The Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 30, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Brewers Pick: Lean Under 8 or Better
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -215 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +106 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +176 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -124 |
- Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline: Diamondbacks +106, Brewers -124
- Diamondbacks vs Brewers over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Diamondbacks vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+176), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-215)
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Pitchers
| Michael Soroka (RHP, ARI) | Stat | Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.60 / 4.61 | ERA / xERA | 3.77 / 3.06 |
| 2.68 / 2.94 | FIP / xFIP | 4.06 / 4.50 |
| 23.5% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 37.1% | GB% | 31.0% |
| .333 | BABIP | .235 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
We’re all familiar with the Michael Soroka story.
He was a rookie of the year candidate in 2019 before tearing his Achilles in August of that year against the Mets. That was just the start of his injury issues, as he pitched just 46 major league innings from 2020 through 2023 and was unable to return to his previous heights afterward.
That is, until he moved into the White Sox bullpen and sort of reinvented himself.
2025 went better, starting the year in the Washington rotation but ending it in the Chicago (NL) bullpen.
From a peripheral standpoint, Soroka’s 2026 is off to an even better start, carrying a 23.5% K-BB through five starts, matching his 2.60 ERA with contact-neutral estimators (2.97 SIERA, 2.95 xFIP, and even a 2.69 FIP), but also a bit fortunate that just two of his nine barrels (12.7%) have left the park. Soroka’s 4.60 xERA is quite a bit higher than everything else.
Throwing a mph harder than when he came into the league (93.9 vs 92.9), Soroka has transitioned from a sinker baller to more of a four-seam (35%)/curveball (31.8%) guy, picking up the latter pitch last season (Statcast sees it as more of a slurve than Fangraphs) and dropping his sinker usage to a career low 9.8% this year.
He’ll throw the changeup more to LHBs and sinker more to RHBs, but otherwise will throw his other three pitches pretty much evenly to batters from either side of the plate.
The pitch modeling is just average (4.10 Bot ERA, 98 Pitching+), lacking in pure stuff (44 PB, 95 Stuff+), but he's been good with command and location (55, 107).
PitchingBot sees Soroka’s arsenal as more tightly packed with overall grades from 49 to 57 on his five pitches, while Pitching+ ranges from 75 (changeup) to 119 on his new cutter.
Soroka’s fastball is his second-worst graded pitch by either pitch modeling system (51, 92) and has suffered the most damage this season (-1.3 RV/100). The Brewers are just middle of the pack against the heat (0.07 wFA/C), but it’s their best mark against any of his pitches and likely where he would have the most trouble against this lineup.
Fortunately, one of Milwaukee’s two biggest fastball mashers, Christian Yelich, is out, though Jake Buaers has done the most fastball damage since last year (1.53 wFA/C).
The Brewers are also still missing Jackson Chourio, which is thinning this lineup a bit. In fact, they have a mere 99 wRC+ at home and 102 vs RHP this season, while the projected lineup has a 103 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and 107 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days.
It should be a navigable spot against a low-powered lineup (projected .144 ISO vs RHP since 2025) with some strikeouts (22.5% on average).
The one problem Soroka may have is if Milwaukee offers a predominantly left-handed lineup (Rotowire projecting six). A large platoon split has seen batters from that side within a point of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, with RHBs within two points of .270.
Soroka is one of only six pitchers to have already accumulated -3 Net Bases Prevented or more, making him one of the worst at holding runners. In a day game after a night game, I’m projecting James McCann behind the plate.
Known for a stronger arm earlier in his career, McCann has accumulated -1 Throwing Runs over the last three seasons. If it’s Adrian Del Castillo, he has also accumulated -1 Throwing Runs over 428 career innings behind the plate.
The Brewers are a solid base-running team with only William Contreras sporting a negative BsR and a number of base-stealing threats with Garrett Mitchell, David Hamilton, and Brandon Lockridge already accumulating one Base Stealing Run.
Arizona has the better defense of the two teams. Their four Runs Prevented and five OAA are in the top third of the league with Thursday’s projected lineup at +3 Fielding Run Value. Surprisingly, Nolan Arenado (-2) has been the team’s worst defender and Alek Thomas (+3) their best.
Wednesday night’s game is still ongoing as I write this, but with Eduardo Rodriguez failing to go five, the Diamondbacks have already used several relievers (Ginkel, Morillo, Clarke), though they threw only 20 pitches on Tuesday after Monday off.
While the Arizona relief corps has one of the worst ERAs in the league (5.21), underlying numbers place them closer to the middle of the pack (4.51 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, 3.79 SIERA).
That FIP tells the story of a bullpen that has allowed too many home runs, with 16 surrendered, tied for sixth-most in the majors.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Brandon Woodruff has had his own troubling recent injury issues, missing nearly two years with a shoulder injury.
The stuff is not the same. Woodruff returned down 2.7 mph last year and has dropped another 0.6 mph in 2026, with pitch modeling confirming the deterioration of his arsenal:
- 2024: 3.20 Bot ERA, 114 Pitching+
- 2025: 3.70, 102
- 2026: 4.22, 98
However, you couldn’t tell by the results (3.20 ERA) or even the peripherals (26.8%) last year. Woodruff even ran just a 2.20 xERA in 2025 with a 35.7 HardHit% (7.0% Barrels/BBE).
It hasn’t been as rosy this year. Woodruff is still sporting a 3.70 ERA and 3.05 xERA, with a similar contact profile, but worse contact-neutral estimators (4.28 SIERA, 4.51 xFIP, 4.85 dERA), and a significant drop in his K-BB (14.8%) and GB (31%) rates.
However, he’s consistently had a swinging strike rate between 10% and 11.3% in each start, with the latter just last time out against the Pirates, so he should be able to push that K/SwStr up from 1.88 to 2.0 at some point (2.32 career).
Despite the drop in velocity, Woodruff is throwing his fastball 42.1% of the time (most since 2018, his first full season, followed by changeups (20.6%), sinkers (19.5%), and a cutter (11.4%) he picked up last year.
They all grade between 47 and 55 on the PitchingBot scale, and 93 to 103 via Pitching+.
Matching his run values on those pitches against the Arizona lineup, the sinker may be the largest culprit. It’s a -4 Run Value pitch for Woodruff already. In a limited sample, Ildemaro Vargas has been one of the most dangerous sinker mashers since last year (3.47 wSI/C).
Vargas has been off to an incredible start (205 wRC+ L30 days) and is one of five projected Diamondbacks (Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Jose Fernandez) exceeding a 120 wRC+ against RHP since last season, though the remaining four are all in the 80s.
Overall, the projected nine average a 110 wRC+ and 184 ISO vs RHP since last season, though Arizona has just an 84 team wRC+ on the road and 89 vs RHP this year. Five of the first six projected batters strike out less than 20% of the time against RHP (since 2025).
Woodruff has been average at holding runners (0 NBP). William Contreras has been one of the best throwing catchers in the league this year (2 CA Above Average), but he and Gary Sanchez may swap spots in a day game after a night game.
Similar to McCann, also formerly known for a strong arm, Sanchez has accumulated -1 Throwing Runs over the last three seasons.
The Diamondbacks are also a strong base-running team behind Carroll, who is perennially one of the best base stealers in the league and one of the best base runners overall. Perdomo and Alek Thomas can also steal bases.
Normally a strong defensive team, the Brewers sit at just one Run Prevented and OAA (14th), with the projected defense at an even 0 FRV. Bauers (-3) and Sanchez (-2) have been the biggest offenders, the latter in just 48 innings behind the plate this year.
Brice Turang and Luis Rengifo both lead the team at 2 FRV each.
The Brewers also used just two relievers on Tuesday and three more on Wednesday so far, after Monday’s off day.
While Trevor Megill has had some hard contact problems (4.53 xERA, 3.39 FIP), the Milwaukee pen has been one of the better pens in the league with their 3.61 FIP/3.97 xFIP/3.83 SIERA combination sneaking just inside the top third of the league.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Milwaukee is one of the more negative run environments in the league when the roof is closed, with a 92 Park Run Factor (Statcast 3-yr rolling). With a forecast in the mid-40s, that’s exactly what the roof will be.
Even more in favor of the pitchers’ advantage, Mike Estabrook is one of the most pitcher-friendly umpires in the league.
These are two of the more difficult pitchers I’ve been tasked with evaluating this season, if you couldn’t tell from the word count so far.
I believe Soroka may be the better pitcher at this point by nearly one-third of a run. The Brewers do get that third of a run back in bullpen edge, though, and neither pitcher has averaged six innings per start since last year.
Offense and base running are about a wash, too. Arizona’s defensive edge is moved back towards Milwaukee when considering home-field advantage.
Overall, I can’t get far from even for either F5 ML (where I slightly favor Arizona) or full game (wher I very slightly favor Milwaukee). I don’t see any edge in either market.
With Soroka’s 29.6% strikeout rate coming with just a 10.5 SwStr% and unexceptional 17.3 CStr%, I’m expecting some regression in his strikeout rate and see his strikeout prop of 5.5 as fair.
I have Woodruff closer to five, but his prop is -174 for over 4.5.
If forced to make a play on this game, environment and umpiring have me closer to 7 than the 7.5 being offered by the market. But it's less of a gap than what I’d usually look for. Even money might tempt me, and eight or better would get me there.
Alternatively, I'm generally not one for batter props, but don’t hate a total base or H+R+RBI venture involving Vargas, who never walks or strikes out and isn’t hitting the ball any harder (35.6%), but is already one barrel away from his career high of six and is putting it on the ground at a career low 40.6%.
Pick: Lean Under 8 or Better
