Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: High-Scoring Game on Tap at Coors Field?

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: High-Scoring Game on Tap at Coors Field? article feature image

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports.

Coming off a rare off day, as my Pirates-Cubs Over 7 for Monday was postponed due to inclement weather. Although the makeup to be played today features the same pitching matchup at the same time of day, we won’t want to go near that, with the wind change at Wrigley Field making it a less appealing wager. Instead, let’s roll with tonight’s Padres-Rockies matchup from Coors Field.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 8-1-1, +6.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Nova vs. Chatwood Over 7 (Postponed)

All odds of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: Joey Lucchesi (0-0, 2.79 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (0-0, 7.56 ERA)

Just five days ago, these two left-handed hurlers collided at Petco Park in San Diego for their second start of the campaign, with the ensuing result being a pretty surprising pitcher’s duel that culminated in a 3-1 final. Can we expect an encore from both southpaws this evening in the rematch?

Why yes, yes we can.

You see, Tyler Anderson is the ultra-rare type of Rockies pitcher who actually excels when pitching in Colorado, honing an impressive 8-5 record and 3.39 ERA in 19 career starts (and one relief appearance) in his home ballpark. That’s nearly two full runs better than his output (3-7, 5.34 ERA) in road assignments.

Additionally, he also enjoys pitching against tonight’s opponent. Aside from putting up nothing but zeroes over six innings of work in his most recent effort, Anderson has made a habit of flourishing against the Padres since first debuting in the big leagues two years ago. In fact, of any team he’s faced more than twice, Anderson has posted his best numbers versus the Friars, registering a 1.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across four starts spanning a total of 24 innings. Even something close to that would be very beneficial for this under bet.

Meanwhile, rookie Joey Lucchesi will be making his third start with San Diego in this one, and if his first two are any indication, this kid has a pretty nice future ahead. In his last time out, the 24-year-old was particularly stingy, shutting down this same potent Rockies lineup over five shutout innings, yielding a single hit and three walks compared to seven strikeouts.

Of course, it’s a huge difference shifting from Petco Park to Coors Field, but Lucchesi has the stuff to make it happen. Although this is his first taste of the majors, the former fourth-round draft pick has established a fine ground-ball rate throughout his minor league career, usually ending up around 50 percent. Thus far into his big-league journey, that percentage of groundballs hasn’t been as high, but he’s yet to allow a home run.

Lucchesi may also benefit from the fact that the Rockies haven’t gotten in their usual groove offensively. After all, this is a team that is annually hovering around the top of baseball in most major batting categories but through their first 11 ballgames, they rank 19th in runs per game (3.91) and 22nd in team batting average (.232). The Padres can relate, as they’re 23rd in runs per game (3.36) and 20th in average (.233).

With the under currently being 10.5 and featuring -105 odds, you’re better off waiting leading up to first pitch, in case the line bumps up to 11. It’s not going to go back down to 10, which is the number it opened with overnight, and given the juice it has now, settling in at 11 is very possible. Even if that doesn’t happen, I’ll still be betting it at 10.5, relying on a pitching matchup consisting of two southpaws who appear to be trending up.

Play: UNDER 10.5/11