Cuba will play Canada in the World Baseball Classic on Wednesday, March 11, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The game will start at 3 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS2.
Canada is a -160 Moneyline favorite and a -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs
Here's my Cuba vs Canada prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 11, 2026.
Cuba vs Canada Prediction
- My Pick: F5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-115, DraftKings; Play to -125)
My Cuba vs Canada best bet is on the first five innings total under.
Cuba vs Canada Odds
| Cuba Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -160 |
- Cuba vs Canada Moneyline: Cuba +130, Canada -160
- Cuba vs Canada Total: 8.5 (-105o/-115u)
- Cuba vs Canada Spread: Cuba +1.5 (-120), Canada -1.5 (+100)
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Cuba vs Canada World Baseball Classic Picks
Cuba Betting Preview
Cuba held a consensus price of +250 to advance from the group stage entering the tournament. With that in mind, earning wins over Panama and Colombia, as well as a 4-1 loss Monday versus Puerto Rico, has placed it in a better situation than was expected entering the tournament.
It is now +160 to advance, given that a win in any fashion from this matchup will mean earning a spot in the quarterfinals.
Cuba's lineup projects as a clear weakness relative to Canada's, as Yoan Moncada is the only MLB regular. It has fared well to scrape out an average of 3.66 runs per game thus far in the tournament, thanks mainly to some timely slugging versus Colombia. In the tournament, it holds a batting average of .170, an OPS of .659 and has struck out 27% of the time.
Action Network's Sean Zerillo projects Cuba's lineup to hold a wRC+ just south of 70 at the MLB level, and the lineup has not played at a level greater than expected statistically. Zerillo has had a great start to the tournament with a 32.53% ROI across 51 picks, and his work on the tournament is definitely worth checking out.
While Cuba's lineup does look fairly unconvincing, it undoubtedly has a fighting chance in this critical matchup with Livan Moinelo on the mound. Moinelo was named MVP of NPB in 2025, after pitching to a 1.46 ERA across 167 innings, with a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 20.3%, and a WHIP of 0.92.
Moinelo pitched 3 2/3 innings versus Panama in the tournament opener and allowed zero earned runs and two hits.
Moinelo features a strong pitch mix led by a nasty curveball, a plus slider, as well as a changeup and four-seamer.
Cuba also has a fairly strong bullpen relative to the rest of Group A, which is in solid shape after an off-day Tuesday.
Canada Betting Preview
Canada's hopes of getting out of the group stage for the first time in five trips to the WBC will lie with Cal Quantrill. That doesn't exactly offer the most comforting situation for Canadian faithful, but it is important to keep in mind Quantrill is facing off against a lineup projected to be a fair bit worse than the 2025 Colorado Rockies.
Quantrill pitched to a 5.76 xERA and 4.89 xFIP across 117 and 2/3 innings at the MLB level last season. He held a Stuff+ rating of 88, and a Pitching+ rating of 89.
Relative to the rest of Group A, Canada's lineup looks quite strong on paper. It is compiled mainly of big-league talents, led by captain Josh Naylor, who is among the most threatening bats in Pool A. Zerillo projects the unit at wRC+ of 91 at the MLB level, which ranks at the top of Pool A.
Canada has displayed a patient and disciplined approach at the plate in this tournament, and will certainly hope to lean on that strength in attempting to chase Moinelo from this matchup early. It walked in a pair of critical runs in Tuesday's win over Puerto Rico, and holds a walk rate of 11.5% in the tournament.
While a disciplined approach at the plate has been Canada's greatest strength offensively, it has slugged .435, and the approach has looked somewhat similar to the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays, who some members of the team noted as a source of inspiration entering the tournament.
How To Bet My Cuba vs Canada Pick
From a sides perspective, the prices on this game look relatively fair. Though we have not seen Moinelo at the MLB level, it is extremely unlikely Quantrill would replicate his results in the NPB, and Cuba has a pitching edge in that regard.
Cuba's lineup still looks highly unformidable though, and has not looked as convincing as a 2-1 record suggests thus far in the tournament. Though Quantrill is one of the MLB's worst starters, it seems reasonable to believe that he can effectively work twice through the lineup in this matchup.
A first five innings total of 4.5 looks a little high, and at -115 there appears to be value backing the under. Canada could struggle to create much off of Moinelo, while Quantrill may also fare relatively well versus Cuba's soft lineup.
Pick: F5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-115, DraftKings; Play to -125)
