The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on May 10, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Marlins are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction
- Nationals vs Marlins Pick: Marlins ML (-134; play to -160)
My Nationals vs Marlins best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Marlins Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +116 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -134 |
- Nationals vs Marlins moneyline: Nationals +116, Marlins -134
- Nationals vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Nationals vs Marlins spread: Nationals +1.5 (-192), Marlins -1.5 (+158)
Nationals vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| RHP Cade Cavalli (WSH) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.15/3.78 | ERA / xERA | 4.01/3.45 |
| 3.10/4.24 | FIP / xFIP | 3.85/4.43 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 8.3% |
| 44.7% | GB% | 47.8% |
| .402 | BABIP | .277 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 92 | Location+ | 102 |
Nationals vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Nationals vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
Rubber match? Nothing. The Nationals took Game 1 of this in-division clash and the Marlins rallied from a 4-0 deficit to steal Game 2.
The Nationals will give Cade Cavalli the ball to finish the series. Cavalli has the making of a top-of-the-rotation arm. He averages just shy of 97 mph on his four seamer with a towering 6'4", 223 pound frame.
The 27-year-old has a 4.15 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 3.10 FIP. A big part of FIP is tied to home runs and Cavalli has given up just one in 34 ⅓ innings. In 2025, Cavalli struck out just 7.40 per nine, which is up to a dazzling 10.38 this year. However, his BB/9 also jumped from 2.77 to 4.41. That leads to some shorter outings from the Nationals’ best starter.
This Washington lineup goes as James Wood and CJ Abrams go. Wood and Abrams each tallied two hits in Saturday’s loss, in which the Nationals scored seven runs. Wood also started the game off with a long ball — his 11th of the season.
Over the last two weeks, the Nationals have fallen in love with the three true outcomes, ranking 14th in MLB with 20 homers, 28th with a 24% strikeout rate and fifth with a 10.7% walk rate.
I don’t expect the Nationals to hit many long balls in the series finale, as Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara is a master at keeping the ball on the ground. Unfortunate luck has been the story of the past few seasons for Alcantara. He has a 4.01 ERA with a strong 3.45 xERA and a 3.85 FIP this year.
Now, a lot is left to fate since Alcantara pitches to contact, as his 6.27 K/9 is well below league average. The good news for Alcantara is that his HR/9 is down to 0.70 from 1.13 last year.
The improvements Alcantara has made in 2026 have made him a legitimate top of the rotation arm again. He limits teams to a 5.5% barrel rate (73rd percentile) with a 36.8% hard hit rate (63rd) and a 47% ground ball rate (70th). Soft contact on the ground means good things for Sandy.
Miami got some good news from its bats on Saturday, with Kyle Stowers hitting a homer and crushing another hard hit ball to center field. Hitting for power has been a problem for Miami, but it hammered three homers on Saturday. If Stowers and Jakob Marsee, who each went deep in the win get hot, that’s a huge boost.
The three best hitters for the Marlins this year are high-contact threats Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez and breakout stud Liam Hicks. Edwards and Lopez are hitting over .300 and Hicks leads the team with nine homers and a dazzling 157 wRC+.
The line prices the Marlins at -134, which I think is strong value. Cavalli has some serious blow up potential with his walk issues — and Alcantara could limit a Nationals lineup that’s been very home run or bust of late. If Alcantara stays in the zone, he’ll contain this Washington lineup.
Pick: Marlins ML (-134; play to -160)
