Thursday Sharp Report: Pros Hammering Two Home Dogs
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Yesterday was a perfect example of why sharp bettors love baseball so much. Wiseguys went 2-2 with their plays, but because they focused on plus-money dogs (Angels +130, White Sox +166) and avoided big favorites, they turned a profit of +0.86 units. This may not seem like much, but when you compound it over the course of a 2,430 game regular season, it adds up bigly when all is said and done.
After analyzing Thursday’s 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, starting at 3:40 and 8:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:20 p.m. ET
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (+102)
3:40 p.m. ET
The public wants nothing to do with the 1-5 Padres. But wiseguys see a profitable buy-low opportunity. San Diego is only getting 28% of bets but it accounts for 39% dollars, a sign of smart money taking the home dog. Using our Sports Insights bet signals, we noticed a trio of steam and reverse line moves on the Fathers at Sportsbook, CRIS and BetUs. Despite the heavy betting on Colorado, the line has remained stagnant. This “line freeze” indicates sharp liability on San Diego.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (+102)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Cubs have lost two in a row, are well-rested (they haven’t played since Monday) and send Jon Lester to the mound. Naturally, public bettors like them to bounce back and fly the W flag once again. Not the sharps. They see contrarian value on the home divisional dog. The Brewers are only getting 38% of bets but it accounts for 60% of dollars, signaling big sharp money on Ryan Braun and company. Wiseguys got down hard on Milwaukee +112 at 5Dimes and +108 at BetOnline, causing market-wide reserve line movement in their favor.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Thirsty for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the entire board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully-customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
If you have any questions about Sports Insights, the Live Hangouts or betting strategies in general you can find me on Twitter @Josh_Insights
Pictured: Brewers celebrate a recent win over the San Diego Padres