Angels vs. Tigers Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Shohei Ohtani in Detroit (Wednesday, August 18)
Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
- The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers meet Wednesday night for the second matchup of their three-game series.
- Shohei Ohtani has been great on the mound for the Angels, but he is a candidate for some regression.
- Anthony Dabbundo explains why he's fading Ohtani and the Angels on the road.
Angels vs. Tigers Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET and via DraftKings.|
It’s Shohei Ohtani day in Detroit as the Angels’ right-handed two-way star takes the mound and will bat for Los Angeles in the second game of a three-game set with the Tigers.
Ohtani has really improved with his control and strikeout numbers this season, dropping his ERA below three.
However, based on the quality of contact allowed and runners on base, the Angels right-hander has been a bit fortunate and is due for some regression that could come against Detroit on Wednesday night.
Los Angeles Angels
The Tigers showed on Tuesday night in the first game of this series that they don’t have much respect for the rest of the Angels lineup around Ohtani. They stayed away from Ohtani by pitching around him or intentionally walking him in multiple at-bats.
Jo Adell’s grand slam broke the game open on Tuesday night, but the rest of the LAA lineup hasn’t produced much around Ohtani.
They’re in the bottom half of offenses away from home, and most of their lefty success came earlier in the year and has since regressed, especially without powerful right-handed bats Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon in the lineup.
Ohtani’s xERA is almost a half run higher than his actual, and he’s allowed more hard contact than you’d like to see from a supposedly elite pitcher. His chase and whiff rate isn’t as good as you’d expect for a pitcher with his stuff.
Detroit has been consistently underrated in the market following a horrid start to the season. After its 9-24 start, Detroit has played above .500 baseball and proven to be a respectable foe in the AL Central.
One reason why has been the emergence of left-handed starter Tarik Skubal, who struggled early in the season but has shown dramatic improvement in his last few starts. Skubal shut down both Baltimore and Boston in back-to-back starts, allowing zero earned runs in 11 innings.
When Skubal keeps his walks down, he’s a much more effective pitcher, as he only walked two in his last two starts. The Angels are bottom five in walk rate against lefties, and while they have shown some power against southpaws, most of that success came early in the year as they’ve tailed off recently against lefties.
Detroit is above average in walk rate for the season, one spot where Ohtani has run into trouble in the past. His walk rate is down this year, but the right-hander has a tendency to lose the zone and run into some trouble when he does.
The Tigers don’t hit a ton of home runs, but they are second-highest in MLB against right-handers in line drive rate. That’s a sign they’re making solid contact, and Ohtani does rank in the bottom 20th percentile in hard hit rate allowed. He’s vulnerable to hard contact and the Tigers have been quite good at generating that since mid-May.
Ohtani’s .214 BABIP allowed in the last two starts suggests that he’s going to start allowing some more runs, and this Detroit team should be able to get after him early.
The Angels bullpen, despite modest improvement of late, cannot be trusted, with Detroit having the edge if the game is tied late.
The Angels rank in the bottom third in offense away from home and are overvalued here because of Ohtani’s start. Detroit is my pick to take game two of the series.
Pick: Detroit ML (+110 or better)