Eight sluggers face off as they gun for the crown of this year’s ultimate home run hitter in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Derby will be broadcast live at 8 p.m. ET on Netflix.
There are a number of ways you can bet on the Home Run Derby on Monday: outright winner, head-to-head matchups, distance of the longest home runs, exit velocity, total home runs, and much more.
Action Network's MLB staff is all over this from a betting perspective. Read on for our five Home Run Derby best bets, predictions, and picks below.
2026 MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
For more MLB Home Derby predictions, check out Sean Zerillo's Derby preview, which includes player breakdowns and picks for the outright winner, league winner, the final four, finalists, and more.
2026 MLB Home Run Derby Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | +310 |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | +370 |
| Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) | +500 |
| Jordan Walker (Cardinals) | +600 |
| Jac Caglianone (Royals) | +600 |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | +800 |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | +1000 |
| Willson Contreras (Red Sox) | +1700 |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Junior Caminero HR Derby Winer
By Sean Zerillo
Here is the model I built for this year's Home Run Derby.
Caminero is the model's dream profile: tops in the field in max EV (116.9), bat speed (79.9 mph, hardest swinger in MLB), blast rate, max distance (463 ft = tiebreak insurance), and he's been to a derby final (2025 runner-up).
He checks every box my backtest validated.
Pick: Junior Caminero HR Derby Winner (+380, FanDuel)
Junior Caminero HR Derby Winer
By Tony Sartori
Bet the Home Run Derby responsibly, as it truly is a dart throw.
That said, there are a few reasons to like Junior Caminero.
First, he now has experience under his belt.
Caminero made his Derby debut last year and thrived, finishing runner-up to Cal Raleigh and demonstrating he can go deep in this competition.
Second, Caminero is an even stronger hitter this year than he was in 2025.
Entering the break, Caminero ranks in the 90th percentile among qualified hitters in xSLG, the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, the 85th percentile in barrel rate, and the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate.
It’s also worth noting that Caminero has the fastest bat speed among MLB hitters.
Pick: Junior Caminero HR Derby Winner (+380, FanDuel)
Junior Caminero HR Derby Winer
By Ryan Minion
While Philly slugger Kyle Schwarber enters the Derby as the consensus betting favorite, I have my eye on the man with the second-shortest odds.
I like Tampa superstar Junior Caminero, who was the runner-up to Cal Raleigh last season.
Tampa’s slugger is the hottest hitter in baseball after whacking 13 homers over his past 17 games.
Given Junior’s form entering the event and his runner-up finish in 2025, I think this is a phenomenal price for him to reign supreme in 2026.
Pick: Junior Caminero HR Derby Winner (+380, FanDuel)
Jac Caglianone HR Derby Winer
By Matt Trollo
Citizens Bank Park is the most power-friendly environment in baseball for left-handed batters, allowing home runs at a rate 32% higher than the league average — that’s seven points higher than the next most power-friendly park (Houston).
There’s a significant difference in how the park plays for right-handed hitters, where it allows homers at a rate 1% below average. While that doesn’t automatically disqualify right-handed batters from our handicap, it creates a big barrier to entry.
The weather report calls for a solid evening in Philadelphia on Monday night, with temperatures in the upper-70s and a near-10-MPH wind blowing out toward right-center field, which gives Southpaws in the competition an additional boost.
The new format for the Derby, switching to a set number of swings, makes it less of an endurance contest, which had penalized older players. This year, that means Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Willson Contreras, which may lead them to pace themselves throughout the process.
Only three of the eight hitters in the competition are right-handed. While Contreras and Jordan Walker are threats, Junior Caminero is likely the class of the field from that side. But with the handicaps against him, it seems aggressive to call him a top-three candidate in the betting markets, even if he has the fastest average bat speed in baseball.
Jac Caglianone has the highest average bat speed from the left side (77.3 MPH), though Schwarber isn’t far behind (77.1 MPH). Contreras (77.0 MPH) rounds out the top 10 in baseball, with no other contestant among the top 20.
Schwarber does lead the league in pulled fly-ball rate (34.6%), making him a legitimate favorite. Contreras at 26.2% is the next-highest, ranking 34th among the 314 players with at least 100 batted-ball events.
Among hitters with at least 10 home runs, Caglianone has the fourth-highest no-doubter home-run rate (73.3%), with Munetaka Murakami (65%) the only other Derby contestant in the top 10.
With the highest average exit velocity (108 MPH) and the longest average distance on home runs (414 feet) among this group, Caglianone offers a reasonable price to win this thing.
I’d play him at +500 or better.
Pick: Jac Caglianone HR Derby Winner (+750, FanDuel)
Ben Rice HR Derby Winer
There are plenty of reasons to like Ben Rice in the 2026 Home Run Derby, aside from just the excitement of chasing one of the tournament’s biggest underdogs.
For starters, Rice enters the All-Star break as one of the hottest hitters in the entire league — he’s running a .489 ISO with seven homers over the past two weeks. And despite slumping through much of June, Rice has the highest season-long ISO (.320) of all Derby contestants.
Among the group, Rice (15.3%) only trails Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber in barrel rate, and his average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) is within striking distance of the league’s elite hitters.
Furthermore, Citizens Bank Park is widely considered to be the best venue in baseball for left-handed power, giving Rice an added advantage heading into Monday’s competition.
The 27-year-old lefty slugger has a 48.4% pull rate this season, which is right behind Schwarber and Willson Contreras as the highest marks in this group. He’s launched the majority of his home runs to right field.
If Rice can make a living launching dingers into the right-field short porch at Yankee Stadium, he should be able to have similar success in Philly.
With his father Dan pitching to him, and plenty of positive momentum carrying over from the last couple of weeks, Rice could be in line to have an excellent Home Run Derby debut.
Pick: Ben Rice HR Derby Winner (+950, FanDuel)
Ben Rice HR Derby Winer
It makes sense that Kyle Schwarber is the favorite for this year’s Home Run Derby. Among the Derby participants, he ranks second in barrel rate (19.6%) and first in home runs. Not only is this his third Derby appearance, but he also went a perfect 3-for-3 in last year’s All-Star Game swing-off tiebreaker.
That said, I think there’s value on another hard-swinging lefty who’s priced second-to-last in the field: Ben Rice.
Among Derby participants, Rice ranks third in barrel rate (15%) and second in launch angle sweet-spot rate (39.4%). The power is undeniable, and his odds are too long for me to pass up.
The new format also plays into his strengths.
With the first round now scored solely on 20 swings rather than a race against the clock, there’s more room for variation. Sluggers with elite raw power don’t have to rush — they can take their time, square up the ball, and let their strength do the work.
Citizens Bank Park is also one of the friendliest parks for left-handed power, giving Rice another edge.
The familiarity of Rice’s dad throwing him the ball also doesn’t hurt.
Could the moment be too big in his first Derby, leading to a performance similar to James Wood’s last year? Absolutely.
Everyone is understandably focused on Schwarber and the human highlight reel, Junior Caminero. But at these odds, Rice is the bet I’ll gladly take.
