AL Cy Young Bets to Make Following Tyler Glasnow’s Injury
Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Entering Monday, Tyler Glasnow was one of the betting favorites to win AL Cy Young as he led the Tampa Bay Rays to the top of the AL East.
By Tuesday night, Glasnow’s status for the rest of the season was in doubt and any chance at being named the best pitcher in the league was gone.
The Rays announced Glasnow suffered a partially torn UCL and flexor strain in his Monday start against the White Sox when the right-hander exited early. His status is uncertain, but he’ll attempt to rehab his arm before deciding on Tommy John surgery.
Prior to the injury, Glasnow trailed just Gerrit Cole on the oddsboard and was tied with Shane Bieber at +600 at PointsBet. At time of publish, that number hadn’t changed.
However, it’s unlikely Glasnow will have the innings or performance to win the award now. Two of our staff members took a look at the odds to see where it’s best to pivot with one of the favorites losing ground.
AL Cy Young Picks Following Glasnow’s Injury
Of course I get excited to see Tyler Glasnow pitch against my favorite team and he gets hurt. Welcome to Chicago!
I really like getting Carlos Rodon at +1200 on PointsBet. He is +800 on DraftKings and has pitched as well as Gerrit Cole, actual or expected stats included. Rodon’s actual ERA is better than Cole’s and his Expected ERA is higher by 0.14. The White Sox and Yankees have dealt with a myriad of injuries, but it is the White Sox navigating it better considering the quality of players injured.
There is also Rodon’s narrative of being the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter within two years of having Tommy John surgery, and he flirted with a second in June. He has an argument to start the All-Star Game in July and if he does, that number disappears.
I do not know how much shine Rodon will get with Lance Lynn pitching well in the same rotation, but Rodon’s dominance at twice the price of Shane Bieber and 12 times higher than Cole is worth betting.
A lot can happen with 60 percent of the season remaining, and that is what can make betting on the AL Cy Young tricky.
Betting on player futures as opposed to team futures is difficult because you are also betting on the MLB writers who vote on the award, not just on the player’s performance. Additionally, the sportsbooks have a larger theoretical hold on multi-way futures than they do for single-game bets.
Despite the difficulties in winning long term on CY Young Award futures, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber do not rank in the top five for AL Cy Young votes. The issue with Cole is that he is a -140 favorite (58.3% probability) at BetMGM when a lot can happen between now and October. Cole could pitch a few bad games and inflate his ERA, get injured like Glansow, a random player can go on a hot streak, or something non-baseball related could happen.
Shane Bieber is a better front-runner pick at +1000 on FanDuel as he won the award in 2020, and he has continued to pitch at an elite level. Bieber may play for a marginal playoff contender in the Cleveland Indians, but he has a 7-4 record with a 3.28 ERA, and a 2.84 xFIP. If he has a few random complete game shutouts between now and October, then he could easily close the season at a shorter price than +1000, assuming his current shoulder injury doesn’t sideline him too long.
In addition to blue-chip starting pitchers like Bieber, occasionally reliable veterans who are not the best pitchers in the league win the award. Since his lackluster 2019 season, Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the more reliable Red Sox starting pitchers. After 14 starts, Eovaldi has a 7-3 record with a 3.76 ERA, and a 3.69 xFIP. He also has a 2.4 WAR which is fourth-best among American League pitchers. That is why I am taking a flier on Eovaldi at +7000 (1.4% implied probability) to win the AL Cy Young.