Monday's slate is loaded with power hitters and great weather, which means I've got some bangers.
Read on for my 3 favorite home run picks today, including predictions for Guardians vs Tigers, Blue Jays vs Yankees, and White Sox vs Mariners on Monday, May 18.
MLB Home Run Props
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Guardians vs. Tigers Home Run Prop
Kevin McGonigle
Over 0.5 Home Runs +790
McGonigle may only have 2 HRs on the season, but the power is there, and he's due for some massive positive regression.
The matchup vs. Slade Cecconi is a big plus for lefty power, as he's allowed a high 1.55 HR/9 in his career.
The weather should be a bit of a downgrade, but these odds more than make up for it. I have the true odds around +650, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 Home Runs +790
Blue Jays vs. Yankees HR Pick
Kazuma Okamoto
Over 0.5 Home Runs +450
Okamoto has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season, and he gets a great spot tonight.
Ryan Weathers has been a gas can for righty power in his career, allowing a high 1.63 HR/9.
This ballpark is about neutral for righty power, and I have the true odds here around +350.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 Home Runs +450
White Sox vs. Mariners Homer Pick
Miguel Vargas
Over 0.5 Home Runs +600
Vargas has been on a tear this season, with 11 bombs in 45 games, and the books clearly haven't caught on yet.
This ballpark is a downgrade for Vargas, and Bryan Woo is a matchup that is slightly below average for righty power (career 1.03 HR/9), but these odds are still too high.
I have the true odds around +500.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Home Runs +600
