The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds on May 19, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Phillies are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Phillies Prediction
- Reds vs Phillies Picks: Chase Burns Over 1.5 Walks, Chase Burns Over 1.5 ER, Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits
My Reds vs Phillies best bets are Chase Burns Over 1.5 Walks, Chase Burns Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed and Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Phillies Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -142 |
- Reds vs Phillies moneyline: Reds +120, Phillies -142
- Reds vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Reds vs Phillies spread: Reds +1.5 (-176), Phillies -1.5 (+146)
Reds vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chase Burns (CIN) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 1.87/2.97 | ERA / xERA | 5.07/3.17 |
| 3.52/3.43 | FIP / xFIP | 2.93/2.55 |
| 17.9% | K-BB% | 22.5% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 48.9% |
| .227 | BABIP | .366 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Reds vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
What a pitching matchup we have in this one! Two electric arms capable of huge strikeout totals, but not the most consistent contributors, to say the least.
The Reds send Chase Burns to the hill to face Jesus Luzardo. Burns has been awesome this season with a 1.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in nine starts. He has 55 strikeouts to just 18 walks. He's been excellent.
Burns is mostly a two-pitch guy. He throws 56% four-seamers and 37% sliders overall. And that's okay, you can throw just two pitches when they're both elite. Burns' slider has been particularly ridiculous this year, with a 25.8% SwStr% and a .174 xwOBA allowed.
The thing I can't figure out with Burns is how he's getting so many ground balls. He's at 45.8% this year after being at 43% last year, so that's a significant rise. But the four-seamer and slider mix usually turns into fly balls, and often times bad home run rates.
That hasn't been the case for Burns yet, but I have a feeling he'll give up a dinger or two tonight against this hot Phillies lineup. Burns has given up five of his six homers on the year to lefties.
So this is a bit of an issue for him. If we look at the splits, there's a wild disparity in his walk rate. He has walked just 2.2% of the righties he's faced, but he's walked 13.8% of the lefties. That is wild stuff. And it makes some sense. His slider moves toward the left-handed batters, so it's not nearly as effective.
You'll typically see way fewer sliders thrown from pitchers when they don't have the platoon advantage. So Burns has to throw changeups against lefties (10% usage), and that's a pitch he doesn't control much. He's in the zone way less against lefties as he's looking to make them chase the fastball up or the changeup down. This is a betting angle to capitalize on.
The Reds lineup hits for more power against lefties (.339 xwOBA vs. .323 xwOBA), but they've hit for just a .209 batting average against southpaws this year.
This isn't an imposing lineup, but they're not one of the worst in the league either. Luzardo is a really tough guy to predict. He'll have some of the highest highs and some of the lowest lows among all of the pitchers in the league, and there does not seem to be a good way to know what's coming based on the matchup.
If you're looking for a Reds hitter to bet on, I'll give you Spencer Steer. He's rolling with an .893 OPS over the last month with four homers, a 15% K%, and a 14.6% Brl%. Against lefties for the year, he has a .333/.395/.667 slash line with three bombs in just 43 PAs.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies lineup is really rolling right now. Kyle Schwarber has 20 homers, and Bryce Harper has really come alive with a .950 OPS over the last 30 days. Even Bryson Stott is swinging it well with an .890 OPS in May. This is a lineup that should roll out five lefties against Burns, and their two main guys (Schwarber and Harper) have that platoon advantage.
It's worth taking a look at my "matchups model" on the Phillies side. How do they do against hard-throwing righties with big fastballs and nasty sliders? It turns out, not super well. Harper and Schwarber both have high xwOBA on contact marks (.572 for Schwarber, .510 for Harper), but they whiff a whole lot against these types of pitch mixes.
The Phillies will probably go down on strikes quite a few times tonight. If they get to Burns, I think it will be via the walk and a well-timed homer or two.
Reds vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
We saw the struggles Burns has had throwing strikes to lefties. And problems with lefties aren't what you want to bring to the table against the Phillies.
To be fair, he strikes them out at an elite rate, but there are a lot of walks and a higher home run rate than we should be comfortable with.
That's where I want to go. But the books are slow on the pitcher walks market, so I can't give you a specific bet. I'll keep it general, just be price-conscious when you're shopping.
Picks: Chase Burns Over 1.5 Walks, Chase Burns Over 1.5 ER, Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits
