MLB Odds, Picks: Angels vs Cardinals Prediction Today
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Renfroe (Angels)
- Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound as his Angels take on the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas in St. Louis.
- L.A. seems to be the square pick in this matchup, but it holds multiple advantages that show it's strong value at -135.
- Nick Martin explains more in a full betting preview below.
Angels vs. Cardinals Odds
-115 / -105
-115 / -105
Shohei Ohtani will look to continue his phenomenal campaign with a victory on Wednesday over the scuffling Cardinals. Ohtani is priced at -110 to win the AL MVP and has been dominant at the plate on top of pitching to a 1.85 ERA in 34 innings.
More importantly than that, the Angels are actually winning ball games right now and enter one game back of the final AL wild card berth.
The Cardinals entered the year as favorites to win the NL Central, but have lost four straight games and now own a mark of just 10-20.
That’s the kind of underachievement Angels fans have come to expect, but not something that Cardinals fans are accustomed to seeing.
Los Angeles is priced at -135 to hand the Cardinals a fifth straight loss Wednesday.
Based upon a solid 16-14 start, it seems entirely possible that the Angels could sneak back into the postseason this year.
As always, they could certainly have a few more wins without ugly late game blowups, but there are lots of positives to focus on.
The Angels have generated 5.1 runs per game this season and have hit to a 10th-best wRC+ of 107 in their opening 30 matchups.
Considering the talent on their roster, we should expect that to continue, and especially so if Hunter Renfroe can keep hitting at the level we’ve seen so far.
Ohtani has been incredible on the mound and should make life tough for the Cardinals’ ice cold offense. Ohtani’s Stuff+ is second in the league among qualified starters entering this matchup.
His xERA of 2.81 is still nearly a full run higher than his actual mark of 1.85. Even still, that puts him in the 86th percentile of all pitchers.
With how his stuff is actually rating, we should see his expected marks come down in time.
Miles Mikolas was far less dominant during the back half of last season, pitching to a 4.39 ERA post-All-Star break.
He has followed that up with a very poor start to the 2023 campaign.
Mikolas has pitched to an alarming 6.58 xERA in what’s now a reasonably large five start sample.
Traditionally, Mikolas has hidden his poor strikeout rates with a lot of ground balls, but that strength has regressed this season into hard contact.
Batters are whiffing less than ever, and that makes sense given how Mikolas’ stuff is rating compared to other supposedly elite pitchers. He seems more like a pitcher who overachieved early on last season as opposed to one who’s just having a slow start to this campaign.
Offensively, the talent on the Cardinals’ roster should lead to better results than we’ve seen the last few weeks — especially if Nolan Arenado is able to play anywhere near the level we saw in 2022.
St. Louis has hit to a wRC+ of 102 against right-handed pitching and will be in its worse split on Wednesday.
Angels vs. Cardinals Betting Pick
Los Angeles is reportedly taking on all of the money, all of the bets and is clearly the square take looking at this matchup.
However, it’s very hard to find the arguments against Los Angeles at a price of -135.
Offensively, the Angels are trending into far better form, and I continue to believe they’ll prove to be a top third club this season on that front when at full health.
There might be some days ahead where the Angels are overvalued when Shohei is on the mound.
The key reason I don’t believe that’s the case today is that Mikolas has been awful to start the campaign, and the gap between the two is underrated at these prices.
Backing Los Angeles at -135 to win this game holds some strong value.
Los Angeles is also priced at -120 to cover the first seven innings (-0.5), which could be another way of attacking this, as we love avoiding those final two innings of Angels games.
Pick: Angels ML -135
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