Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, March 25.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview the opening night game on Netflix between the Giants and Yankees.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday and Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks for Opening Day — Wednesday, March 25
Yankees vs Giants Picks
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7 -102o / -120u | -122 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7 -102o / -120u | +104 |
Max Fried (LHP) vs Logan Webb (RHP)
I project an edge in only a handful of games across the 15 that currently have lines in the first three days of the 2026 MLB season, and the Yankees are the lone favorite to pop up as a moneyline edge in my model.
New York has the better lineup, particularly given the relative offensive splits against the handedness of the respective starting pitchers. The Yankees have just two below-average hitters against right-handed pitching, while the Giants have four below-average bats against lefties (average 117 vs. 102 wRC+)
Moreover, while Logan Webb projects as a slightly more effective pitcher than Max Fried, neither will go more than around five innings in their first starts of the year, and the Yankees' relief pitching is both better and deeper; five of the seven and six of the nine best relievers in this matchup are in the away bullpen.
The Yankees are also the more athletic team, both in the field and on the basepaths; a defensive infield featuring Rafael Devers at first base (29 career games played), Luis Arraez at second base (combined -5 DRS or Defensive Runs Saved in 56 games played over the past two years), and Willy Adames at shortstop (combined -18 DRS over the past two years) is a potentially disastrous combination behind Webb (Career 57.1% groundball rate). Harrison Bader (+6 DRS in Center Field in 2026) pushes Jung Hoo Lee (-18 DRS in Center Field last season) to a corner where he belongs. Still, Heliot Ramos (-6 in left field in 2026) ranked among the worst left fielders last season, after finishing among the worst center fielders (-15) in 2024.
Pitch frame god Patrick Bailey (No. 1 among catchers with 19 DRS in 2025, and 20 in 2024) could also see his value decrease in the ABS era; I'd love to bet the Yankees hitters to challenge more than 2.5 calls successfully on Wednesday.
patrick bailey frame god pic.twitter.com/hh4IcVmURZ
— Ant (@MrAnthony555) July 28, 2024
Bailey's pitch framing is worth about 1% to the Giants' win probability in any matchup, and if ABS neutralizes that ability, I'd make the Yankees closer to -150 in this matchup.
Still, I would take them up to -128 (you can call it -130), at a two percent edge compared to my projection for Wednesday night.
I would also consider betting an under near 7.5 (-120), or 7 at plus money.
Pick: New York Yankees -120 (Caesars)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, May 27
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- New York Yankees (-120, Risk 1u), BetMGM, bet to -128
- Max Fried, Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150, 0.1u), Fanatics, bet to -160
- Logan Webb, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-136, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -150
