.05u) at BetMGM
Most Stolen Bases
Here are my projected stolen base, or SB leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
In the past five seasons, the stolen bases leader has averaged between .063 and 0.1 steals per plate appearance.
Therefore, I would largely discount players projected below 0.05 steals per plate appearance. And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 20-27 steals) from the leaderboard: Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Michael Harris, Kyle Tucker, Nico Hoerner, Corbin Carroll, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Harrison Bader, Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Adolis Garcia, and Marcus Semien.
Perhaps leaving Rodriguez off is in error (since I expect a 40-40 season from him at some point) but I do have a theory — Julio's power is going to become so potent (more on that later) that he may not be on first base often enough to steal 30+ bags.
Bubba Thompson is my favorite bet in the steals market. He's projected to bat ninth and play center field for Texas on Opening Day. Between Triple-A and the majors, Thompson stole 67 bags on 70 attempts and averaged .099 steals per MLB plate appearance. Thompson will rank among the league leaders with full playing time.
I'm not as keen on Dylan Moore (.082 steals per PA in 2022) since he is injured to begin the season, but the playing time upside is similar to Thompson, and the price is better.
Berti — the 2022 steals leader — ranks as highly as anyone on an efficiency basis; I'm just skeptical that he'll receive 400 plate appearances again.
A partial hedge to Berti is a bet on his teammate, Jazz Chisholm, staying healthy. Derek Carty's "Bat X" projections like Chisholm for 36 steals this season, which would rank third in baseball. Chisholm has only averaged .045 steals per PA for his MLB career, but he's one of the fastest regulars in the game and stands to benefit from the new ruleset as much as anyone.
I'll finalize this category with a bet on Jake McCarthy, whose seen his steals per PA average quickly settle at .061 at the MLB level, which is at the lower end of where season-long leaders have finished. McCarthy ranks in the 99th percentile for sprint speed and projects as Arizona's Opening Day No. 3 hitter. He's a considerably better base stealer than Corbin Carroll and potentially Arizona's best fantasy baseball asset.
Most Stolen Bases Bets
- Jon Berti (+2000, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Jazz Chisholm (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Jake McCarthy (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Dylan Moore (+8000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Bubba Thompson (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365
Most Home Runs
Here are my projected home run leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook, which generally has the best odds for the HR Leader market:
In the past five seasons, the home run leader has averaged between .07 and .09 home runs per plate appearance.
Therefore, I would largely discount the players projected below .05 home runs plate appearance. And as a result, I cut my list to players projected to hit 29 home runs or more. Starting at 28 home runs, you get into players (Ronald Acuna Jr., Willy Adames, Corey Seager) who I slot at .04 home runs per plate appearance.
Some bats in the .05 range (including Eugenio Suarez, Anthony Santander, Max Muncy, Salvador Perez, etc.) are still projected for 25+ round-trippers, but aside from Perez, I can't justify betting any of them based on the rate stat.
I only show two players — Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez — in the top tier (.07 home runs per PA). Like RBI leader, Alvarez is my favorite bet for HR leader, too; you can bet him down to +1000. And you'll see him pop up in my Awards piece too.
Among the players in the .06 tier, Byron Buxton and Giancarlo Stanton are the obvious injury candidates with massive upside
I tried to bet Buxton in several of these categories (HR Leader, Runs Leader, MVP) last season, and the Twins will try to use him at DH as often as possible this year. He has averaged .073 HR per PA over the past two seasons — enough to qualify for consideration as the category leader. Still, he's also one of the most injury-prone stars in the game, and he gets hurt running the bases far too often to justify his DH usage as a potential difference-maker in playing an entire season.
I could say similar things about Stanton, but at least he has played in 76% of his team's games over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, his skills may be eroding (.062 HR per PA), but that primarily comes down to contact. Stanton continues to post the highest exit velocity marks in the game and could legitimately hit .200 with 50 home runs and lead the league with a bit of variance.
Olson is an easy bet as a mispricing relative to his projected peers, and a player I expect to take a big step forward in his second year in Atlanta.
Julio Rodriguez and Juan Soto are far more speculative bets. Each year there are players in the +5000 range who catch my eye (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2020) whose projections don't necessarily align with their immense talent and upside.
Soto won the 2022 Home Run Derby and improved his flyball rate by eight percent last season. He may feel freer to pull the ball without the shift, and I still expect him to evolve at some point into more of a late-career Barry Bonds type, selling out for power unless he can force pitchers to walk him. Soto is likely to grow into his peak game power and post a 40+ home run season in his mid-20s if he decides to swing just a bit more, and I'm willing to speculate at +5000 until it happens.
Rodriguez ranked in the 99th percentile for max exit velocity in his rookie season, the most immediate predictor of future power. J-Rod may become the fifth member of the 40-40 club (Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano) sometime in the next few seasons. Rodriguez and Acuna (41 HR, 37 SB in 2019) are the likeliest candidates among current players. Yet Rodriguez is closer to +1200 in the steals market. His power is underrated compared to his speed — he is elite in both areas.
The last player I want to mention is Cal Raleigh, who is as high as 200-1 at some books, and as low as +4000 at Superbook, which generally has the best available odds in the HR leader market across the board.
Anytime a player is much shorter at the Superbook for HR leader than they are anywhere else, it will grab my attention. I projected Raleigh for 23 home runs (.05 per PA), but it's worth noting that he was injured last season during a strong rookie campaign (and still averaged .065 HR/PA) and may garner plate appearances as a DH this year.
If I could add two more HR leader bets, I would have included Rafael Devers and Kyle Tucker, given the odds; but I try not to go more than six deep in any category.
Most Home Runs Bets
- Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Julio Rodriguez (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Matt Olson (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Cal Raleigh (+20000, 0.02u) at Caesars
- Juan Soto (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Giancarlo Stanton (+4000, 0.05u) at Superbook
Zerillo’s 2023 MLB Player Prop Futures
Most Hits
- Luis Arraez (+2200, 0.15u) at bet365
- Bo Bichette (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Nico Hoerner (+6000, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- Jeff McNeil (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Luis Robert (+6600, 0.05u) at bet365
- Amed Rosario (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365
Most Home Runs
- Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Julio Rodriguez (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Matt Olson (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Cal Raleigh (+20000, 0.02u) at Caesars
- Juan Soto (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Giancarlo Stanton (+4000, 0.05u) at Superbook
Most Runs Batted In
- Yordan Alvarez (+1000, 0.2u) at BetMGM
- Jose Ramirez (+2000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Manny Machado (+2500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Matt Olson (+1600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kyle Schwarber (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Giancarlo Stanton (+5000, 0.05u) at BetMGM
Most Runs Scored
- Mookie Betts (+1100, 0.15u) at Caesars
- Freddie Freeman (+1800, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Julio Rodriguez (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Michael Harris (+6000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.1u) at Caesars
Most Saves
- Pete Fairbanks (+6600, 0.1u) at bet365
- Clay Holmes (+2800, 0.1u) at bet365
- Devin Williams (+1800, 0.1u) at PointsBet
Most Stolen Bases
- Jon Berti (+2000, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Jazz Chisholm (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Jake McCarthy (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Dylan Moore (+8000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Bubba Thompson (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365
Most Strikeouts
- Luis Castillo (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Jacob deGrom (+1200, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Hunter Greene (+4000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Cristian Javier (+3500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Aaron Nola (+1500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
Most Wins
- Shane Bieber (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Max Fried (+2500, 0.15u) at Superbook
- Cristian Javier (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Julio Urias (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Framber Valdez (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
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