Astros vs Nationals Odds, Prediction | MLB Betting Pick & Preview

The most surprising part of the 2024 MLB season thus far? The Houston Astros own the second-worst record in the American League at 6-14 — only the Chicago White Sox (3-15) have been worse. On Friday, however, Houston welcomes back ace Justin Verlander, who will be making his season debut against MacKenzie Gore and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.

The latest Astros vs Nationals odds have the Astros as -160 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 8. I'll be targeting the moneyline for my Astros vs Nationals prediction — find out why I'm fading Verlander and the Astros for my MLB betting pick.

Welcome back, Justin Verlander. The now 41-year-old starter is back on the bump after starting the season on the injured list. Calling Verlander’s two rehab starts underwhelming is kind; the future first-ballot Hall of Famer owned a 14.14 ERA over seven innings in a start at AA and AAA.

While Verlander yielded poor results, the rehab starts served as his spring training. I wouldn’t focus on the results more than the inner-workings, like his velocity sitting at 94-96 mph on his fastball, with the typical sharp break on his curveball.

The Astros don’t feel the same as usual. It’s just different in 2024. Injuries have played a role, but the most surprising and telling stat is highly priced closer Josh Hader has just one save in two attempts. The Astros just aren’t doing a lot of winning.

The pride of Houston, José Altuve is the one constant. He’s tied with the Red Sox’s Tyler O’Neill for the best wRC+ in baseball at 230. Altuve leads the league with a .388 batting average with five home runs. He’s crushed the ball so far.

One guy who isn’t crushing the ball is Alex Bregman. In a contract year, the Astros third baseman is off to the worst start of his professional career, hitting .250 with a .661 OPS. Among the juiced ball era power hitters, Bregman stands out the most. He hit 41 homers in 2019 and hasn’t come close since the ball became “unjuiced.”

But the Astros' offense is still connecting like usual. Houston boasts the second-highest wRC+ in baseball at 126, only five points behind the first-place Atlanta Braves. The Astros don't strike out and hit home runs, but pitching improvement is what could change Houston's season.

Taking the ball for the Nationals is someone vastly younger than Verlander, 25-year-old MacKenzie Gore. The Nationals secured Gore from the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade, and he’s been phenomenal in 2024. Through three starts, Gore posted a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings, with 23 strikeouts. The underlying numbers lead reason to buy into Gore’s breakout, with a 2.45 FIP and 2.70 xFIP to match the gaudy ERA.

The Nationals" offense is very top-heavy with a pair of left-handed hitters, Jesse Winker and CJ Abrams. Similar to Gore, Washington brought in Abrams in the Soto trade, and his 162 wRC+ is much higher than his career 90 wRC+. It feels like Abrams is a budding star. Beyond Winker and Abrams, the only two Nationals hitters with wRC+’s above 100 is slap hitters Ildemaro Vargas and Luis García Jr. The offense is fairly limited beyond the top two hitters.

A concerning thing is the Nationals getting less than nothing from Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Joey Gallo and Eddie Rosario. All four start games regularly, and they continually stall potential rallies. It’s hard to generate a string of hits when half the lineup isn’t hitting.

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I think the Astros will turn around the terrible start sooner than later, but it won’t begin in Verlander’s season debut. Let’s see how he fares against a big league lineup before assuming he’s back to classic Verlander.

I don’t see why the Astros are -170 road favorites against the Nationals' best pitcher. I’ll gladly take Washington at plus money with Gore on the hill.

Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+130)