Marky’s Wednesday Forecast: Detroit May Feel Alberto’s Wrath
The Highlights
- Five ballparks feature Weather Ratings above 65, led by Coors Field (obviously), Comerica Park and Kauffman Stadium.
- The Astros-Yankees game is the only one of the night with a Weather Rating below 40.
- Despite good conditions for hitting, the Angels-Tigers game may be hit by Subtropical Storm Alberto.
Today features an interesting mix of weather, from great, to bad, to … subtropical?
It's my job to help you make money off Mother Nature so you don't have to live an indigent lifestyle. Yes, indigent … I signed up for a word-of-the-day email at Merriam-Webster following my spelling bee research, so get ready for a lot of snobby fancy words coming your way.
Good Weather
- Giants at Rockies: 91
- Angels at Tigers: 81
- Twins at Royals: 77
- Cubs at Pirates: 72
- Mets at Braves: 67
Once again, I think the whole Coors Field thing explains itself. With Rockies ace Jon Gray on the hill, 56% of bets and 64% of dollars are on the under and the total has fallen from 11.5 to 10.5 at Pinnacle.
The Angels-Tigers game has a few interesting factors going for it, though:
A) Shohei Ohtani is pitching
2) The Weather Rating is off the charts for a non-Coors game
D) The wind is blowing in at more than 10 mph
I created trends on FantasyLabs for both hitters and pitchers in games with a Weather Rating of at least 75 as well as winds blowing in more than 5 mph. I would've done 10 mph, but there have been only two such games featuring those criteria since 2014 …
- Hitters WR of 75+: Plus/Minus +0.89, 44.0% consistency
- Hitters WR 75+ and wind: +1.08, 46.0% consistency
Looks like the wind blowing in has not hindered hitters' abilities to create value. How about pitchers?
- Pitchers WR of 75+: Plus/Minus -2.12, 44.0% consistency
- Pitchers WR of 75+ and wind: -3.85, 40.0% consistency
Looks like the wind hasn't helped pitchers at all. Very interesting stuff.
The total opened at 9, but the under has seen nearly 60% of bets and 90% of dollars, dropping it to 8.5. There is also a chance of rain, which we will get into more detail later.
As was the case last night, the Twins-Royals game will once again bring lovely hitting weather. However, the two teams couldn't use the weather to their advantage one bit yesterday, as Kansas City won, 2-1, in extras. The temperature will be in the 80s, and winds will be blowing to right-center at a pretty good pace. The total has remained at 9 despite 61% of bets on the under.
Poor Weather
There's just one game with a weather rating below 40:
- Astros at Yankees: 29
The batters in the Bronx will have a doubly hard time, as Dallas Keuchel and Luis Severino take the hill in the worst atmospheric conditions for hitting tonight. Though the 6:35 p.m. ET game isn't on the nighttime DFS slate, bettors are interested in the under. With 52% of bets and 77% of dollars wagered taking under 8 (-120), I wouldn't be surprised to see this total dip down to 7.5.
Rain?
I was right about there being rain in Atlanta yesterday! Look at me, a real-life meteorologist predicting rain and whatnot.
Here are the highest chances of precipitation tonight:
- Angels at Tigers: 20%
- Mets at Braves: 12%
- Giants at Rockies: 10%
- Cubs at Pirates: 10%
- Nationals at Orioles: 8%
With Ohtani a popular pitcher in DFS, I've done a deeper dive in the Detroit forecast. This game scares me because there's a chance the remnants Subtropical Storm Alberto reach Detroit at some point during the game, which would bring thunderstorms (potentially severe) and heavy rain. One local Detroit station is even eyeing a risk for tornadoes. This game has a legit chance for delays and even a rainout.
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