Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, July 21.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- San Francisco Giants Moneyline -110 (Bet365, Play to -115)
- Reds vs Mariners Under 7.5 Runs -104 (FanDuel, Play to -114)
Giants vs Royals Picks
It's far from the most exciting matchup on Tuesday's slate, but there looks to be a little value in backing the Giants to snap their three-game losing skid with Tyler Mahle facing off against Luinder Avila.
San Francisco has quietly held a meaningful edge over Kansas City against right-handed pitching this season. The Giants own a 103 wRC+ versus righties overall and have been even better since May 1 with a 112 wRC+. The Royals, meanwhile, have managed just a 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching both on the season and since May 1st.
San Francisco typically enters games started by Mahle (5.31 ERA in 78 innings) at a pitching disadvantage, but that isn't necessarily the case here. Avila has posted similarly poor surface-level results (5.08 ERA in 56 2/3 innings) while carrying even less impressive underlying metrics.
Avila owns a 4.86 xERA and a 4.83 xFIP to go along with a strikeout-minus-walk rate of just 6.5%. While his raw stuff grades out better than Mahle's, he has struggled to consistently throw strikes, walking 13.7% of opposing hitters and recording a first-pitch strike only 55% of the time.
Mahle owns a 4.24 xERA, a 4.21 xFIP, and a Pitching+ rating of 99 this season. While his road results have been poor, many of those outings have come in highly hitter-friendly environments. In fact, his strikeout-minus-walk rate and hard-hit rate have both been better away from home, suggesting his road struggles have been somewhat misleading. With an unsustainably high .406 BABIP in road starts, it seems that the disparity in effectiveness may not be worth reading into.
Neither bullpen has been particularly effective this season, but the Royals' relief corps arguably represents another edge for San Francisco. Over the last 30 days, Kansas City's bullpen has pitched to a 6.89 ERA and owns the league's worst xFIP at 5.12.
Picks: Giants Moneyline -110 (Bet365, Play to -115)
Reds vs Mariners Picks
After a poor start to the season, Luis Castillo has found his rhythm, pitching to a 3.65 ERA with a 3.53 xERA over his last ten appearances (49 and 2/3 IP). He has also posted a solid 102 Pitching+ rating while limiting opponents to a 31.1% hard-hit rate during that span.
Though Castillo hasn't been at his best at T-Mobile Park this season, his long-term home splits remain excellent. Dating back to 2022, he has consistently posted a lower ERA at home, a reflection of T-Mobile Park's status as one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball.
The matchup also sets up well for Castillo, given that since June 1, the Reds rank last in MLB with an 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching while also striking out at the highest rate in the majors.
In his first full MLB campaign, Chase Burns has lived up to the hype in pitching to an ERA of 2.54 with an xERA of 3.17. It's no secret that he offers elite stuff (113 Stuff+ rating), and he has struck out 28.6% of batters faced while ranking in the 90th percentile in whiff rate.
Since June 1st, Seattle's lineup has hit to a wRC+ of 89 versus right-handed pitching and ranks 23rd in BB/K ratio and 19th in hard-hit rate.
Picks: Under 7.5 Runs -104 (FanDuel, Play to -114)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 21
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- San Francisco Giants Moneyline -110 (Bet365, Play to -115)
- Reds vs Mariners Under 7.5 Runs -104 (FanDuel, Play to -114)
