The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 18, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Dodgers are favored by -155 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction
- Dodgers vs Padres Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -155 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +130 |
- Dodgers vs Padres moneyline: Dodgers -155, Padres +130
- Dodgers vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Dodgers vs Padres spread: -1.5 (+115), +1.5 (-135)
Dodgers vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | Stat | Michael King (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.60/4.04 | ERA / xERA | 2.63/3.65 |
| 3.92/3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 3.68/3.93 |
| 19.5 | K-BB% | 13.7 |
| 41.8 | GB% | 50 |
| .250 | BABIP | .240 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 108 | Location+ | 96 |
Dodgers vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Yamamoto Due for Positive Regression
Yoshinobu Yamamoto may have struck out eight batters last, but his search for ground balls continues. Even against one of the top ground-ball teams in the league, the San Francisco Giants, the righty rolled them up at a sub-43% clip for a second straight start and remains at a low 40.4% for the year. For context, it's 13 points lower than his 2025 mark, and around four points lower than the league average.
The 23.5% Pull Air% is a huge dilemma as well, considering that number was at an above-average 12.1% last season, and it's all amounted to an ugly .439 Expected Slugging and a bloated, but not terrible, .254 Expected Batting Average.
For a guy who was virtually unhittable last year, this is certainly a concern, and the concerns continue when you look at his pedestrian 24.6% strikeout rate. That number may be on the rise with 16 punchouts coming in his last two starts, spanning 12 1/3 innings, but he's also allowed four homers and eight runs overall in that time.
It doesn't appear that strikeouts are fully mitigating the risk on contact, given the three homers we saw out of a weak Giants offense last turn in the rotation, but perhaps a shift to San Diego, where fly balls go to die, could help.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: King to Cook at Home
Michael King is the complete opposite case in this matchup. Since moving to San Diego, he'd become a firm fly-ball pitcher — coming off a huge 60.9% clip of contact through the air in 2025 –, but this season he's shot his ground-ball rate up to 51.6%. His Pull Air% was sitting around 20% for the last three years — around three points worse than average — but this season he's down at 13.3%.
This has helped King lower his xSLG almost 100 points from .427 to .352, and it's come at virtually no expense. His hard-hit rate is way down, the strikeouts have remained the same, and the only real detractor has been a slight uptick in walks — but King was never a stalwart in that area anyway.
The righty has definitely been better off at home with a 2.35 ERA, and just one of the four homers he's allowed has come in those games. He's also managed to allow all his homers with the bases empty and owns a hefty 80.9% strand rate, but he was at 81.1% last year, so there's probably not much hope there if you're looking for reasons to believe in regression.
We do have to talk about the San Diego Padres offense a bit here, as it's ranked 17th in wRC+ over the last week with a solid seven home runs. That's technically an improvement upon what's been a terribly weird year, considering the Padres have struck out in 23.2% of plate appearances after standing as one of the most disciplined sides last year.
It only seems to be getting worse with the San Diego punching out in 26.8% of plate appearances in that span, and on top of it all, Fernando Tatis is still searching for his first homer.
They're at least hitting .230 in the last week — up from .224 for the season — and if they can keep putting the ball in play, you'd think they can get into the groove again and play for situational hitting. The power certainly seems to be ticking up a hair with Gavin Sheets looking legit and Nick Castellanos slowly emerging from a slumber, but there's still a way to go before this team looks anything like last year's team.
Dodgers vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
The Padres hit the third-fewest fly balls in the league, have struggled mightily with plate discipline, and own just the 14th-ranked home run-to-fly ball ratio in baseball to support their weak power profile. Now, they draw a strikeout artist with some lift-and-pull concerns, but given San Diego's offense and this pitcher's park, the two teams will play in, I see Yamamoto experiencing some positive regression.
On the other side, Michael King has been tremendous, and his ability to keep the ball out of the air should combat a Dodgers team that has surprisingly hit fly-ballers much better than ground-ballers this year — a deviation from a years-long trend.
L.A. remains one of the stronger offenses in the game, but its power numbers are rather unassuming, and with just a .258 average, the chances of a full King blow-up here are slim.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
