Venezuela will play the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on Wednesday, March 11, at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida.
The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
The Dominican Republic is a -215 Moneyline favorite and an -2.5 (+100) run line favorite. The total is set at 11.
Here's my Venezuela vs Dominican Republic prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 11, 2026.
Venezuela vs Dominican Republic Prediction
- My Pick: Venezuela +2.5 (-130 or Better)
My Venezuela vs Dominican Republic best bet is on Venezuela to cover the spread.
Venezuela vs Dominican Republic Odds
| Dominican Republic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +100 | 11 -110 / -110 | -215 |
| Venezuela Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -120 | 11 -110 / -110 | +170 |
- Venezuela vs Dominican Republic Moneyline: Venezuela +170, Dominican Republic -215
- Venezuela vs Dominican Republic Run Line: Venezuela +2.5 (-120), Dominican Republic -2.5 (+100)
- Venezuela vs Dominican Republic Total: 11 (-110 / -110)
Venezuela vs Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Picks
What is effectively the Pool D title game between these South American powers is arguably the best game of the entire pool stage.
Both teams are loaded with MLB All-Stars, and both will deploy their best available remaining arms in a game that determines quarterfinal seeding and opponent.
Sandy Alcántara (projected 3.97 FIP, 13.0% K-BB%) gets the start at his home park, loanDepot in Miami, giving the Dominican Republic a slight mound familiarity edge for the first four to five innings.
Eduardo Rodriguez (4.28 FIP, 12.6% K-BB%) counters for Venezuela with a full-strength bullpen behind him: Danny Palencia (3.68 FIP) and Eduard Bazardo (3.80), in particular, are rested after being held back from the Nicaragua game.
The Dominican pen is deeper, but for some reason, Albert Pujols decided to deploy Gregory Soto and Carlos Estevez in a 10-1 win over Israel on the same day — both teams were off on Tuesday.
The primary difference in the matchup is the lineups: the Dominican Republic ranks second in my tournament offense ratings, while Venezuela ranks fourth. But there is more than a 10-point gap in projected wRC+ between the two, which is larger than my gap between Venezuela and Mexico, for instance.
This game is close enough that I don't see a strong moneyline edge on either side. I would lean to Venezuela at current prices, but I also gave out the Dominican Republic to win Pool D at -143, so we're ahead of market expectations with futures tickets on two of three games on Wednesday.
Still, while I lean toward the sides I originally bet futures on in the other games, I do think this line is a bit wide. And whether you have existing futures or not, I'd consider middleing the pool winner bet with a Venezuela spread bet, or wait for a peak moneyline price (north of +200) on the underdog closer to first pitch.
Pick: Venezuela +2.5 (-130 or Better)
