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Angels vs. Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Thursday’s Over/Under (May 5)

Angels vs. Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Thursday’s Over/Under (May 5) article feature image
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Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani.

  • Thursday's MLB slate kicks off with what should be a fun matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels.
  • The Angels will send Shohei Ohtani to the mound while the Red Sox will counter with Rich Hill.
  • MLB betting analyst DJ James breaks down the game below and shares his top pick.

Angels vs. Red Sox Odds

Angels Odds -160
Red Sox Odds +140
Over/Under 9 (-105 / -115)
Time 1:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Rich Hill and the Boston Red Sox will host Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels for the finale of a three-game set.

Ohtani had some early struggles, particularly in his second outing, but every other appearance has been sharp. His xERA sits at 2.63 compared to a 4.19 ERA, so some positive regression is in the cards for him.

Hill has had a pretty successful early going, as well. He owns a 3.71 ERA and 3.70 xERA. This is very solid for a 42-year-old, especially considering he’s gone for four innings or more in each outing.

He will not go much more, however, but the Boston bullpen has some pieces who can fill in after he exits.

This is an underrated pitching matchup, and if the pitching staffs can do what they’ve done recently, the under should hit.


Ohtani Set to Lead Los Angeles

Ohtani is as impressive as they come. He has a 37.5% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. This is impeccable.

Boston may rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to strikeout percentage, but it walks at just a 7.8% clip. Don’t expect many free passes in the early part of the game.

Boston also ranks as the worst team in chase rate at 32.4%. Ohtani will get opponents to whiff often, so this should play into his hands.

In addition, Boston has been one of the weakest teams in the MLB when facing righties this season. Surely, this will improve, but an 82 wRC+ is something of concern for the Red Sox going forward.

The Angels’ bullpen has not shown much lately, but it still owns a collective 3.80 ERA. Outside of Kenny Rosenberg and Aaron Loup, there are no other southpaws out of the ‘pen. This should provide Los Angeles with another pitching advantage.

Loup is one of the most valuable bullpen arms for the Angels, too. He can mow them down as a setup man with the best of them.

Like the BoSox, the Angels will hold their opponent in check with the plethora of righties they can throw at them when Ohtani is done pitching.

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What Will Red Sox Get From Hill?

Now, Hill’s hands will be a bit fuller. The Angels own a 122 wRC+ against lefties this season and have just a 23.1% chase rate — good for the second-best mark in the majors.

That said, in four outings, Hill has allowed only two home runs. He ranks in the top half of the league in both exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.

This should be encouraging against some of the sluggers in that Angels lineup, as only four hitters have hit above the 90 MPH average exit velocity mark against southpaws.

Since Hill’s fastball ranks amongst the slowest and he throws his patented curveball around 71 MPH, the Angels will not hit the ball too hard. The Green Monster will always do favors for a Boston pitcher at home, as well.

The Red Sox have some options to throw at the Angels out of the ‘pen once Hill leaves after about four innings of work. Since he has pitched only around four innings in each game, it’s a safe assumption he won’t make it much farther.

Garrett Whitlock has been a core piece of the bullpen and has even been used on the back of Hill. Otherwise, the Sox will piece together an efficient outing with the middle relief corps.

This is the main concern for this game. Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman have struggled so far this season, so the under needs a decent outing from them.

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Angels-Red Sox Pick

Hill has been solid this season and extremely consistent. He should be able to keep the ball in the yard for the Angels. Once he does that, the Boston bullpen needs to keep it together.

This is where Ohtani comes into play. Expect an exceptional outing from him. He strikes out batters with the best of them, Boston chases far too much and has simply not hit righties that well.

The Angels have a few more back-end pieces that have found some recent success. Take the under at 9 (-115), and play it to 8.5 (-110).

Pick: Under 9 (Play to 8.5 at -110)

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