The Arizona Diamondbacks (16-14) and New York Mets (21-10) play their series finale on Thursday, May 1, at Citi Field. First pitch on Thursday is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Thursday's Diamondbacks-Mets game features the best starting pitching matchup of the day with Zac Gallen and Kodai Senga. Gallen's had a spotty season thus far — his high point a 13-strikeout performance against the New York Yankees — while Senga enters with a 1.26 ERA.
Find my Diamondbacks vs Mets prediction for Thursday below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Mets pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+135; bet to +100)
My Diamondbacks vs Mets best bet for Thursday is the Diamondbacks moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) | Stat | RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.57/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 1.26/2.86 |
| 4.41/4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 2.84/3.96 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 14% | K-BB% | 14.4% |
| 30.4% | GB% | 46.1% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 104 | Location+ | 99 |
Sean Paul’s Diamondbacks vs Mets Preview
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Gallen on the Decline?
Zac Gallen is possibly the streakiest pitcher in baseball. For stretches, Gallen is unhittable, but it doesn’t matter how hittable or unhittable a pitcher is if he’s walking 4.18 batters per nine.
Gallen doesn’t stay in the zone enough and it regularly gets him in trouble. He’s still generating swing and misses, ranking in the 69th percentile in whiff rate and 63rd in K rate.
Brighter days could be ahead as Gallen enters Thursday with a 5.57 ERA but a 4.03 xERA in six outings. But the bigger story is Gallen's stuff has been on a downward spiral since 2022.
He posted a strong 105 Stuff+ in 2022 — that's incrementally dropped all the way to 88 this year. He was at 92 last year, so it's not like 88 is an unsustainable figure. His stuff just isn't what it used to be.
The Diamondbacks should be happy they face a right-hander in Kodai Senga, as it took getting deep in the Mets' bullpen to score on Wednesday.
Arizona ranks third in MLB with a 122 wRC+ against right-handers compared to 84 against southpaws. The Corbin Carroll, Pavin Smith and Josh Naylor trio regularly causes problems for right-handed pitching.
Smith finally discovered the hitting that made him a top prospect for the Diamondbacks. He boasts a team-best 212 wRC+ versus righties.
The real key? It’s the addition Josh Naylor.
Going from Christian Walker to Naylor was the perfect swap for Arizona. Naylor strikes out just 11% of the time versus right-handed pitching with four homers and a 12% walk rate.
I'm a big-time believer in Arizona's offense. The fact that its crushing righties to this degree with an MVP candidate (Ketel Marte) on the shelf is impressive.
Mets Betting Preview: New-Look Senga
The Mets didn’t want to wear out their ace, Kodai Senga, so they gave him an extra day by moving his start from Wednesday to Thursday.
Senga's fully taken on that ace role thus far, leading the Mets with a dazzling 1.26 ERA.
Will Senga post a sub 2.00 era all year? Probably not.
His xERA is 2.86 and most of his other percentile rankings are good, but not great. That said, he's clearly established himself as the "guy" for the Mets rotation.
Senga seems to have changed his pitching profile a bit. He was always a heavy strikeout pitcher, dating to his NPB days. In his rookie year in MLB, Senga struck out 10.93 per nine, but he's down to 7.85 per nine thus far in 2025.
On the other side of the coin, Senga is pitching to contact more. He walked a robust 4.17 batters per nine in 2023, which is down to 2.83 this year. It's probably higher than Senga wants, but it's allowing him to pitch deeper into games by being less fine with his pitches and live with pitching to contact.
It's worth noting that Senga's stuff is a bit down from 2023. His patented ghost fork had a 126 Stuff+ last year; it's down to 114 this year. As the season progresses, I'm curious if Senga's ghost fork regains its old form.
New York had top-10 offense — with a 110 wRC+ — in April. The problem is the Mets' offense is top-heavy, which can be good or bad depending on your view of it.
There's the obvious good with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor posting MVP numbers. Juan Soto is still rounding into form with a 120 wRC+ entering Thursday.
The problem arises from the bottom of the lineup's lack of consistency. There's also the possibility that Alonso can't sustain his current pace.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets certainly have the pitching advantage with Senga, but that doesn’t mean everything. They lost games to the Marlins and Nationals as heavy favorites with Senga on the rubber.
Here, I’m looking to back one of the elite offenses in baseball in what should be a favorable matchup against a righty. Even if that righty is one as dominant as Senga, the Diamondbacks will put him to work and make him throw strikes.
Arizona will remain patient and gladly take free passes if Senga can’t throw strikes.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+135; bet to +100)
Moneyline
My best bet for this game is the Diamondbacks moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no pick for the run line.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on betting the game total.
